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New England Convective Discussion

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I'm sure this is somewhere within the August 2019 discussion thread but I don't feel like reading through all of the temp and dewpoint crap and about how people who live in forests try to use their weather to quantify a regime and how people on tarmacs try to quantify their weather as a regime so here it goes...

The next few days offers up several opportunities for convection and like we saw this weekend the meso-models (or CAMS) are going to have a very difficult time grasping the evolution of convection.

Today:

Moderate (to even borderline extreme) instability in place thanks to very high dewpoints, rather warm sfc temps, and modest mid-level lapse rates. Shear isn't overly strong (but a modest MLJ of 40-50 knots) punching into the region will help create bulk shear values supportive for organized convection. The verdict: Scattered severe t'storms today which will produce localized areas of wind damage. Transient supercells may also produce some large hail with low risk for a tornado up in ME. 

Tuesday:

Weak shortwave approaching, high humidity, and low CIN will result in scattered t'storms developing during the afternoon with isolated svr potential

Wednesday:

Wednesday is a bit more intriguing with strong front/shortwave energy approaching, and decent wind shear/instability. Could see scattered severe weather with all severe hazards possible. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

High humidity tomorrow?

:axe:

oops...I had the wrong hour up on the screen. 

What I meant to say for Tuesday was a chance for t'storms overnight as humidity begins to increase again and the llv jet strengthens. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Was just looking at Wednesday. Lots of CAPE, decent hodos, SRH, LCLs, surface low in a decent position. Lapse rates are kinda meh, but what's new there? 

If everything can align Wednesday could be a decent severe weather day. the lapse rates suck but dews well into the 70's could compensate a bit 

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What about today?  SPC has a slight hashing over the region -  ... I see a lot of heat and rich theta-e but beyond those implications to SBCAPE I don't know, just mentioning - 

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37 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Looks like a slam dunk severe watch right to most of the entire region... Just had a chance to look over everything.

Good call ...

 

mcd1799_thumb.gif

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6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I think you're going to get a good one. 

Looks to be great timing for C SNE to E SNE

Not sure. If that’s the line, it’s way ahead of schedule and way east of Mesos. Unless that’s just a few renegade cells 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure. If that’s the line, it’s way ahead of schedule and way east of Mesos. Unless that’s just a few renegade cells 

NAM looked like outflow pushes ahead and bursts something near you. But definitely ahead of schedule.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   220 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeastern Connecticut
     Much of Massachusetts
     Extreme southern Maine
     Southeastern New Hampshire
     Rhode Island
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread eastward
   through the afternoon in advance of a surface cold front.  The storm
   environment ahead of the front will favor multicell clusters capable
   of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail through the
   afternoon.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
   statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
   of Portland ME to 25 miles southeast of Windsor Locks CT. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27025.

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