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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Was it last year we missed a good chance in early December when NE Atlanta got hammered?

I think that might have been 2 years ago that they had that big anafrontal or over running event there and NC. 

Isotherm's winter forecast is out and to sum it up, we better enjoy next week, lol:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ 

 

 

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0z GFS is bouncing a little more back to earlier runs vs the 18z run that was a bunch of nothing. Great Miller A track with a classically underdone precip shield in our area. Some rock solid snow for central Alabama though. 

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26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

0z GFS is bouncing a little more back to earlier runs vs the 18z run that was a bunch of nothing. Great Miller A track with a classically underdone precip shield in our area. Some rock solid snow for central Alabama though. 

Yeah SW winds bringing up the dreaded nose,looks more a mix,in our parts

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah SW winds bringing up the dreaded nose,looks more a mix,in our parts

Yeah, nose makes it to around Chatt. Decent ice event for AL with that setup. Sounding for around Anniston:

Screenshot_20191106-233706_Chrome.jpg

20191106_233541.jpg

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Probably have to wait and see just as well if those soundings are corrupt just as well,i was looking at also  the 850mb map, looks much colder than those skew-t's,always hate seeing cold  chasing moisture in our parts

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All 3 major models are spitting out snow for the area, most of the valley would see at least 1/4th to 1/2 inch on car tops etc with some areas getting 1-3 inches from most of the 0z suite. I have a hard time believing it but we've seen more unusual/out of area/out of season type snows in the south than actual winter type snows lately it seems. So maybe it's our time to get lucky for a change instead of New Orleans, Houston or other places normally hostile to snow.

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

All 3 major models are spitting out snow for the area, most of the valley would see at least 1/4th to 1/2 inch on car tops etc with some areas getting 1-3 inches from most of the 0z suite. I have a hard time believing it but we've seen more unusual/out of area/out of season type snows in the south than actual winter type snows lately it seems. So maybe it's our time to get lucky for a change instead of New Orleans, Houston or other places normally hostile to snow.

Not the only one having a hard time believing it. Ensembles, especially the GEFS, leaned a lot more toward cold chasing fropa instead of the Miller A on their OPs.

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The 00z ECMWF output 1-3 inches across upper East Tennessee to 4-5 inches across the higher elevations of southwest VA is certainly eye-opening. More of a light dusting south of 40. 1-2 for KTYS and perhaps 2-3 for KTRI? It's still way early. My pessimism aside, these outputs may even go up today, tomorrow, perhaps even into the weekend, but I'm not buying into even shallow totals until there is a significant increase. Even then it will probably still be at most 1-2 inches for KTRI and 2-4 for higher elevations to the west and northwest. But any snow is cool for mid-November. So there's some optimism. :)

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I assume the TWC forecast must auto generate off one of the models. It throws out 1-3 inches Monday night with a low in the upper 20s and 1-3 Tuesday with a high of 29 for my area. 

I think it uses the Euro


.
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Euro and GFS back way off. Canadian still healthy for eastern areas. Don't trust any of them at this range as sad as that is, but feel like backside flurries with some flow snow showers is probably going to be correct. 

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Agree with watching the Thursday system.  Also, the Euro Weeklies and the EPS look to hold the current pattern in place.  TIFWIW, we know the Weeklies have been flipping around a lot.  Last winter we all thought would be cold, especially the back half.  After early December...went straight warm.  So, I kind of think the atmosphere owes us one.  LOL.  The weather outside has been nasty this evening.  Kind of reminds of the first Harry Potter movie when he is on the island, and Hagrid finds him on that dark and rainy night.    Also, been putting out fires for the past couple of days.  Great to see all of the discussion from everyone.  You know when we put the Tennessee Valley forum together several years ago...that is kind of how we thought it might look.  I know I post quite a bit...but my favorite days looking at the forum are when I see all of this great material to read - and I haven't posted at all.  Means we are alive and well.  I hope my legacy with this forum is not that I posted a bunch.  I hope it is that WE built a great place to discuss weather that will carry on in some shape or form for many years.  And ultimately, I hope we produce a few meteorologists because of the great discussion by all of us.  The SE forum has produced a few.  

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Fri 00z ECMWF backed off totals several inches from last night's / Thur 00z op. Maybe .5 to 1.5 inches for most areas up Holston Valley and KTRI. KTYS might get a light dusting. Only significant totals are for some of the higher elevations of SWVA across the highest ridges of Clinch and Walker mountains but that's maxing out around 3 inches so nothing too exciting there. Perhaps there will be another swing in outputs but this just look like the bulk of moisture is going to stay south of the region in time for the cold to play ball. What overriding moisture is remaining will be nosed off until the cold can dam against the Apps. Would need a significant shift in the low and better timing with the cold. Hard to bank on that. If the cold pattern / reinforcement can stay in place perhaps some action around Thanksgiving?

