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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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Take a look at the 15 day EPS...pretty much the Weeklies from tonight.  I am not going to add much so if Jeff wants to deep dive into them he can.  Just looked like a continuation of the current pattern of cold shots, ridging, cold shots, ridging..........I can live with the pattern depicted - not that I really have a choice unless I move to Fairbanks. Trust me, I have considered it.  LOL.  Then I looked at the price per pound for moving there.  :blink:

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Thanks Carvers for the foliage report. Started getting some change around here too. Regrettably weekend rain and clouds will kill what could have been a nice outing between 2,000 and 4,000 FT. Maybe next weekend at lower elevations. Recent years the weekend after Halloween is still good. 

The 11-15 day actually might get cold per guidance. Looks like a little more support relative to the now 1-5 day stall. More ridging entire north Pac this time, if correct.

Euro weeklies are cooler than the CFS, for those who don't get the Euro. Debate is whether the PNA lines up right, or opposite. Riding GOA or northwest NA? Easiest black/white or red/blue difference is Hawaii. Looks like the PNA will drive the outcome. Keep in mind it's a 4-point teleconnection. GOA, Hawaii, northwest NA, and our beloved Southeast. Few times last year and now recently the PNA explained otherwise strange blocking behavior. 

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Euro has an old fashioned autumn cold front Halloween evening coming through the Valley,i say old fashioned because we haven't seen one in a few years  where temps could drop behind it  15-20 degrees after it passes right after.First time it's showed it so use caution

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Definite would be a line of severe thunderstorms into the OV down into the Lower MS Valley with SW deep layer shear with DP's into the upper 60's,it would boot,scoot and boogie across the Valley being west of the Ms River and 12 hrs later be into the Carolinas,something to watch anyways.

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models.png

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8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Definite would be a line of severe thunderstorms into the OV down into the Lower MS Valley with SW deep layer shear with DP's into the upper 60's,it would boot,scoot and boogie across the Valley being west of the Ms River and 12 hrs later be into the Carolinas,something to watch anyways.

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models.png

Cut the stamp date off,edited to correct

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3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro has an old fashioned autumn cold front Halloween evening coming through the Valley,i say old fashioned because we haven't seen one in a few years  where temps could drop behind it  15-20 degrees after it passes right after.First time it's showed it so use caution

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Yeah been watching the 10/31-11/1 timeframes on the GEFS for a few days now. It's been showing a fairly decent front passage in that window. 18z temps for the for the 30th have been trending up each day (+16° so far). Frontal timing has been wavering between early morning hours on 31st and during the overnight on 31st. Fairly decent chance of first potential freeze following here.

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58 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah been watching the 10/31-11/1 timeframes on the GEFS for a few days now. It's been showing a fairly decent front passage in that window. 18z temps for the for the 30th have been trending up each day (+16° so far). Frontal timing has been wavering between early morning hours on 31st and during the overnight on 31st. Fairly decent chance of first potential freeze following here.

We'll see what happens,i'll start posting on the severe thread tho after this if tomorrows runs shows it.The EPS shows this as well other than timing could be a wicked CF cutting trough the Valley

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A little bit of instability creeping towards west/middle Tennessee and the down sloping is already doing its thing in SE Tennessee b0329e117c2a4b256e75077c8a477fb1.jpg


.

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Escalated quickly per severe wx thread. 

On 10/26/2019 at 9:49 AM, PowellVolz said:

A little bit of instability creeping towards west/middle Tennessee and the down sloping is already doing its thing in SE Tennessee.

Halloween front may finally break the SER. Always takes a few tries. Cool first half of November looks reasonable.

Key will be second half. If November is mostly cold I will quit with my bearish barrage. Otherwise, the SER should occasionally visit per 07-08 and 08-09 winters. NWP will be awful for a few days with competing signals and competing areas of tropical convection.

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Escalated quickly per severe wx thread. 
Halloween front may finally break the SER. Always takes a few tries. Cool first half of November looks reasonable.
Key will be second half. If November is mostly cold I will quit with my bearish barrage. Otherwise, the SER should occasionally visit per 07-08 and 08-09 winters. NWP will be awful for a few days with competing signals and competing areas of tropical convection.

Buddy of mine just NE of Jackson got hit hard. Thinks power will be out for a week. Pretty incredible how bad that was and no mods saw it coming.


