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Steve

“Let’s Talk Winter”

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Ok, took longer than 20 seconds but back down to 1-3. That is still too high but way better than saying 3-5!

Now down to “up to an inch” LMAO! Dumb

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Forecast wrong for mt vernon. Wasnt supposed to snow till later tonight. Already snowing and ground is covered

It is about 3-6 hours faster than forecast. Not that surprising.

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I would have to guess a couple inches on the grass. Had fair amount of melt off in the beginning. Mostly pixie dust late afternoon and now. Wind has picked up pretty good.

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Anyone near Dayton is celebrating as we might be getting the heaviest snow rates of the winter, I have pics, but geeze the skies have unzipped tonight! lol

 

EDIT: As promised, we got attacked by a Flizzard, picked up 2" in one hour last night!

20200228_080250_sm.jpg

20200228_080333_sm.jpg

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It was pouring that's for sure. My wife started to shovel what little stuck to the driveway....and I said.....don't forget the snow shoveling rules. She said Huh? Never shovel snow after the 25th of February. The sun angle does the shoveling from hence forward. :P

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One of the most frustrating things about this winter, (and granted there have been many), is the fact that we've had several perfect snowstorm tracks for Ohio but there was just no cold air available to keep it snow.   Instead of HP to our north, Canada continually gets flooded with low pressure and pacific air....it has been the story all winter.

I say this as I look at the models next week....both the gfs and the euro essentially showing 1 or 2 app runners with rain.   

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Last night around the Dayton area was nice.  Cute little snowfall.  This winter, that's all we got.  But I still love epic snowstorms, arctic cold.  Miss those winters...

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From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Absolutely amazing.   Global warming anyone?

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1 hour ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

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That is just unreal 

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13 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 


Insane. Really puts into perspective just how mild of a winter this really was. My dad who lives 45 minutes SE of Champaign recorded 11.3” on the season. This winter really was 2011-2012 all over again. 

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Even more bizarre is that the only measurable snow for Paducah and Evansville so far in 2019-20 came outside of meteorological winter in November.  That November snow (1.2" for Paducah and 1.1" for Evansville) will prevent it from being the least snowy first to last flake season.  Paducah has actually had a few years when only a trace fell in the entire snow season.

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16 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

From PAH

Evansville and Paducah will finish the 2019-2020 winter season (Dec-Feb) with no measurable snow. First time on record for Evansville this has occurred. Tied least snowy winter for Paducah, last set in 1991-1992.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Shout out to JB and the gang at WxBell!   Nice work!

snowmap.JPG

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4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Time to put the analog theory to bed like the SAI. 

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV.    I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them.   Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail.   

This year the AO and the EPO ruled.   A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period.   EPO probably having more weight than the AO.  It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV.    I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them.   Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail.   

This year the AO and the EPO ruled.   A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period.   EPO probably having more weight than the AO.  It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.

How anyone pays Bastard’s group anything for their analog based predictions I’ll never know.

For next Fall,  here is what I want to see or not see:

NO frickin warm pool of water off Alaska. When it’s there in the Fall, it goes away just in time for winter (at least last 2 yrs it has).

Give me a mild Halloween! Last couple of years it’s been cold (even had flurries this year).

No crazy early cold/snow for November. Give me a seasonal Thanksgiving & maybe I nice step down to colder air as we progress through December. 

None of this is scientific whatsoever. I don’t care. I just want to start off differently next year. Tired if this BS! LOL

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47 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

How anyone pays Bastard’s group anything for their analog based predictions I’ll never know.

For next Fall,  here is what I want to see or not see:

NO frickin warm pool of water off Alaska. When it’s there in the Fall, it goes away just in time for winter (at least last 2 yrs it has).

Give me a mild Halloween! Last couple of years it’s been cold (even had flurries this year).

No crazy early cold/snow for November. Give me a seasonal Thanksgiving & maybe I nice step down to colder air as we progress through December. 

None of this is scientific whatsoever. I don’t care. I just want to start off differently next year. Tired if this BS! LOL

YES.   Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed),  until mid Feb.   Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter.    It's all I'm asking....   Where do I submit my order?

 

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27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

YES.   Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed),  until mid Feb.   Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter.    It's all I'm asking....   Where do I submit my order?

 

Are we asking for too much?! LOL

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49 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I like to see people try to forecast winter, but the skill just isn't there.  You may as well flip a coin, but err on the warm side.

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year.  The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year.  The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

70%? Who? I’ll pay more attention to them! DS did well w/ his winter forecast this year.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

Hah, yeah. There is no one out there who has 70% success rate. No way.

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