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Rtd208

October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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November will surprise,  I am betting---on the BN side.       CFSv2 is....... Week 1    N    Week 2   AN     Week 3  BN     Week 4  BN       Remember last November was  +6 after Week 1, and ended as the star of the winter (by anomaly) at -3.3 with a 6.4" snowstorm.      Then KAOS sent in their best agents and neutralized November with a 'mirror image' December.   Lol.

If Nov, Dec are both AN, it would make  the last 11 years worth of Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, Decembers (44 months)  about 32AN   vs. 12BN .

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10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Not this early man

Wow I thought it must be because of the perception that early snow leads to mild winters. Any snow would likely be minor in nature, but personally I’d be fine if the cool down leads to a touch of snow. 

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If we do end up seeing a low with pressure around 970 there are going to be strong winds. It’s been a long time since even advisory level winds area wide. Some time early last spring. There are going to be allot of leaves blowing around from drought stressed trees

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1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Wow I thought it must be because of the perception that early snow leads to mild winters. Any snow would likely be minor in nature, but personally I’d be fine if the cool down leads to a touch of snow. 

Well that’s why Anthony doesn’t want snow this early but he’s most likely getting early snow but this winter it’ll be different. Snow all winter

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5 minutes ago, larrye said:

I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel?

Looks like that's during the worst of it 

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On 10/13/2019 at 11:12 AM, dWave said:

When it comes to snowfall, DC is turning into Atlanta. At the same time we have increasing snowfall. Theres a huge snow dichotomy along I 95 now over a relativetly short distance. I wonder if it's a semi permanent thing or if plummeting snowfall totals will eventually move up the coast here? Being in more favorable position for noreasters maybe saves us? 

I think we have a few decades left.  Maybe by the time it stops snowing around here, we'll be too old to actually see snow (or our eyes will be so bad that we'll see snow everywhere lol.)

 

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17 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I don't think  there is alot of research about early snow and crappy winters.

We talked about why it might happen last year.  I remember Chris said when you have cold/snowy weather prior to winter, the atmosphere needs some time to recover to get back to that pattern and that might result in a milder December, and then you're already getting the winter started off on the wrong foot, and etc.  A milder start means less snow albedo feedback from up north and milder and less snow, which is a more stable pattern than a colder/snowy pattern is.  Thats why winters like 2014-15 are extremely rare.

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On 10/13/2019 at 10:56 AM, donsutherland1 said:

October 29, 1971 when the temperature hit 80.

Thanks Don, I suspect that the last 80 is the threshold for when true fall weather begins, because at all of our local airports we've seen 70 degrees even during the middle of winter (Jan/Feb)?  Likewise the first 80 of the year is the threshold for true spring.

 

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.9[62.5].         Should be about +3.5[61.6] by the 23rd.

55.2* here at 6am.

 

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10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

40 here currently. Progged lows of 32 Thursday/Friday. Could be the end of the growing season for me. 

Depends on how long those temps last.  I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage.  I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Depends on how long those temps last.  I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage.  I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours.

 

I believe it’s 28 or lower for a hard freeze. I was going to bring this up last week in the NYC Freeze thread, the difference between a freeze and a hard freeze but I figured weenies heads would explode. 

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

I believe it’s 28 or lower for a hard freeze. I was going to bring this up last week in the NYC Freeze thread, the difference between a freeze and a hard freeze but I figured weenies heads would explode. 

lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think?

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think?

 

I seem to recall that there was a time frame attached as well back in the day, not sure there is anymore. A quick search found this 

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015e022011curr.pdf#page7

 

F3F32DDE-A43E-47AC-82C8-A48535BCA03E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

NAM has peak wind gusts in the 90-100 mph range over the ocean just east of where the center eventually forms. There is so much convection with this system, that models are still having trouble on where the main low will form. Just look at all the spread between the various models. We should beefing to get more clarity with the 12z runs today.

F16EA22D-D7B5-41EA-AF45-9531D5F5077A.thumb.gif.c55a6c4a8785a7c02b71236db95a836a.gif


 

 

If we could get a system like this in the winter.....

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I've always tried to remember this in 5 degree increments, so....

 

37 F (light frost)

32 F (freeze)

27 F (hard freeze)

Weird thing is, precip seems to follow a similar pattern- over the years I've noticed that mixed precip falls at around 36-37 (or a very wet snow), 32 is for standard snow, but to get the lovely powdery stuff with the high ratios you need temps of around 27-28 or lower.  I wonder if this is because there is an average increase of 5 degrees for every 1,000 feet that precip falls (as long as there isn't an inversion.)

 

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47F this morning

First time it has been that cool in a while

 

Stop trying to predict winter. It never goes well :)

 

I think this coastal low bodes well for us going forward

Second storm in a week...something that was elusive last winter

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro came in just as strong with the wind gusts to the east of the low. Check out those peak  gusts near Block Island.

4A986E89-18B1-4455-A05F-CBE8A2A14076.thumb.png.f5059c51d4a1548c076c6ac841df794b.png

 

 

 

Chris, are those winds at the surface?  Wow!

Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Chris, are those winds at the surface?  Wow!

Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph

 

Keep in mind the Euro is often overdone on winds.   However even if you cut back by 25-30%, still a good event

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Keep in mind the Euro is often overdone on winds.   However even if you cut back by 25-30%, still a good event

Yep, I was a little dubious of those hurricane force gusts around Riverhead too lol.  Cut that back by 1/3 and you still get 40 mph for around here and 60 mph for the Twin Forks- more reasonable.

Still hurricane force gusts for a place like Block Island.

 

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NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. 

Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. 

Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct. 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. 

Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. 

Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct. 

This would be a perfect track for a snowstorm in the winter.  This is a good practice storm :P

 

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Well, none of the bouys which would be affected by the system, are showing over 15' seas.    I think they are based on the GFS.  Real reason is the winds will be working on the water's surface for a short time only--- not like an approaching TC.

Also note the GFS is showing the month ending in the 30's to 40's exclusively (27th-31st.)-----if you are worried about freezes and frosts around here.

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10 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well, none of the bouys which would be affected by the system, are showing over 15' seas.    I think they are based on the GFS.  Real reason is the winds will be working on the water's surface for a short time only--- not like an approaching TC.

Also note the GFS is showing the month ending in the 30's to 40's exclusively (27th-31st.)-----if you are worried about freezes and frosts around here.

yes, the system is a quick developer and also a fast mover-in and out in about 12 hrs.

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