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Looks to me like the MJO is about ready to cycle around.  November is a weird month for the MJO....transitioning from fall to winter analogs is tricky.  That simply means the MJO, like many other teleconnections, does not necessarily behave the same way over NA during each season. November is almost winter, but still late fall.  So, my guess would be some warmth during November depending on amplitude and time in each phase.  Just glancing at the MJO, it seems to move quickly through each phase.  The Euro seems behind again on the amplitude as it is still in the COD.   I suspect it gains amplitude as we get closer to reality.  Maybe mid-late November we pop AN for a bit...huge assumptions in that guess though, so take with a big grain.  Seems to me if early November goes cool, looks like a warm December might be on the table with cold potentially coming back early to mid-January.  We have been in the current pattern for about twenty days - that is going back to when the extreme heat broke.  Add another 15 days to now, and that is about five weeks.  I generally roll with 5-7 weeks as a very general rule for patterns before they expire.   The current pattern is not a cold one, but more seasonal than anything.  Early November might actually be slightly BN.  Marching band competition season is over(some HS football still to go)...so I am good with anything.  LOL.  Got soaked Friday night here in Kingsport, did a couple of loads of laundry, and then turned/burned it up I-81 early Saturday.  Saturday was a great day in Lynchburg both for the weather and the band.  The rain held off, and didn't roll through until the last gear was being loaded onto the semi.  Then drove through the early morning hours in a downpour back to TRI.  If any of that commentary looks like total crap...it might be.  LOL.  I hadn't looked(until last night) at model or an index since last Thursday!  Still pretty much looks the same with is good news if one like seasonal.  Anyway, good to be back in a routine.

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Euro trying to show higher elevations some love for Halloween night, but could just be the thingy models do where they show acc precip lingering for 6 hours after it has already gone in reality

giphy.gif 

 

Can Blunderstorm get a flurry? Hopefully, but only time will tell. 

 

 

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Looks like the first freeze of the year is imminent for west Tn in the next 7 days.  Looks downright chilly after our storm blows threw tomorrow.  Picked up 5 1/2 inches from Friday morning to Sunday afternoon over this past weekend.  With another inch or two expected in the next 24-48 hours. 

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Call would be first half BN and second half AN for November for the forum area...but we all know how my call for a warm second half of November turned out last year.  LOL.  So take that with a huge grain of salt.  Though, the pattern did finally flip warm last year...just waited until early December after that big snow here.  Let's see what happens when the cooler pattern sets up shop.  Sometimes it takes some time to give it the boot.   When the warm pattern last year locked-in, models tried to break it down in the 2-3 week window repeatedly.  Let's see what happens with this cold stretch of days.  I still think back-and-forth is likely with a warmer than normal December...cooler Jan and Feb.  If we want a cold January, probably need to have the pattern break warm during late November and let that run into December.  

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I moved to Erwin, TN back in June!

Chasing those first flurries across TN. Its the 3km NAM so probably not going to happen but there is some support from EURO and GFS at least for some mountain changeover.

 today.png.53a05d0c69dbcc321dd7489e7a3acf23.png

 

 

Leaf change in full force here in Eastern TN. 73299828_2685237018201545_5233114210736537600_o.thumb.jpg.0121a46983c8b701201a3da1977ed68d.jpg

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1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

I moved to Erwin, TN back in June!

Chasing those first flurries across TN. Its the 3km NAM so probably not going to happen but there is some support from EURO and GFS at least for some mountain changeover.

Leaf change in full force here in Eastern TN. 

Awesome, man!  You are gonna like that upslope stuff during winter....and probably gonna hate that downslope stuff as well.  LOL.  Seriously, great to have you posting over here.  

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1 hour ago, Blue Ridge said:

The 54 analog will be fine assuming the death ridge doesn't return. :lmao:

Yeah, no doubt!!!  November was BN after that record stretch of temps in '54.  If I remember correctly from the analog creator, the following winter was pretty average in terms of temps.  Temps then might have been a little AN for that decade's norms, but BN by today's norms.  At some point, that analog won't work for us anymore, but it has been a bit uncanny just how accurate it has been, even down to the return of warmth this week...and then the door slams shut on the warmth.  October of '54 double dipped into record warmth twice during that month during non-consecutive weeks.  I doubt we have seen the last of the SER...again, that cold pool off of SA argues for it.  That said, a little bit of SER can help if the storm track is over our area.  It would keep the cold from going straight to New Orleans like it has during past winters.  I am just ready to fire up the wood stove!

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3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I moved to Erwin, TN back in June!

