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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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Looking at the temps for next Friday...temps on modeling are struggling to reach 40.  Game temps for HS football games could possibly be in the 30s...low 30s along the the TN/KY borders.  Real feel temps will likely be colder.  The Euro like the GFS has bitterly cold temps in the 7-10 day range...The Euro actually has some -50 degree departures at 240.  Fortunately, that is way out there and will change.  The 12z GFS provides a means to deliver that well in the SE.  The Euro seems like it wants to park those temps along the northern tier.  Still, impressive cold now showing up pretty consistently for the 6-10 time frame.  Looks like two shots.  Going to need to keep an eye on that shot coming in after next weekend.  It may whiff...or it may be very cold.  That 10d airmass would likely break records wherever it sets up shop.  Very winter like 12z suite.  Still surreal to be talking about that...my yard is still fried from the heat.  My garden is fried from the cold last night.  LOL.

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looking at the temps for next Friday...temps on modeling are struggling to reach 40.  Game temps for HS football games could possibly be in the 30s...low 30s along the the TN/KY borders.  Real feel temps will likely be colder.  The Euro like the GFS has bitterly cold temps in the 7-10 day range...The Euro actually has some -50 degree departures at 240.  Fortunately, that is way out there an will change.  The 12z GFS provides a means to deliver that well in the SE.  The Euro seems like it wants to park those temps along the northern tier.  Still, impressive cold now showing up pretty consistently for the 6-10 time frame.  Looks like two shots.  Going to need to keep an eye on that shot coming in after next weekend.  It may whiff...or it may be very cold.  That 10d airmass would likely break records wherever it sets up shop.  Very winter like 12z suite.  Still surreal to be talking about that...my yard is still fried from the heat.  My garden is fried from the cold last night.  LOL.

Looks like some ups and downs.Possibly like you mentioned a decent cold front towards the end of the work week,East Asia looks active upcoming which would be more of the MJO moving across the Maritime.Temps could/probably moderate upwards towards the mid month  as the MJO is moving across some unfavorable phases for this time of year.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z NOV02
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 02-NOV                  31.8    28.9    24002                      0    
SAT 18Z 02-NOV  50.0    31.7    50.1    26.7    26006                      0    
SUN 00Z 03-NOV  51.0    41.6    41.5    25.9    28006   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 06Z 03-NOV  41.5    35.0    35.4    30.4    28003   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 03-NOV  35.7    30.9    30.9    28.3    32002   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 03-NOV  48.5    30.9    48.6    26.3    28002   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 04-NOV  49.9    41.7    41.9    32.0    16002   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 04-NOV  41.9    34.4    34.5    31.1    11003   0.00    0.00       2    
MON 12Z 04-NOV  37.0    33.2    34.7    29.4    15003   0.00    0.00      34    
MON 18Z 04-NOV  57.3    34.7    57.5    32.8    24003   0.00    0.00      79    
TUE 00Z 05-NOV  58.5    46.6    45.8    36.0    16002   0.00    0.00      10    
TUE 06Z 05-NOV  46.2    39.1    40.4    33.3    20002   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 05-NOV  41.0    35.9    36.6    32.4    19002   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 05-NOV  57.4    36.5    57.5    39.2    27005   0.00    0.00      17    
WED 00Z 06-NOV  58.4    48.5    48.4    40.9    28004   0.00    0.00       5    
WED 06Z 06-NOV  48.4    39.8    40.3    38.1    08002   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 12Z 06-NOV  41.0    34.8    34.9    34.2    08002   0.00    0.00      75    
WED 18Z 06-NOV  62.4    34.9    62.5    36.2    25004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 00Z 07-NOV  63.2    52.3    52.2    43.1    20003   0.00    0.00      44    
THU 06Z 07-NOV  52.5    45.5    45.5    42.2    14002   0.00    0.00      27    
THU 12Z 07-NOV  46.5    43.5    45.0    41.8    14003   0.00    0.00      99    
THU 18Z 07-NOV  57.6    44.9    57.4    46.5    18002   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 08-NOV  61.0    51.2    51.1    50.9    00002   0.10    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 08-NOV  52.0    39.5    39.2    38.6    34008   0.77    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 08-NOV  39.2    30.6    30.6    22.0    34008   0.02    0.00      99    
FRI 18Z 08-NOV  36.6    30.1    36.8    13.3    34009   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 09-NOV  37.5    29.8    29.7    15.1    32006   0.00    0.00      19    
SAT 06Z 09-NOV  29.7    24.4    24.3    14.8    03003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 09-NOV  24.5    22.0    22.4    14.3    09003   0.00    0.00       3    
SAT 18Z 09-NOV  44.9    22.4    45.2    15.8    26003   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 00Z 10-NOV  47.5    37.5    37.4    24.0    21005   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 10-NOV  37.6    33.0    34.6    26.8    21002   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 12Z 10-NOV  35.1    31.7    32.6    25.3    18003   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 18Z 10-NOV  54.6    32.4    54.9    25.3    24007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 11-NOV  56.5    44.9    44.7    33.7    22004   0.00    0.00       8    
MON 06Z 11-NOV  44.9    37.0    37.2    30.0    18002   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 11-NOV  40.4    34.4    34.9    27.9    18002   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 11-NOV  57.6    34.8    57.8    37.3    23006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 12-NOV  59.0    48.5    48.5    41.6    24005   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 06Z 12-NOV  48.6    45.4    46.3    43.2    23004   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 12-NOV  46.5    44.0    44.0    43.3    23003   0.00    0.00      78 

