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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Discussion

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This thread is for the seasonal outlooks and general discussion.

Looks like ENSO may tend to be around neutral on the warm or cool side.  Certainly not seeing any indication of a well defined warm or cold event.  

Going out on a limb but I predict there will be cold and snow.  :P

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Here's the latest DJF outlook from CPC.  

I think most winter lovers in the Midwest would roll the dice with this, especially considering the well-known reluctance to depict blue on seasonal outlooks at this distance.

 

off03_temp.gif.7c3e9ea72d221874439812da79ea8506.gif

off03_prcp.gif.ef2e55fa1dad5634873e12b9019c2cd2.gif

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hoping for a good Winter sub forum wide!

Hoping for a big snowstorm here.  Last winter didn't deliver in that regard.  The most memorable snow for me was actually the mid April storm, which didn't produce a huge amount of snow imby but had some intense blizzard like conditions.  

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hoping for a big snowstorm here.  Last winter didn't deliver in that regard.  The most memorable snow for me was actually the mid April storm, which didn't produce a huge amount of snow imby but had some intense blizzard like conditions.  

Yeah last winter did not deliver any big storms here (biggest 6.1") and was below avg in snowfall despite colder than avg temps for the cold season. Despite this i had never seen a winter here with so many ice storms. Ice (outside of a few minor glazes) had been really missing in action for a while here. It was still a fairly "wintry" winter, just nothing exciting in the snow department here. Which after so many years of se mi snowmagnet, i can share some. But im certainly hoping for a snowy winter this year!

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Of course it’s still early, but I’ve been seeing some hints at a modoki El Niño for DJF, which in theory would be good for many of us.

There’s a recent post in the mid-Atlantic forum winter thread on this. Not sure how to link to the image on mobile. 

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Not gonna lie, I've been hoping for this thread to started as well!  Way too early to get excited about any particular prognostication, but the CDC's outlook gets me excited about my first Great Lakes Christmas Ale during the first flakes!! 

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17 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Not gonna lie, I've been hoping for this thread to started as well!  Way too early to get excited about any particular prognostication, but the CDC's outlook gets me excited about my first Great Lakes Christmas Ale during the first flakes!! 

Perhaps, but here's a couple decent ones that should have you N. OH peeps at least mildly enthused..if you have a pulse. One must :weenie: on as we approach a fresh winter ahead! 

 

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

Heck, even runner-up analog seasons look pretty tasty compared to the last (3) seasons imby. I'm cautiously excited based on current SSTA's holding serve into the DJF time-frame, with a more or less La-Nada look staying the course. The "Blob" in the NPAC needs to remain stout - that'll be key imho. 

 

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1 hour ago, Minnesota_storms said:

A bit out but the models have snow next Thursday night into Friday here in southern Minnesota. A early winter? :D 

Have been going back and forth in my mind about whether we may get an early onset/frontloaded winter or more of a backloaded one.  A little early to tell but we are at least seeing some early cold punches.

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1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

I would guess, NOAA. Your mileage may vary though.

Don't know what that second sentence means but, no need to be a smartass. I know it's from NOAA I guess what I meant to ask was what's the exact web address of this particular product? It's cool, I've never seen it before.

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The northern plains are set to see a potentially historic snowstorm in a few days that is "unheard of for October" in terms of size and intensity. This is after the more isolated but very intense Montana snowstorm last week. Two unheard of snow storms before mid October!!! Perhaps it will be signs of a wild Winter this year. The northern plains and Western States usually get snow before us, but this is quite an early start!

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Didn’t the winter of 2013-2014 get off to an abnormally early start? I think the plains were hit with a massive snowstorm like the first few days of October?? 

Some similarities between now and 2013 as well as far as ENSO, the blob, solar etc.. 

 

EDIT: it was October 3-5 2013. Almost the same areas affected by this blizzard as well. 

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Some of the latest info does suggest a possible weak Nino for winter.  May fall a bit short.  It could end up being a case of Ninoish but not meeting the technical criteria of 5 consecutive trimonthly readings.  

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3 hours ago, Chambana said:

Didn’t the winter of 2013-2014 get off to an abnormally early start? I think the plains were hit with a massive snowstorm like the first few days of October?? 

Some similarities between now and 2013 as well as far as ENSO, the blob, solar etc.. 

 

EDIT: it was October 3-5 2013. Almost the same areas affected by this blizzard as well. 

Yes to all above. As you said, ground-zero for that storm was more or less in the middle between this year's two pre-season beasts. 2013 had the most extensive early snow cover build-up of the past couple decades. 2019 is in 2nd or 3rd place to date, but may be on a roll. Could we catch, or even surpass 2013 over the next month? "Don't touch that dial.."

 

NCEP Map 2013-10-04.gif

NCEP Map 2013-10-05.gif

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some of the latest info does suggest a possible weak Nino for winter.  May fall a bit short.  It could end up being a case of Ninoish but not meeting the technical criteria of 5 consecutive trimonthly readings.  

It's a noteworthy trend that many of these storms are acting much like the biggies in 77-78 which was a weak Nino. Strong storms at peak intensity stalling, looping, drifting, etc. No low solar to blame back then tho, which we have going on right now aiding high-lat blocking. It's uncanny and hopefully continues into winter.

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I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall.

EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png

Let it be known that today is the first time this season that a snowstorm potentially relevant to this sub-forum has been modeled by the GFS. 

(I am by no means implying that this storm is anything more than a 318-hour modeling of no real significance. I'm just saying that it's the first snowstorm shown at any distance by the GFS shown in our region this season, and to me, that's kind of cool. You know you're just as hyped for winter as I am, so lighten up)

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14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png

Let it be known that today is the first time this season that a snowstorm potentially relevant to this sub-forum has been modeled by the GFS. 

(I am by no means implying that this storm is anything more than a 318-hour modeling of no real significance. I'm just saying that it's the first snowstorm shown at any distance by the GFS shown in our region this season, and to me, that's kind of cool. You know you're just as hyped for winter as I am, so lighten up)

Wagons south!

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Maybe it's just me but the pattern has the feel of something that could produce an unseasonably far south October snowfall.  There looks to be some decent cold (by Oct standards) to play with at times.  

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