Hey, my hometown! Glad to have a set of Erwin eyes on the forum again. As Carvers mentioned above, Erwin is generally in a favorable spot for upslope (northwest flow) snow showers and is full of microclimates. Unicoi Co. as a whole is arguably one of the most interesting weather counties around. (Not biased at all, of course... :D)

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1 hour ago, Blue Ridge said:

Hey, my hometown! Glad to have a set of Erwin eyes on the forum again. As Carvers mentioned above, Erwin is generally in a favorable spot for upslope (northwest flow) snow showers and is full of microclimates. Unicoi Co. as a whole is arguably one of the most interesting weather counties around. (Not biased at all, of course... :D)

No way! This is my dad's hometown so I have a lot of family here. Grew up coming here for Christmas. I was here for the December 2010 storm when well over a foot fell! I was sold on weather after that:lol:.

Yeah Unicoi County is an amazing place for weather. I need to find the best mountain side somewhere around Unicoi/Erwin for snow and buy a house there hahaha:sled:

Very excited about my first winter in the mountains! And learning an entirely new weather climate.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Me predicting warmth in November is the signal for the Euro/EPS to flip cold on the very next run...I am fairly sure of that.  :mapsnow:

Carver, nobody really knows what will take place.  Imo, by mid to end of November we should have a better idea of what may happen. I dont know if we want it cold or warm in November lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, nobody really knows what will take place.  Imo, by mid to end of November we should have a better idea of what may happen. I dont know if we want it cold or warm in November lol. 

Nah, I was just joking around.  We actually have decent accuracy in the forum from several folks.  My “hobby specialities” are the 2-4 week time frame...and NE TN snowstorms.  I enjoy the pattern recognition stuff.  I got into this hobby though just wanting to know snow accumulations for my backyard.    However, last November was not a good one for me.  I do think we want November to have some cold shots and be BN, even if slightly.  John has some very good data correlating cold Novembers to cold winters.  Didn’t work last winter, but still is a generally good indicator.  As for knowing what will take place, I think there is some skill involved and some good fortune.  But hey, we make our own luck often times.  What makes this interesting is not knowing what will happen...basically making sense of what looks like chaos.  The ENSO pattern right now does tell us some important information as do some other indices such as the QBO, MJO cycle, solar, and IOD.  Biggest thing is seeing where the storm track(s) sets up during November and what the 500 pattern is.  We are now at the time of year where the atmosphere might give us some clues.  There are some rumbles of the NAO turning strongly positive.  That might be a long term problem if it flips right now.  Things like that.

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nah, I was just joking around.  We actually have decent accuracy in the forum from several folks.  My “hobby specialities” are the 2-4 week time frame...and NE TN snowstorms.  I enjoy the pattern recognition stuff.  I got into this hobby though just wanting to know snow accumulations for my backyard.    However, last November was not a good one for me.  I do think we want November to have some cold shots and be BN, even if slightly.  John has some very good data correlating cold Novembers to cold winters.  Didn’t work last winter, but still is a generally good indicator.  As for knowing what will take place, I think there is some skill involved and some good fortune.  But hey, we make our own luck often times.  What makes this interesting is not knowing what will happen...basically making sense of what looks like chaos.  The ENSO pattern right now does tell us some important information as do some other indices such as the QBO, MJO cycle, solar, and IOD.  Biggest thing is seeing where the storm track(s) sets up during November and what the 500 pattern is.  We are now at the time of year where the atmosphere might give us some clues.  There are some rumbles of the NAO turning strongly positive.  That might be a long term problem if it flips right now.  Things like that.

Carver, i thought the way November started and first half of December it would be a legendary cold winter lol last winter, but I guess i was incorrect. I live a little further west than you, but it may not make that much difference. Do you think 13-14 is even a possibility for winter?

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The RGEM, GFS and 3k NAM all have some flakes in my area Thursday evening. Temps are around 35 here at this frame. It was 88 degrees here on October 1st. 50+ degree drop in a month. Its like we had about 15 days of fall this year. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png

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NWP experiment time:

giphy.gif

A little enhanced convention near the dateline. Does that correlate to a 12z colder suite of models?  Not saying that it will actually be colder when the future arrives, but curious to see occasional how flare ups here or there in the Pac and Indian Oceans can impact one run or another of a model.  Which will be more impacted? GFv3S or Euro? Probably not quite scientific to base my conclusions on one run or another, but as an avid model chaser it seems interesting to think about after last year's Indonesian convection of doom (the ICD index, lol, patent pending).

 

 

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