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Definitely agree with the mid-month potential for a warm-up in our forum area.  Mentioned that earlier in the week(this past week) before the ensembles went stone cold.  LOL.  The EPS does show some signs of a ridge late in the run in a fairly significant break from continuity.  It has been wrong about those so far, and its d10-15 runs have not verified well in terms of missing cold.  But with what is shown on the operationals...nowhere to go but up as the Euro deterministic is almost BN for the length of its run at TRI.  The 12z Euro has extreme BN temps over portions of the Plains and southern Canada(bitterly cold) late in its run. Average high at TRI is 63ish for early November.  No idea if that run verifies...but that is a chilly run.

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8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Still was able to generate first weenie map of the winter lol..

20191102_185511.jpg

LOL.  Yeah, go check out those low temps that accompany that.  There is another cold shot after next weekend on the GFS that delivers those accums...question is does the cold get into the SE after next weekend?  EPS and Euro are kind of dodgy regarding that time frame with the EPS breaking in continuity from its 0z run and a ridge over the East for d10-15(this has been going on for a couple of weeks).  GFS just goes all-in.  Will be interesting to watch if that cold does come SE.  

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Yeah, go check out those low temps that accompany that.  There is another cold shot after next weekend on the GFS that delivers those accums...question is does the cold get into the SE after next weekend?  EPS and Euro are kind of dodgy regarding that time frame with the EPS breaking in continuity from its 0z run and a ridge over the East for d10-15(this has been going on for a couple of weeks).  GFS just goes all-in.  Will be interesting to watch if that cold does come SE.  

Definitely would like to see the GEFS start to have some agreement with the OP, GEFS in same type camp as Euro...more of a glancing shot for the SE. Those temps tho on that run lol...fun to see what a little snow can do. After the last few years, starting to think whatever used to be normal output for the analogs, ENSO, and everything else we use...now just needs flipped. Atmosphere almost acts in reverse compared to normal as far as long range.

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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Definitely would like to see the GEFS start to have some agreement with the OP, GEFS in same type camp as Euro...more of a glancing shot for the SE. Those temps tho on that run lol...fun to see what a little snow can do. After the last few years, starting to think whatever used to be normal output for the analogs, ENSO, and everything else we use...now just needs flipped. Atmosphere almost acts in reverse compared to normal as far as long range.

I think the lack of temp gradient(Typhoon Tip...) around common ENSO conditions is causing problems.  That said, the warm fall teleconnected well with cooler waters off of SA(now warming I think) and the -NAO.  The MJO also correlated well to the heat and the ending of the heat. I personally think most of the teleconnections still work most of the time with some obvious exceptions.  The active IOD and abnormally active MJO pretty much made many old analogs moot last winter.  So, I think some still work and some don't.  @Mr Bobused to always point to each year being its own analog.    I think that is true...  What is making things difficult from a model watching standpoint is how badly the EPS has been from d10-15.  It barely sees any cold w its surface temp depictions.  Its 500 maps have been OK.  The GFS/GEFS have been ok but I never fully trust those.  LOL.  

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I will add, Tellico, someone asked me if this was going to be a severe winter.  Nothing would surprise me.  Plenty of conflicting signals.  My ideas are in the summer thread, but truly these are "anything goes" type atmospheric conditions.  LOL.

