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Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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28 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Dunno about snow in Chicagoland but this is a cool event regardless :)

Would certainly rather be north of Chicago at this point.

That being said, despite it being late October, I wouldn't assume we are automatically going to see northwest trends because climo or whatever.  There is an unusual amount of cold air dumping in and the "zone" should sort of be established by the initial system.  It is taking a hyperbomb to get these western solutions, and personally I think the Euro/ICON type outcomes represent roughly the western limit.

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Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again 

 

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17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again 

 

This new you is too optimistic.

Not sure how I feel about it.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This new you is too optimistic.

Not sure how I feel about it.

I am shocked you didn't go DAB already.

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34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again 

 

If I can put 5"-6" down in early May I'm a believer in anything.

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I am shocked you didn't go DAB already.

I’m turning over a new leaf.

Following in the footsteps of brother Alek.


.

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12z ICON still has the second storm, albeit MUCH MUCH weaker.

12z CMC has much of Iowa, northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northern Michigan buried in 6+ inches of snow (late week system).  Going to be really bad for the trees and disastrous for the crops.  Not much wind in that system, though.

Also, CMC says siggy ice storm for west central Michigan.

We'll see what the 12z Euro says, although I'm pretty sure the Euro will show what the CMC shows, unless the Euro sides with the ICON and GFS.

One more thing, all the GEFS ensembles show a significant snowstorm for eastern Iowa early next week, while it has the second system to the southeast of Iowa.

 

Early Season Snowstorm 2 (CMC).png

Significant Ice Storm for Michigan.png

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro - Snow precip

Wave #1

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019102512_102_5660_323.thumb.png.135ad67d3465fc48a7afbc2ca578f3d2.png

 

Total after major Halloween storm

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019102512_180_5660_323.thumb.png.0f9ea8dff8b659d90e0e8f586b943b94.png

Late next week's storm is basically a repeat of 1991, except further east and no ice.  Winds gusts not to bad, although enough to aggravate snow stressed trees.

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It seems to me -in my infinite wisdom- that there is a sort of new consensus being reached by the models. The CMC and GFS appear to have quite similar solutions, correct?

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15 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It seems to me -in my infinite wisdom- that there is a sort of new consensus being reached by the models. The CMC and GFS appear to have quite similar solutions, correct?

First system or second system or both?

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

Second...

Oh, I see.  Well, the track is somewhat similar but the CMC is slower, having the snow shield track through on Friday November 1.

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4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

That wouldn't be a terrible track a couple months from now.

I hate these types of situations where you know there will probably be a window of GFS runs that look good for your backyard on its way to joining the other models.  <_<

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After last year, it would hilarious if Missouri of all states cleans up on this storm. They probably never want to see snow after last winter.

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GFS has trended towards the Euro with the first system, keeping and minor snow to IA/WI.

Seems to be agreement among most guidance now with 2nd system as well, with snows for mainly IA/WI and pets of IL/MI potentially.


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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

GFS has trended towards the Euro with the first system, keeping and minor snow to IA/WI.

Seems to be agreement among most guidance now with 2nd system as well, with snows for mainly IA/WI and pets of IL/MI potentially.


.

 

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