• Member Statistics

    16,070
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    FirstinWeather
    Newest Member
    FirstinWeather
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

Recommended Posts

Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it.  Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Saturday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning.  Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthens slp ten out of ten times.  Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up.  Fun run.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it.  Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Sunday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning.  Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthening slp ten out of ten times.  Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up.  Fun run.  edit: NE TN still gets more after this pic.

2109464360_ScreenShot2019-11-08at1_52_30PM.png.f70568087ef1964c20a64456ec638e1b.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to focus on / give attention to any one particular met, but since I shared a tweet from Webb earlier and he seems to still be dialed in on the evolution of the upcoming pattern and potential storm tracks, I'll share this as well..

 

 

If anyone objects please don't hesitate to speak up.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Go look at the Euro control for some eye candy. I counted 3-4 "big dogs" on the EPS. Most of the members didn't have much, so we need more support, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models today show 1) Ridge in East Mongolia 2) ULL into the Sea of Okhotsk 3) Trough in the East China Sea.Would seem to teleconnect somewhat.Looks like the AO is going to tank mid month,have to wait and see for more runs

EPS Model - Tropical Tidbits.png

17.png

ao sprd2 gif  618×800 .png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right

12345.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to wait several more runs for us in the Valley,when you see these systems into the China Sea they can seemingly could be more suppressed systems into the GOM,The NAO looks more neutral by the GEFS just as well so i wouldn't discount the GFS as being right and the system just cuts through Florida,actually the Euro shpwed this on the OZ.Posted the Euro 5h from this afternoon and last nights .Something to watch anyways,but this seemingly has to be more a perfect storm for us right now

77.png

88.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not surprisingly, the Euro is a no-go for the longer range event, but most models are now spitting out 3/4ths to 1.5 inches over a pretty large section of the forum depending on the model. The Euro is Eastern areas, GFS Nashville west along and north of 40. NAM gets Alabama in on the action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right

12345.png

Lock it in - funny to see such disparity bet with local mets on this - I do think Nashville National Weather Service even mentions this or has anything besides mostly cloudy in the forecast for this time period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Lock it in - funny to see such disparity bet with local mets on this - I do think Nashville National Weather Service even mentions this or has anything besides mostly cloudy in the forecast for this time period.

That's all we ever in general get in OUR parts when there is a low into the Gulf,clouds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather modeling has backed off significantly to a non-event for the Thursday system.  Probably not a great sign!  That said, weather models are notorious for losing events around the seven day range (for a few model suites).  Time will tell. At seven days, I didn't have much invested...plus it is early November.  Pretty cool to see alway. 

 Looks like LR modeling is coming into better agreement.  Both the 0z GEFS and EPS show some moderation in temps by late next weekend.  Then 500 heights fall again under that ridge, and the trough develops.  Right now, just looks the trough is doing to set up shop in the East.  I hope that continues into December or at least that pattern shows up during winter at some point.  The current pattern(if found in mid-January) would have been money.   Eight days into the month, TRI is -6.4 which is an impressive departure considering that October was +5.4 and September was a whopping +7.3.  The ball game last night had temps which were at or below freezing for most of the second half.   I am going to have to dig deep in order to find one where I felt that cold for most of a HS game in early November.  Deep into the playoffs...they can be bitterly cold.  Plus, I don't think many have acclimated to the colder pattern at this point.  My family still heads out the door without coats on...only to have to hustle back inside in order to grab a jacket.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro/GFS are insistent that a lot of the forum area will get an inch or more of snow in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. The Euro shows 1 inch from near Memphis, to Chattanooga and North. Euro and GFS are really keying on the Knox to Tri area for 1.5-3 inches.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro/GFS are insistent that a lot of the forum area will get an inch or more of snow in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. The Euro shows 1 inch from near Memphis, to Chattanooga and North. Euro and GFS are really keying on the Knox to Tri area for 1.5-3 inches.

It’s funny, the past 2, maybe 3 years, we’ve had some sort of snow in November in west Tn.  Never more than an inch but still, that never used to happen from what I remember as a kid.  Just seems odd that I’ve seen it in multiple years now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

It’s funny, the past 2, maybe 3 years, we’ve had some sort of snow in November in west Tn.  Never more than an inch but still, that never used to happen from what I remember as a kid.  Just seems odd that I’ve seen it in multiple years now. 

We pull it off sometimes too, but it's not common by any means. Especially more than a dusting. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was a nice run for TYS

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z NOV09
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 09-NOV                  28.2    22.9    12003                      2    
SAT 18Z 09-NOV  50.0    28.0    50.2    29.0    24005                     22    
SUN 00Z 10-NOV  52.0    43.4    43.4    32.1    21005   0.00    0.00       2    
SUN 06Z 10-NOV  43.5    39.7    39.7    32.4    21004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 10-NOV  39.8    38.3    38.9    34.3    21004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 10-NOV  60.0    38.9    60.2    38.7    23007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 11-NOV  61.6    51.5    51.3    40.6    21005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 11-NOV  51.3    44.6    44.6    39.3    21003   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 12Z 11-NOV  44.6    41.3    41.7    39.3    22003   0.00    0.00      54    
MON 18Z 11-NOV  61.4    41.4    61.6    43.1    22007   0.00    0.00      58    
TUE 00Z 12-NOV  62.6    54.1    54.0    43.0    21006   0.00    0.00      95    
TUE 06Z 12-NOV  54.8    47.9    47.4    47.0    33007   0.14    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 12-NOV  47.4    30.8    30.6    27.6    36008   0.39    0.21     100    
TUE 18Z 12-NOV  31.1    28.6    30.8    19.4    36009   0.06    0.06      94    
WED 00Z 13-NOV  31.1    23.9    23.8    12.5    01006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 13-NOV  23.8    16.6    16.9     8.7    03004   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 12Z 13-NOV  19.5    15.9    16.1     9.1    05003   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 18Z 13-NOV  34.8    15.6    35.0    18.4    00001   0.00    0.00      35    
THU 00Z 14-NOV  38.7    27.9    28.8    19.9    19004   0.00    0.00      71    
THU 06Z 14-NOV  31.3    24.7    28.7    19.2    18005   0.00    0.00      26    
THU 12Z 14-NOV  29.7    24.5    26.1    17.5    18004   0.00    0.00       1    
THU 18Z 14-NOV  45.9    25.5    46.1    22.0    23007   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 00Z 15-NOV  47.7    39.2    39.1    26.0    23004   0.00    0.00       4    
FRI 06Z 15-NOV  39.5    32.5    34.3    27.0    19001   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 12Z 15-NOV  35.3    26.2    26.8    23.6    06003   0.00    0.00      11    
FRI 18Z 15-NOV  49.1    26.7    49.3    32.7    01002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 16-NOV  50.7    37.5    38.3    33.3    04003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 16-NOV  38.6    34.8    34.8    28.7    04004   0.00    0.00      88    
SAT 12Z 16-NOV  34.9    32.2    32.2    27.4    06005   0.00    0.00       2    



  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

18z nam increased totals a good bit monday/Tuesday. 

Definitely a nice jump for much of the state..think Holston called it in a earlier post, this strong of a front plus fgen and orographic lift is gonna squeeze everything it can out and models are struggling how to handle that the last few days.

20191109_180035.jpg

20191109_180055.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.