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think the lack of temp gradient(Typhoon Tip...) around common ENSO conditions is causing problems.  That said, the warm fall teleconnected well with cooler waters off of SA(now warming I think) and the -NAO.  The MJO also correlated well to the heat and the ending of the heat. I personally think most of the teleconnections still work most of the time with some obvious exceptions.  The active IOD and abnormally active MJO pretty much made many old analogs moot last winter.  So, I think some still work and some don't.  @Mr Bobused to always point to each year being its own analog.    I think that is true...  What is making things difficult from a model watching standpoint is how badly the EPS has been from d10-15.  It barely sees any cold w its surface temp depictions.  Its 500 maps have been OK.  The GFS/GEFS have been ok but I never fully trust those.  LOL.  

lol...yeah,i still remember Mr.Bob told me to stop using analogs years ago

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3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

lol...yeah,i still remember Mr.Bob told me to stop using analogs years ago

And I still use them....but I just trust them less.  I mean it's not like if haven't mentioned 1954 like 100 times in this thread!  LOL.

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And I still use them....but I just trust them less.  I mean it's not like if haven't mentioned 1954 like 100 times in this thread!  LOL.

Not sure about 1954 but we'll see,that was a LaNina starting into srping  that year that lasted into fall of 1956

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4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not sure about 1954 but we'll see,that was a LaNina starting into srping  that year that lasted into fall of 1956

No doubt.  Yeah, I have been half-joking about that analog only because it closely mirrors record highs here at TRI.  That said, the cool water that developed off of SA during early summer might have caused that analog to work for a short time.  It is a bit crazy how closely it has mirrored September and October.  All right, ya'll...going to get into this UAB game a bit more.  Have to support my orange.  Keep the fires lit while I am glued to this pivotal game - sarcasm intended.  

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely agree with the mid-month potential for a warm-up in our forum area.  Mentioned that earlier in the week(this past week) before the ensembles went stone cold.  LOL.  The EPS does show some signs of a ridge late in the run in a fairly significant break from continuity.  It has been wrong about those so far, and its d10-15 runs have not verified well in terms of missing cold.  But with what is shown on the operationals...nowhere to go but up as the Euro deterministic is almost BN for the length of its run at TRI.  The 12z Euro has extreme BN temps over portions of the Plains and southern Canada(bitterly cold) late in its run. Average high at TRI is 63ish for early November.  No idea if that run verifies...but that is a chilly run.

Carver, Anthony Masiello mentioned about a sea of okhotsk low not going anywhere soon and it just popped up based on him.

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00z GFS unloaded the arctic on the Eastern 2/3 of the US (very impressive for beginning of Nov), and kept rotating energy down the backside. Hundred different scenarios in all that mess lol.

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Have to wait and see,cold front towards the end of the work week then another reinforcing front that would bring some snow,would be pretty cold for early Nov

