doncat Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 29° currently...Above normal high temps last few days but near average night time lows. Been dry for over a week now....still at 6.80" for month and with rain coming by Sunday late, should still finish as high as 8" for month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 16 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Science absolutely helps drive public policy, and in a big way. From anti-smoking campaigns to the food pyramid to exercise recommendations and the dangers of mercury and lead paint, science drives public policy. Problem is, public policy is often too slow to implement changes in a timely fashion. For example, we know teenagers need more sleep than others, and have known this for a long time. Yet schools are only now realizing they should be starting the school day later. We also know that feeding children in school improves outcomes. Yet policy makers argue about this....absolutely no disrespect intended here, you are highly regarded for good reason in these parts. We still haven’t solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/ https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 27F at 600 am Even with the warm air, continue to rack up the nights below freezing count outside the concrete jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Pretty big cold departure shrink in the last 4 days. ............25th...21st EWR....-1.0....-2.1 NYC....-1.2.....-2.7 LGA....-1.2.....-2.5 JFK.....-1.4.....-2.5 ISP......-0.5....-1.4 BDR....-0.9....-2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Soi : -28.39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.2[37.1]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. 41* here at 6am. 40* by 8am. All the models look like horror shows for their durations. Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones. Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor. The first 5-Day period with a BN average T is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north. The warm weather is not a horror show, I just wish it didn't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Chicago went from record snow on Halloween to record warmth around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. Models dont look bad moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We still haven’t solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/ https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition Hard to disagree, but in truth rather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 45 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. I'm sure something will pop up, just hope it isn't a nearly 3 month wait between snows like last year. Overall in terms of snow last year was close to a stinker IMBY, as was the year before. However, a blockbuster winter is probably not likely. We'll know more in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models dont look bad moving forward How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. The 1st week will be mild. The 2nd week and forward are still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. The pattern is more of a bad 70s/80s pattern than a 90s/2000s shutout all out torch. Something may pop at anytime in the next 15 days that produces snow where as we were totally hopeless for large portions of winters the last 20-25 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Day 11-15 models have been underestimating the influence of the SE ridge and WAR the last few years. Like we saw this week, the ridge verified much stronger than the old long range forecasts. This has created the week 2 favorable looking pattern that keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go. 1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th. The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E How long does that last ? It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold or is it in and out after 5 days ? Does the trough just settle down the Rockies once again ? That part is up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go. 1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th. The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold ? or is it in and out after 5 days, settling the trough down the Rockies once again. That part is up for debate. Thanks for the breakdown. Always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 A fitting end to the year of feast or famine precip in the interior: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 CFSv2 is flipping to AN as Dec. ends: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 What a beautiful next few days to take down my Christmas lawn decorations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Gfs is cold and active after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 New GFS starting on Dec 31, 2-3 snow chances and generally near normal for 1st week and well below after the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, North and West said: What a beautiful next few days to take down my Christmas lawn decorations! Don't you keep them up thru the first week of Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, doncat said: Don't you keep them up thru the first week of Jan? Nah... I like them up from Thanksgiving Week until now. Same with my tree. Spending tomorrow and Saturday getting everything down and packed away. I love Christmas and how you're supposed to go through the New Year and Epiphany, but I'm done once the 26th rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, North and West said: Nah... I like them up from Thanksgiving Week until now. Same with my tree. Spending tomorrow and Saturday getting everything down and packed away. I love Christmas and how you're supposed to go through the New Year and Epiphany, but I'm done once the 26th rolls around. Yeah I really enjoy the holidays...feel a big letdown after new years. Have a happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, North and West said: Nah... I like them up from Thanksgiving Week until now. Same with my tree. Spending tomorrow and Saturday getting everything down and packed away. I love Christmas and how you're supposed to go through the New Year and Epiphany, but I'm done once the 26th rolls around. I keep it up to the 1st but that’s it. Starts so early I’m sick of it by even now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Models dont look bad moving forward The day 10 models always look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I keep it up to the 1st but that’s it. Starts so early I’m sick of it by even now Yea... c'est la vie. Funny, with this tranquil weather, and after some snow and ice out here earlier this month, I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Someone tell me when ..we are supposed to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Strong polar vortex and MJO headed for 4/5 doesn’t scream cold for the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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