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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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GFS looks like it has a heavy burst of snow for the eastern valley and totals picked up to 2-3 inches across most of TN on the CMC tonight.

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The NAM really let it ride for the mid-state with 2-4 inches, a good portion of the forum area sees 1-2 inches outside the midstate. I'd guess maybe 1/2 to 1/3rd of it will stick on non-raised surfaces if it come to pass. 

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Starting to creep into the RGEM range. The snow line is basically north of 40 and to the edge western edge of the plateau by 48 hours. Sleeting/freezing rain event in n Miss/ sw Tn per the RGEM at 48. If the timing stays consistent and there is the advertised post-frontal precip the models are playing out, I figure the night time hours will aid Mid and Western areas with sticking possibilities.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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Models continue to be in decent agreement overall with the precip
event Monday through Tuesday. A strong cold front will push
through Monday night as a deep mid/upper level trough digs into
the region. Showers will begin moving into western portions of the
area late Monday, then overspread the area Monday night. As the
cold air pushes in, the rain will transition to snow first on the
plateau and higher elevations from west to east, with snow likely
to mix in even in valley locations late Monday night.

The timing of this rain to snow transition is still uncertain, but
some light snow accumulations look likely especially in the higher
terrain areas.  In the valley, surface temperatures may not dip
below freezing in most locations and with the warm ground,
significant snow accumulation looks less likely. Will continue to
mention the light snow accumulations in the HWO primarily higher
elevation areas. Some snow showers and flurries will linger into
Tuesday morning, but models show rapid drying aloft leaving just
some shallow low level moisture lingering, so expect precipitation
to taper off rather quickly.

Morning disco from MRX.  Hopefully the change over is fast, this is a major cold air mass and they mention possible record lows Wednesday morning. My current point forecast is for a low of 28 with a high of 30 on Tuesday with "less than an inch" wording. Which I suspect will probably be correct.

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6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Starting to creep into the RGEM range. The snow line is basically north of 40 and to the edge western edge of the plateau by 48 hours. Sleeting/freezing rain event in n Miss/ sw Tn per the RGEM at 48. If the timing stays consistent and there is the advertised post-frontal precip the models are playing out, I figure the night time hours will aid Mid and Western areas with sticking possibilities.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

You will really like the 12z lol

20191110_105002.jpg

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing.  So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z.

Yup, I got The NAM hammer pretty good on that run too.  It’s fun to see models spitting out possibilities like this so early in the season.  WRF-ARW is in board as well 

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39 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Would it be a bad idea to create a forecast/nowcast/obs topic? A whiff is still very much on the table but...

Fortuna iuvet audentes. 

SREF jumped up for the Great Valley. Likely a good NAMing incoming! 

Edit: Not quite as good a NAMing as I though :( 

 

 

 

 

 

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November to date. 

My house -9

Crossville -8.9

London, KY -9.6

Memphis -9.3

Nashville -7.6

Jackson, Tn -9.8

Huntsville, Al  -8.4

Oak Ridge -6.7

Tazewell -6.1

Chattanooga -6

Tri - 7.1

Knox -7.8

Abingdon, Va -6

Cookeville -8.8

Murfreesboro -10.1 (suspect a data issue as it shows Murfreesboro with a high of only 34 on the 4th, other stations have a high in the upper 50s that day in the mid state.)

Generally the forum area is -6 to -9 for the month to date so far.  It should go down even more with the incoming cold blast. We may finish the first half of the month at -10 or lower. 

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

November to date. 

My house -9

Crossville -8.9

London, KY -9.6

Memphis -9.3

Nashville -7.6

Jackson, Tn -9.8

Huntsville, Al  -8.4

Oak Ridge -6.7

Tazewell -6.1

Chattanooga -6

Tri - 7.1

Knox -7.8

Abingdon, Va -6

Cookeville -8.8

Murfreesboro -10.1 (suspect a data issue as it shows Murfreesboro with a high of only 34 on the 4th, other stations have a high in the upper 50s that day in the mid state.)

Generally the forum area is -6 to -9 for the month to date so far.  It should go down even more with the incoming cold blast. We may finish the first half of the month at -10 or lower. 

Thanks for compiling those.  Just an impressively cold start to November.  Unless something crazy happens, even with moderation later in the month (not a given) looks like November will likely finish BN or even well BN.  

@Blue Ridge, with snow predicted on Tuesday...1954 rides again!!!!  Just amazing how close this fall has been to '54.  I joke about it, but it is becoming a bit uncanny.

 

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Just looking at the EPS,no real upper level ridge other than S/Florida.Have to wait and see but i think we could see a strong system into the 3rd week of Nov with the wild swings with the SOI recently,guess we'll see

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51
9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38
8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23
7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01
6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93
5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64
4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07
3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62
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TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F.  Right now the forecast low is around 16F.  So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning.  

Breaking record highs in the 90’s almost exactly a month prior to breaking lows now.


.
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43 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Breaking record highs in the 90’s almost exactly a month prior to breaking lows now.


.

Really insane isn't it,Tn Valley at its best so far,our weather can be so volatile

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0z NAM with its beefiest run yet! Widespread 2-4 across the state. High totals out west but may be mixed with a good amount of sleet. Backside snow is stronger this run 10-12z in the valley.

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0z NAM with its beefiest run yet! Widespread 2-4 across the state. High totals out west but may be mixed with a good amount of sleet. Backside snow is stronger this run 10-12z in the valley.
Namtastic!!!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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