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z NOV03
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SUN 12Z 03-NOV                  34.7    30.8    12003                      0    
SUN 18Z 03-NOV  53.9    33.1    54.0    31.0    18002                      0    
MON 00Z 04-NOV  55.4    44.3    44.4    34.8    13004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 04-NOV  44.8    38.4    38.4    34.3    17004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 04-NOV  38.6    37.2    37.6    33.1    18005   0.00    0.00      47    
MON 18Z 04-NOV  59.9    37.6    60.2    36.8    21006   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 00Z 05-NOV  61.4    50.3    50.0    39.4    19005   0.00    0.00       5    
TUE 06Z 05-NOV  50.0    42.6    42.5    39.2    20004   0.00    0.00       1    
TUE 12Z 05-NOV  43.8    41.0    42.8    39.9    31002   0.00    0.00      57    
TUE 18Z 05-NOV  61.4    42.8    61.5    46.0    35003   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 00Z 06-NOV  62.3    51.3    51.2    44.4    00005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 06-NOV  51.2    42.7    43.0    38.2    09004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 06-NOV  43.4    40.1    41.9    39.3    10003   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 18Z 06-NOV  65.3    39.8    65.6    44.3    17006   0.00    0.00       7    
THU 00Z 07-NOV  67.6    56.4    56.3    47.5    21002   0.01    0.00      66    
THU 06Z 07-NOV  56.4    53.0    53.8    48.3    17005   0.00    0.00      61    
THU 12Z 07-NOV  54.1    52.3    53.8    51.0    18005   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 07-NOV  61.1    53.7    60.6    58.8    21005   0.06    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 08-NOV  60.7    54.3    54.0    53.7    33009   0.30    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 08-NOV  53.9    38.6    38.5    33.2    35012   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 08-NOV  38.5    31.7    31.6    23.0    00009   0.00    0.00       6    
FRI 18Z 08-NOV  39.2    31.3    39.3    17.2    35009   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 00Z 09-NOV  40.1    33.5    33.4    16.4    35006   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 09-NOV  33.4    28.0    27.9    18.5    03003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 09-NOV  27.9    25.4    25.7    20.1    08003   0.00    0.00      91    
SAT 18Z 09-NOV  46.8    25.7    47.1    22.0    21006   0.00    0.00      25    
SUN 00Z 10-NOV  50.4    42.1    42.0    27.2    20006   0.00    0.00      11    
SUN 06Z 10-NOV  42.0    38.1    38.0    28.8    21005   0.00    0.00      10    
SUN 12Z 10-NOV  38.1    37.1    37.1    30.9    20006   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 18Z 10-NOV  57.0    37.2    57.3    36.3    21008   0.00    0.00      24    
MON 00Z 11-NOV  59.7    50.0    49.8    38.2    20006   0.00    0.00      84    
MON 06Z 11-NOV  49.8    44.4    44.3    38.5    21006   0.00    0.00      11    
MON 12Z 11-NOV  44.4    40.8    41.2    39.0    30003   0.00    0.00      66    
MON 18Z 11-NOV  46.0    38.9    40.7    34.0    36009   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 12-NOV  40.7    32.5    32.4    26.7    35009   0.05    0.04     100    
TUE 06Z 12-NOV  32.4    27.0    27.0    15.7    35010   0.10    0.10      14    
TUE 12Z 12-NOV  27.0    19.9    19.8     9.3    36008   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 12-NOV  30.7    19.6    30.9     9.6    01008   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 13-NOV  32.6    26.8    26.7    13.6    02005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 13-NOV  26.7    23.8    23.9    13.5    09005   0.00    0.00      94    
WED 12Z 13-NOV  24.0    20.9    21.2    12.9    11003   0.00    0.00      30    



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Definite would be some BN temps upcoming

 

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z NOV03
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 03-NOV  -9.3    -9.5       8             -10              -4     -10    
SUN 18Z 03-NOV   1.4    -7.0       6              -1              -3      -7    
MON 00Z 04-NOV  -3.7    -3.5       3              -8              -3      -5    
MON 06Z 04-NOV  -7.0    -2.7       3             -25              -2      -4    
MON 12Z 04-NOV  -7.5    -3.2       4             -15              -2      -4    
MON 18Z 04-NOV   5.0    -2.0       2              -8              -1      -3    
TUE 00Z 05-NOV  -0.4    -1.1       2    1066      -5   39.33      -1      -2    
TUE 06Z 05-NOV  -4.6    -2.2       4    1087      -9   39.33      -1      -4    
TUE 12Z 05-NOV  -4.4    -3.4       6    1088      45   39.33      -2      -6    
TUE 18Z 05-NOV   6.0    -3.5       6    1055       2   39.33       1      -4    
WED 00Z 06-NOV   0.5    -3.3       7             -17               3      -2    
WED 06Z 06-NOV  -4.1    -1.0       9             -15               5      -2    
WED 12Z 06-NOV  -4.7     0.7       9               1               6      -1    
WED 18Z 06-NOV   8.5     2.6       6               9               7       2    
THU 00Z 07-NOV   3.5     2.3       4              42               6       3    
THU 06Z 07-NOV   2.1     2.7       3              41               6       3    
THU 12Z 07-NOV   2.1     2.7       2              19               4       2    
THU 18Z 07-NOV   5.9     2.1      -1              29               1       2    
FRI 00Z 08-NOV   2.4     0.7      -1              56              -1       0    
FRI 06Z 08-NOV  -6.2    -6.2       6             -35              -4      -8    
FRI 12Z 08-NOV -10.0   -12.7      10             -40              -8     -14    
FRI 18Z 08-NOV  -5.7   -13.9      10             -35              -9     -16    
SAT 00Z 09-NOV  -8.8    -9.9      10             -27              -8     -15    
SAT 06Z 09-NOV -11.9    -5.6      10             -36              -5     -12    
SAT 12Z 09-NOV -13.1    -4.5       9             -34              -5     -11    
SAT 18Z 09-NOV  -1.2    -4.1       5               5              -4      -7    
SUN 00Z 10-NOV  -3.9    -1.9       2              41              -3      -4    
SUN 06Z 10-NOV  -6.0    -2.1       2               6              -3      -4    
SUN 12Z 10-NOV  -6.5    -0.8       2               2              -3      -4    
SUN 18Z 10-NOV   4.6     3.0      -1              12              -1       0    
MON 00Z 11-NOV   0.7     2.5      -2               2               0       2    
MON 06Z 11-NOV  -2.4    -1.7      -1             -10              -1       0    
MON 12Z 11-NOV  -4.1    -2.6       0             -16              -3      -3    
MON 18Z 11-NOV  -4.4    -5.3       3              -3              -5      -7    
TUE 00Z 12-NOV  -8.8   -10.8       7              55              -9     -13    
TUE 06Z 12-NOV -11.8   -18.0      12              26             -16     -24    
TUE 12Z 12-NOV -15.8   -18.7      15             -36             -21     -31    
TUE 18Z 12-NOV  -9.6   -17.7      14             -32             -16     -26    
WED 00Z 13-NOV -11.7   -14.6      13             -34              -7     -16    
WED 06Z 13-NOV -13.3    -7.5      11             -36              -3     -10    
WED 12Z 13-NOV -14.8    -6.5      11             -36              -1      -9    