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Some BIG difference between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS in the long range.   GEFS quickly erodes the cold pattern by next Saturday.  It has really moved up its flip to a more zonal/weak eastern ridge pattern.  The EPS is stone cold through the end of its run with not even a hint of what the GEFS is cooking.  Something to watch.  I don't really trust either model right now.  The GEFS is well...the GEFS.  However, the EPS has been awful at seeing cold in the LR(which it sort of has now with the 500 pattern), but it is also has had issues with seeing pattern changes only to flip at the last moment.  Something to watch in the LR.  The GEFS has been showing this off/on for a couple of days.  Pretty impressive differences showing up at d7.  The EPS rolls a ridge through and the GEFS sticks the trough in the Southwest.  Been a weird weak, so each model taking on the other's bias would fit right in.  The EPS rebuilds the eastern trough and the GEFS builds in a wonky by not impossible pattern.  Might be the GEFS is just ahead of things which it does sometimes.

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Thursdays system next week is still interesting.  6z GFS and 12z Euro have it.  Something to watch.  The energy that was held back Tuesday is getting picked up as a GOM slp.

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Wondering this AM if next week's early system ends up like the one last January (patent pending Dayton micro lee side low storm). 

At hour 102, there is some higher precipitable waters creeping up the valley:

giphy.gif

and relative humidity at 700mb looks good through hr 108:

giphy.gif

and at 850mb it looks good with some upslope type flow through hr 120:

giphy.gif

for lift, there is still the tail of a jet streak to our north and west through hr 108:

giphy.gif

and some cyclonic vorticity through hour 114:

giphy.gif

All the ingredients are there for an inch or so (not that all of it might stick) and this is kind of what happened with that January storm last year. A little relative humidity gets stuck after nosing its way from the south up into the mid eastern valley between the plateau and Smokies and you get a few hours of lift from upper level features and then from some typical upslope flow. 

Northern Blount and Sevier counties did ok:

giphy.gif

 

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Picking up on Holston's post earlier, the 12z GFS is a little wetter for the valley and East TN in general. I still think a dusting to half an inch on the grass isn't out of the question for a good portion of the area. Maybe we can score some fatties for 15-30mins at least. Anything this early in November is a bonus anyways. Almost in NAM range!

 

image.thumb.png.b26ee93f3795f5e1a64bf71e3d3e8c10.png

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Typically I fade cold chasing rain and post-frontal junk. Chattanooga will whiff; that's easy! However the strength of cold air and lingering moisture may actually squeeze out the dusting Middle and Western Tenn. 2m temps are forecast around freezing, vs just-in-time cold there. Orographic areas (TRI) may see slight snow too. Knox to MRX is a crap shoot. 

Looking ahead I'm starting to buy the cold balance of November. How does it look for the rest of winter? Last year failed, but we have a key difference this year. GLAAM is going negative this year. It hung up positive last year, then the cold pattern broke down after December. This is is different, but I'm not promising all cold. I'm still a little bearish. However it should be colder than last year.

QBO remains positive, but a downward trend would interest me. I'm almost 100% trend (delta) over initial reading. Downward trend would be bullish. NWP flirts with strato warming but I think it's still too early to bank on that. My gut says cold Great Lakes with occasional bleed South. SER may poke back up occasionally.

At any rate I survived the time change. I'm getting used to the cold. I'm asking Southeast forum when the NC ski areas open. Attitude adjustment complete. Bring on winter!

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Step in step with you on your Lr thoughts Jeff ! Very good and sound reasoning in layman's terms ! The only slught difference in my thoughts is the snowfall for mon-tue.  I suspect areas along ky-va border should pick up a general 1-3" . Of course, this area is not your area of expertise.  

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Yeah, that is an interesting run for sure.  Memphis gets ~3".  Storm takes so long to get its act together that much of it falls as rain in E TN...but not all of it is rain.  Downsloping and scouring of temps occurs due to it crawling along the Gulf Coast.  Perfect track for E TN if we can get any cold of cold to hold OR if it gets stronger.  Much more wrapped up this run than last.  

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8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro @150...:sled:

That low pressure is something to watch next Thursday/Friday. I'm guessing it's going to be a cold rain based on climatology and it being mid-November, but I hope I'm wrong. :)

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