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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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12z operational Euro is not warm.  Wow.  May be a break from the cold(and we would want it after that run) by mid November according to the EPS.  Who knows...d10+ has been sketchy on the EPS.  

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Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward.  Some of those highs are 1045s.  That is significant early cold if that verifies.  I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL).  There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold.  Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B.  I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs.  If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about.  LOL.

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For all the cold in mid-latitudes across North America, It would seem the polar latitudes torch well into mid-Nov. It would seem the cold air is displaced as a result of the upper level pattern in the Bering Strait. I'm not the most qualified to speculate but perhaps should this verify It could be considered a short term gain and long term loss. (If cold air could be thought of as a limited resource that regenerates?) Regardless I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead weather-wise echoing what Carver said.

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35 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

My gosh. The 54 analog rolls on...

Forgot about that.  LOL.  Yeah, that is really pretty wild.  If that cold verifies, it would be almost a carbon copy in terms of September, October and early November for much of the forum area.  I mean '54 has to run out of steam at some point, right?

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50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Forgot about that.  LOL.  Yeah, that is really pretty wild.  If that cold verifies, it would be almost a carbon copy in terms of September, October and early November for much of the forum area.  I mean '54 has to run out of steam at some point, right?

Carver, this is what i am confused about. The IOD is pretty positive now. I know it will weaken eventually but from what i have read that phase allows the mjo to be in niño phases, which are 8,1, and 2. Those are usually colder phases east of the rockies i think during winter. There are other factors also. Why are people going warm for this winter? Is it climate change affecting their decisions i guess? Imo HM is the best in the business. If he cancels winter, then its time to give up lol.

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Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward.  Some of those highs are 1045s.  That is significant early cold if that verifies.  I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL).  There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold.  Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B.  I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs.  If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about.  LOL.


The 12z Canadian also has the same push of cold air around the end of the run.

Also of note: Tomorrow has a chance to break record for wettest October. Quite the feat after being 2nd driest in September.

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8 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, this is what i am confused about. The IOD is pretty positive now. I know it will weaken eventually but from what i have read that phase allows the mjo to be in niño phases, which are 8,1, and 2. Those are usually colder phases east of the rockies i think during winter. There are other factors also. Why are people going warm for this winter? Is it climate change affecting their decisions i guess? Imo HM is the best in the business. If he cancels winter, then its time to give up lol.

I think a fairly good case could be made for multiple scenarios this winter.  A lot of seasonal forecasting is a crap shoot as there is just too much chaos that can't be accounted for at this time from an atmospheric perspective.  But there are some really good seasonal forecasters out there...Many times those seasonal forecasts have good information even during years when their forecasts don't verify.  Usually the best ones pretty much spell out their ideas plainly in either a general or a meticulous format.  Some of those mets work in private or government industry and can't release their detailed forecast.  So, just have to read between the lines.   As for why folks are going warm...bet the streak. The pattern which has led to a cold inter-mountain northwest has been tough to beat as has the SER.  Until that pattern runs its course...tough to bet against it.  I think probably the warmth in the NE Pacific has some influence on the warm winter outlooks.  I think the ongoing NA pattern does.  I think the rather wonky looking El Nino(cooler in the East) is factoring into those.  I think the uncertainty with the QBO is fueling some of that along with the recent overall tendency for winters to be AN in the East.  As hobbiests, we have the freedom to kick around different ideas with little or no accountability, because our jobs don't depend on it.  If I was going on TV with a winter storm forecast, I doubt I would be as forthcoming with multiple models ideas as I am here.  Folks get mad when forecasts bust.  So many veteran mets are super careful with their words which is not a bad idea in any profession.  Anyway, the new Cansips comes out tomorrow and the Euro seasonal should roll within a week.  Those should be interesting, but I am especially interested in the Cansips as it has been pretty good during the past few winters.

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looking at overnight Euro, RGEM, and GFv3S, kinda wondering if I can get a flurry this evening. May take a quick jaunt up to Frozen Head as the precip. ends to see what I can see. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations above 5,000' in the NE TN mountains and NW mountains of NC.

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It’s pretty darn cold on the west side of the state this morning.  Amazing how cold it is, especially on Halloween.  I wonder where we stand for record lows, I’ll have to look into that and see.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations above 5,000' in the NE TN mountains and NW mountains of NC.

3k def would agree with you Carver, and with how quick the drop is in temps, plus the upslope squeezing whatever moisture trails behind I wouldn't be too surprised.

20191031_084733.jpg

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23 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

NWS Memphis receiving reports of light snow/flurries across northern Shelby Co.

Nice,but that would just be such a big tease to me:snowwindow:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

TNZ088-311545-
Shelby-
Including the cities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville,
Memphis, and Millington
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Light snow falling over portions of Shelby County...

A band of light snow was falling across portions of southeastern Shelby
County, and may affect portions of Germantown and Collierville in
the next 15 to 20 minutes. This light snow is not expected to
accumulate.

 

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7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Nice,but that would just be such a big tease to me:snowwindow:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

TNZ088-311545-
Shelby-
Including the cities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville,
Memphis, and Millington
844 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Light snow falling over portions of Shelby County...