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...and the 12z EPS has dumped the eastern ridge idea for days 10-15 during its last two runs.  It has reverted to an eastern trough.   We will see if it holds.  Seasonal changes and those big, cold highs on operational are likely playing havoc with mid-long range modeling.  So, looks like we have a chance to make it to mid-month with BN temps.  The GEFS and GEPS have been fairly steady with maintaining an eastern trough.  Definitely interested in the cold shot(after the Friday cold shot).  It will be interesting to see if modeling continues to show those big 1045-1050+ highs.   If those highs enter into central MT, the current weather pattern will likely bring them SE.  The question is...how far?  IF those highs are that big...then it is likely that modeling is actually underdone on how far SE the cold makes it.  Interesting times ahead.  Lots of great discussion already this afternoon regarding the potential consequences if those big highs push this far south.  Eerily similar to last November, even with a different SST configuration.  Right now, I am just enjoying the cooler temps.  This is my kind of weather.   

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...and really want to emphasize, if the cold is as intense as modeled in the d8-10 range...modeling is going to struggle some.  Those big, cold highs are like a wrecking ball.  So, it will be really important over the nest 3-4 days to get a handle on just how strong those highs are going to be.  Again, if they are 1045+ then it is likely modeling is underestimating how far south that cold pushes.  We saw this look a few weeks back.  The models correctly anticipated severe cold.  However, the first few runs sent it into the East.  However, it went West and busted all kinds of records out there last week.  With the SER impeded right now, the cold has a better chance of making it SE.  But again, need to really look at how strong those highs are and need to see if a mechanism gets it SE with either a storm and/or buckle of the jet.  

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This is about the time frame that big high keeps making an appearance.  That is a potent high.  What happens after this frame is the boundary pushes over the forum area and it snows.  I wanted to put this out there so the set--up is there to compare to for future runs.  Jax has some great output above relating to temps in middle TN.  That(central MT) is a great location for a strong high pressure.  During recent winters, notably December of 2018, those highs signaled very cold weather downstream.  D'Aleo referenced this year yesterday.  I thought it was a good reference, but held his comment in reserve until something besides the GFS depict that.  Hopefully, we see that high as a semi-permanent feature on future runs.  And hey, I wouldn't discount some more high elevation snow for this Friday w even some flurries in the valleys.  Feels like crazy talk after those record warm temps...but that is what makes following weather enjoyable.

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Have to wait and see upcoming the MJO looks fairly strong today into the Maritime with sytems coming off East Asia,even a tropical system recurving around 150E,you ceratintly see the CF coming off of Japan today which should be our CF towards the end of the work week then the Euro shows another a couple days later,we'll see how it plays out

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Think we'll have to see in the long range is if the Low sets up south of the Aluetians,if this does this should be a more +PNA and the warm up should not be that horrid,unlike last year anyways.This pattern looks so weird to me with what is going on into the IO

 

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Should see when the IOD shows these winds in this time of season right now the ENSO rises but yet the PDO craps out.Could happen but looks quite opposite right now,i posted some pics up above

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Put the low like the GEFS shows the PDO will certainly get warmer and not cooler..just saying

Hi jax. I ain't no weather expert like most on here, but i feel like this pattern COULD last until March. Too many things that point that way. Not wishcasting, just being real lol. Now, if things shift, which is possible, then all bets are off. 

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I will say that people who think it will be warm this winter may not like cold weather. Or perhaps skeptical over last winter, which makes sense. I think most want a cold active winter. Its been a while.

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