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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Got to see a few flurries at the end of the App game. Though it sucked to sit there and watch them lose in that wind.

Hard game.. Watched it from the couch this go around. They keep showing the snow coming back from commercials. 

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So what’s the thoughts on this?? The EURO and UKMET showing cold there and the EURO showing the low moving up the coast in a great position to support the GFS...???

F7369FA0-8F23-4982-BC19-0FFB6F9ECF24.gif

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5 hours ago, TheWxGuy said:

So what’s the thoughts on this?? The EURO and UKMET showing cold there and the EURO showing the low moving up the coast in a great position to support the GFS...???

 

The 06 GFS continues to show some love this morning...

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Some of my friends I’m talking to see storms rather than wintry precip, which that’s definitely plausible and I realize this is one model showing this (which is typical of the GFS) but I believe the model is confused on the timing of the High and the Low therefore it’s spitting out some wintry precip... I’m just curious to see how the CAD sets up if it does! 

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7 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I'm not as enthusiastic about any particular threat showing up on models yet as most, but man it feels good to see the potential there this early on.

Yeah I agree. Its early and the models have only been trying to grasp the pattern as a whole. Its early but im glad we are getting cold air in here already.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Man I like the look of the 5H pattern on the euro.  That is one heck of a trough even for the middle of winter.

Care to share an image? 

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The signal is there next week for two rounds of snowfall.  Per the EPS, an elongated trough will rake over the mountain of WNC Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some form of Clipper action.  Then the stream could potential phase with the southern jet, later in the week.  All this means is that there is way to much uncertainty regarding the pattern next week.  Models will have a better handle by this weekend, but I believe fun times are in store for at least some over the next 10-15 days.

 

Boone-EPSNov5th.png

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47 minutes ago, Hvward said:

The signal is there next week for two rounds of snowfall.  Per the EPS, an elongated trough will rake over the mountain of WNC Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some form of Clipper action.  Then the stream could potential phase with the southern jet, later in the week.  All this means is that there is way to much uncertainty regarding the pattern next week.  Models will have a better handle by this weekend, but I believe fun times are in store for at least some over the next 10-15 days.

 

Boone-EPSNov5th.png

You're talking my language, Hunter!  I think Wolf Ridge will be making snow next week with this air mass coming in. 

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2 hours ago, Hvward said:

The signal is there next week for two rounds of snowfall.  Per the EPS, an elongated trough will rake over the mountain of WNC Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some form of Clipper action.  Then the stream could potential phase with the southern jet, later in the week.  All this means is that there is way to much uncertainty regarding the pattern next week.  Models will have a better handle by this weekend, but I believe fun times are in store for at least some over the next 10-15 days.

 

Boone-EPSNov5th.png

Good stuff Hunter. Im liking these early season cold air masses. 

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On 11/1/2019 at 4:29 PM, Tyler Penland said:

Had a little dusting in the protected areas around Tynecastle/Banner Elk this morning. Sugar Mt had the guns cranked up full blast.

Yep, we were working at the new clubhouse and they were blowing....

 

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13 hours ago, Buckethead said:

So the euro took a step towards the GFS on next weekend's potential snow this afternoon.  Widespread accumulation across the high country and minor accumulations for many in WNC. 

What are the thoughts on WNC in general this winter? Just moved to Asheville from Upstate NY. I'm expecting a little less than I'm used to, haha. 

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3 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

What are the thoughts on WNC in general this winter? Just moved to Asheville from Upstate NY. I'm expecting a little less than I'm used to, 

Welcome!  This is the seasonal forecast that one of our board's meteorologist, HVWard, put out about a week ago.  He's a good one to follow on fb too.   https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2019/10/16/2019-2020-ashevillewx-winter-weather-forecast

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

Welcome!  This is the seasonal forecast that one of our board's meteorologist, HVWard, put out about a week ago.  He's a good one to follow on fb too.   https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2019/10/16/2019-2020-ashevillewx-winter-weather-forecast

Modoki El Nino isn't going to come to fruition, but I still believe the forcing will come from a very favorable spot this winter.  With the neutral phase expected now and Modoki only just above neutral, the data is still somewhat applicable.

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In regards to the upcoming front, I think the best chance for flakes will be northwest flow moisture Tuesday into Wednesday.  Anafronts never work out for the valleys of WNC, but the backside moisture looks promising and a 1040mb high over the great lakes will certainly send the winds.  The valleys in WNC would certainly see flakes from the backside if that comes to fruition.  Then, late next week we could be talking about a possible Gulf Low, developing on the tail end of the wave.  Will the cold air be in place? Probably not, but a retreating high to our north could make for an icy situation.  Anyways, the next 10 days should be interesting.  

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