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wxeyeNH

Major Hurricane Lorenzo

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53 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:
These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue.

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

 

 

 

Are my posts texts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol...

 

 

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You have to manually set text back to black font right now. The board is defaulting to white font on a white background haha.

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
8 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:
These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue.
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo
 
 
 

Are my posts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol...

 

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7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:
You have to manually set text back to black font right now. The board is defaulting to white font on a white background haha.
 

Haha ok... Thanks!

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Lorenzo has reintensified to a Cat 4...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has
been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after
Lorenzo's eyewall replacement.  The plane measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112
kt.  In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt.
These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which
makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again.  The plane also reported
a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb.

Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the
subtropical ridge.  The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger
than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge
Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours.  After that
period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn
Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion
accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model
and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the
previous official forecast, at least through day 4.  Some southward
adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest
global model guidance.

Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day
or so.  However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and
decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected
to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3
days.  After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with
an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start
extratropical transition.  The global models indicate that the
transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the
moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4.
Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical
transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days.  These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 23.3N  45.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 24.6N  44.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 26.3N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 29.7N  42.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 34.8N  38.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 42.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 49.0N  13.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this
evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have
become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the
Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data,
a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the
initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind
speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or
intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days.  These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0000Z 23.8N  45.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 24.6N  44.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 26.3N  44.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 29.7N  42.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 34.8N  38.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 42.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 49.0N  13.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts.  Lorenzo is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday.
Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through
Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it
approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days.  Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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It's official....Category 5 Lorenzo. Astonishing.

000
WTNT63 KNHC 290207
TCUAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019


...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h).  This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

 

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It's official....Category 5 Lorenzo. Astonishing.
000WTNT63 KNHC 290207TCUAT3Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL1320191010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued torapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricanewith maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h).  Thisincrease in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at11 pm AST (0300 UTC).SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.1N 45.0WABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORESMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES$$Forecaster Brown/Latto

 

New record holder

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Wow Lorenzo is really impressive for it's location and the time of year, but I can't help to be a little skeptical of it being a Cat 5 right now. That eye is just a little to ragged for me despite the warm eye temp. Compared to hurricane Michael that wasn't upgraded until post season analysis...I just don't know if it fits the bill. Perhaps NHC not afraid to be a little aggressive considering it's in the middle of the Atlantic right now. Also of note Michael had higher ADT estimates but we had much more recon data throughout the storm. 

Lorenzo

goes16_ir_13L.thumb.gif.76dddafc9b4b03babadf8fd2af1cbd98.gif

 

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What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili.

Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. 

I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? 

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11 pm update (Lorenzo upgraded to CAT 5 but with the 5 am, was downgraded again) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
northeast by Monday.  A faster northeast motion is expected by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Sunday.  A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday
night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent
hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days.  Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN
Quote
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening.  An eyewall
replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS
microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in
diameter now completely encircles the eye.  The cold cloud tops
surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures
measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius.  In addition, the
eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now
above 15 degrees Celsius.  Throughout the evening, the objective and
subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special
classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity.  This
makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt.  Lorenzo will be
steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through
tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday.
After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end
of the forecast period.  The official track forecast is essentially
an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the
consensus aids.

Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the
current favorable environment.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles.  By
Sunday night, Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some
southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also
moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content.  These factors
should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours.  After that
time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend.  By 72
hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching
trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition
to an extratropical low.  This transition is forecast to complete by
120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that.  The
official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to
the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the
previous official forecast by 72 hours.

With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest
hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days.  These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 24.2N  44.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 25.5N  44.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 27.1N  44.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 28.8N  43.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 30.8N  42.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 36.7N  35.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 45.0N  23.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 52.2N  10.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

5 am update (system has weakened) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 44.6 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the forecast track,
Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Lorenzo is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane as it
approaches the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
Quote
861 
WTNT43 KNHC 290833
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it
was several hours ago.  Although the eye is still very distinct,
the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few
dry slots evident beyond the inner core.  The initial wind speed is
lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite
estimates this is probably generous.  The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they
collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's
intensity and structure.  Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are
usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long.  Since
Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment
of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days,
steady weakening is forecast.  Lorenzo is now expected to become
extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder
than 20 C.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA.

Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the
Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level trough currently
over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the
central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the
northeast during the next few days.  This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and
Wednesday.  After that time, there are significant differences in
the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical
low over the north Atlantic.  The ECMWF and UKMET models show little
interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward
in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the
United Kingdom.  On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models
show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and
remaining over the Atlantic.  The spread in the models is incredibly
large, about 1300 n mi by day 5.  Given the high uncertainty at this
time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and
this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions.  However, confidence
in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed
later today.

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided
input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 25.1N  44.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 26.4N  44.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 29.9N  42.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 32.2N  40.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 39.4N  32.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 47.8N  20.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0600Z 53.5N  10.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

083449_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Was hoping this thing would take a sharper right turn and be a possible threat to Africa, just because I can’t recall such anomalous track/intensity before. As is, watch out Ireland.

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Absolutely epic in every regard. Another storm that shows how far we have to go with intensity forecasts.

Due to the fact that Lorenzo was moving north at the time of peak intensity it will send anomalously long period swell to the east coast. These long period swells (greater then 16 seconds) contain tremendous energy and are capable of producing beach wash overs. (And fun waves for those in the know)

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8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili.

Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. 

I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? 

A lot of those other storms you mentioned would have probably been Cat 5’s too had they been able to survey them with today’s instruments and technology.   I mean Andrew was always considered to be a Cat 4...then they upgraded it to a 5 when they analyzed the whole damage/catastrophe that was south Florida.  

So that tells me that many of those other Cat 4’s were probably stronger than they were thought to be too.  

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9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili.

Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. 

I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? 

It is possible that the recent large number of cat 5s has something to do with warming SSTs.  I would argue that this particular storm might be the most unusual out of the bunch given the intensity it achieved at such a northeasterly position relative to past storms.  This may reflect SSTs being warmer in this part of the ocean than in the past, facilitating RI.

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