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New England Convective Discussion


weatherwiz
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Mesoscale Discussion 1827
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

   Areas affected...Hudson Valley into southern New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...

   Valid 211955Z - 212130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and
   intensify across the region through 5-7 PM EDT, posing a risk for
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps at least some continuing risk for a
   tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...The initial convective band has largely dissipated, but
   widely scattered, generally discrete vigorous thunderstorms have
   developed and persisted.  This includes one storm which still could
   take on an increasing supercell structure as it tracks
   near/northwest of Providence RI during the next hour or so.  

   Convection north of Albany appears to be gradually growing upscale,
   with potential to produce a swath of damaging winds becoming more
   apparent.  Further intensification and organization appears
   possible, as it tracks eastward along an effective warm frontal zone
   near/north of the Massachusetts/Vermont and New Hampshire border
   area through 21-23Z.

   Additional new thunderstorm development is ongoing within surface
   troughing, near/east of the Catskills and Poconos.  In the presence
   of moderate instability and shear, this activity is expected to
   intensify further and gradually pose increasing potential for strong
   surface gusts across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New
   England and Long Island.

   ..Kerr.. 08/21/2019
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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hoping stuff in E NY will intensify in CT. Debating on going to BDL but traffic now would be a shit show and there is an accident before 91 merger 

I suspect there's too much cloud debris in southern CT for much intensification, at least near the coast, but you never know. The shear is definitely in place and intensifying, so we'll see. I no longer have much hope for anything really good in HVN area...

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2 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

I suspect there's too much cloud debris in southern CT for much intensification, at least near the coast, but you never know. The shear is definitely in place and intensifying, so we'll see. I no longer have much hope for anything really good in HVN area...

It still seems rather unstable per mesoanalysis with no CIN showing up. Back in WeHa now but quite a bit of clouds. But shear is there with s/w arriving so we’ll see what happens.  

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

It would have been one thing if they ended the watch early. Could see the concern. But looking at vis sat, I see no reason to think the watch should be continued at all at this point. All severe will be very isolated, if at all.

Nice and cool here now. That was a fun visual storm

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some reports of big branches down in Methuen, but I saw nothing of the sort.

I saw a few small branches down on the west side of town around forest/pelham st along with some quick flash flooding that quickly subsided. Nothing big that I saw though. It was a fun storm, tons of lightning and some brief hail as well. 

IMG_7460.PNG

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