A band of light snow was falling across portions of southeastern Shelby
County, and may affect portions of Germantown and Collierville in
the next 15 to 20 minutes. This light snow is not expected to
accumulate.

 

Lol, mother nature def pulling out all the Tricks for Halloween...not so much on the Treats.

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1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

Lol, mother nature def pulling out all the Tricks for Halloween...not so much on the Treats.

We began October by setting all-time record highs and were dealing with a developing drought.  We end it with severe/heavy rain and snow behind that.  Gotta love the Tennessee Valley forum region.  LOL!!!!!

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The analog of BN November = good winter may fall on it's face again this winter but since today is well BN the next 16 days per the GFS ENS should be uniformly below normal. Let's hope it falls into the more traditional mode of BN November = memorable winter for cold and snowy reasons rather than memorable for nearly wall to wall warmth and no snow like last year. 

Analogs are never perfect but an approximately 70% correlation is pretty strong over an 80 year period on both sides of the coin. That's why I'll always take my chances with a cool November over a warm one for winter purposes. If you are in the far western Valley/Eastern Arkansas your correlation wasn't as strong either way. So you can pretty much have an equal shot at either type of winter regardless of November patterns, based on the last 100 years or so of data from Memphis.

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Still don't think you will find a great analog this winter.When you have these strong signals into the IO which i talked about in the ENSO thread into the first part of Nov you should see a more negative PDO unlike we see right now,tho the PDO recently is certaintly taking a hit.You should right now see the SST'S around 160E be much cooler than what we see right now like what 1994,97 and 2006 was,2019 is much warmer.

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My hunch is the difference between this winter and last winter is that much drier air is coming into the Southwest. If there is enough of it that spills East, there will be some efficient snow producing events fairly far south, maybe from what the local NWS calls "wet bulb magic", although not many, probably less than two. We've had dewpoints in the -10s here for days now. It's ridiculous. Places are toward Arizona are already doing their winter thing, 65F in the day, 15F at night. My statistical methods show that the colder Albuquerque gets in October (lowest low temp) the more lows of 32F or less we have - i.e. the more dry air, without excessive heat. This year, even factoring in the urban heat island and background warming of Earth, I get...109 lows of 32F or less from Oct-May, +/- 24 at around 95% confidence based on the last century (currently at 7 - two weeks ahead of last year, when we had 97).  The 30-year average, to last year, is 92. Dry air can be good to have around in winter if it isn't going to be super cold. 

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My hunch is the difference between this winter and last winter is that much drier air is coming into the Southwest. If there is enough of it that spills East, there will be some efficient snow producing events fairly far south, maybe from what the local NWS cvin willalls "wet bulb magic", although not many, probably less than two. We've had dewpoints in the -10s here for days now. It's ridiculous. Places are toward Arizona are already doing their winter thing, 65F in the day, 15F at night. My statistical methods show that the colder Albuquerque gets in October (lowest low temp) the more lows of 32F or less we have - i.e. the more dry air, without excessive heat. This year, even factoring in the urban heat island and background warming of Earth, I get...109 lows of 32F or less from Oct-May, +/- 24 at around 95% confidence based on the last century (currently at 7 - two weeks ahead of last year, when we had 97).  The 30-year average, to last year, is 92. Dry air can be good to have around in winter if it isn't going to be super cold. 

You put alot of insight in your forecast,i really respect this,you could be right.But the IO shows signs which i thought the IO might die out but seemingly will get even possibly stronger.I still  would like to see if the MJO is nothing but noise and see if a Kelvin will initiate around east or west of the IDL upcoming with seemingly still a WWB upcoming.Either way this is going to effect the ENSO around the IDL and east upcoming into the 2nd week of Nov and beyond

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

You put alot of insight in your forecast,i really respect this,you could be right.But the IO shows signs which i thought the IO might die out but seemingly will get even possibly stronger.I still  would like to see if the MJO is nothing but noise and see if a Kelvin will initiate around east or west of the IDL upcoming with seemingly still a WWB upcoming.Either way this is going to effect the ENSO around the IDL and east upcoming into the 2nd week of Nov and beyond

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

Jax, i have a question. Wouldn't it be preferred to have the warmest anomalies from the central Pacific west from there for winter? I dont think we want to see the 1+2 region warm up to much. Hopefully it dont happen. Would you say its still a little early to make a prediction for winter now or do you have a good idea?

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31 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jax, i have a question. Wouldn't it be preferred to have the warmest anomalies from the central Pacific west from there for winter? I dont think we want to see the 1+2 region warm up to much. Hopefully it dont happen. Would you say its still a little early to make a prediction for winter now or do you have a good idea?

Yes and no

ENSO - El Niño - El Niño–Southern Oscillation - Wikipedia.png

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1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jax, i have a question. Wouldn't it be preferred to have the warmest anomalies from the central Pacific west from there for winter? I dont think we want to see the 1+2 region warm up to much. Hopefully it dont happen. Would you say its still a little early to make a prediction for winter now or do you have a good idea?

I wouldn't make no prediction right now,but yeah you'd rather see the SST's furher west and not east,not sure that will happen right now

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