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Dr. Dews

August 2019 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were calls of COC k later next week and beyond based on a few erroneous op runs . Always amazing the folks buying in on those 

It still looks like a nice shot of cooler and drier air. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were calls of COC k later next week and beyond based on a few erroneous op runs . Always amazing the folks buying in on those 

It's still there on both OP and ensembles. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70’s over dews in 40’s and 50’s? Don’t think so 

Easily on the 00z euro for those at 945ft.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tough August for those who don’t look at models.

 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Easily on the 00z euro for those at 945ft.

We gotta remember this in winter when he switches to using ORH. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your call of a slightly AN Augdewst for SNE in doo doo deeper than Ginx yard 

I know. Only +0.3F so far for ORH, but thankfully we bump that up the next few days and then cool down to place my call in the sweetspot.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I know. Only +0.3F so far for ORH, but thankfully we bump that up the next few days and then cool down to place my call in the sweetspot.

There’s very little of a cooldown . Watch that modify each and every run going forward . And it’s hot again after any mild off. Lala lock that 

Whats BDL/ BDR/ PVD MTD?

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s very little of a cooldown . Watch that modify each and every run going forward . And it’s hot again after any mild off. Lala lock that 

Whats BDL/ BDR/ PVD MTD?

BDL +0.8

BDR +0.9

PVD +0.9

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s very little of a cooldown . Watch that modify each and every run going forward . And it’s hot again after any mild off. Lala lock that 

Whats BDL/ BDR/ PVD MTD?

If the Euro verifies it'll be a few nice days with lower dews and nice below normal nights in the rad pits.

BOS +1.4F**
PVD +0.9F
BDR +0.9F
BDL +0.8F
ORH +0.3F
CON -0.8F

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

If the Euro verifies it'll be a few nice days with lower dews and nice below normal nights in the rad pits.

BOS +1.4F**
PVD +0.9F
BDR +0.9F
BDL +0.8F
ORH +0.3F
CON -0.8F

Yeah his best hope is probably PVD since they don't really radiate and downslope torch on a NW flow. Maybe BDR too. BDL will put up some good negative lows next week and ORH will put up some good negative maxes. 

BOS is tossed until they fix it. 

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Euro coming in a little warmer than previous run. Looks like the GFS and Euro from the other day met near the middle.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro coming in a little warmer than previous run. Looks like the GFS and Euro from the other day met near the middle.

I was mentioning/thinking the other day how this summers really been about having a suppressed -AO summer/jet really collocated around our latitude much of the way...

It's been making specific model performance perhaps increasingly error prone because of the 'unmanned fire hose ' metaphor. That core tropospheric conveyor shifts in the run and it yo-yos the panache into warmer(cooler) and the tide  and tempo of the posting goes right along with it.. haha.

It's funny how Scott and Will were poised and couldn't wait to lambaste Kevin for the impertinent jest ...and then new cycle Euro rolls out and he looks like a genius ... next run, trolling clown... and around and around we go.  But it's been doing it to me, all summer.. Just when I feel confident one way or the other... I get dealt reverses and I think the real issue is that we can't seem to really favor a trough or ridged east this year... It seems we're running the summer version of the unmanned loose hose thing -

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Looks like the few degC aloft we lost on the torch got added onto the cool down late week. Everything still on track...just less extreme.

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There is one subtle difference about this run that I have not seen in a Euro run ( short term too - ) since ... oh, early June or so...

-10 C 850s are showing up over Greenland and the far NW Canadian archipelago      :thumbsup:

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Nice cold shot about to come in on the day 10 Euro.. sure we will get really hot days but they are definitely  numbered now

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Nice cold shot about to come in on the day 10 Euro.. sure we will get really hot days but they are definitely  numbered now

Oct and Nov could torch though and if that’s true we already lose the 1st month of winter. 

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12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Nice cold shot about to come in on the day 10 Euro.. sure we will get really hot days but they are definitely  numbered now

I like the -10's up there on the edge of the frame    ...who's with me!

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Kinda. I remember growing up with many freezes in mid September and lately it's been difficult to even get below 40F by then. My first freeze last year was 10/14.

Nothing new here.  My 2nd mildest minimum in 21 years came on 9/9/99, and exactly 3 years later tied my hottest max.  Both 2007 and 2017 had very warm (mid-upper 80s) and humid during 4th week of Sept.  Some of the most HHH wx we had while in Ft. Kent came in late August 1976 and 1977, and that inland site tends to show seasonal trends earlier than anyplace within 100 miles of the Atlantic. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Days of 60’s and 70’s over dews in 40’s and 50’s? Don’t think so 

That's CoC for May and late Sept.  Or for inland NNE.  Try 80/55 for SNE in July/August.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are in SE quadrant of state. Unlucky break for 2% of the region 

How do you explain the mostly cloudy skies with showers earlier in Enfield, Somers and Stafford?  Are those three town in SE CT?  I'm glad I didn't wash my car only to have it rained on.

How's that oak tree doing?  If it's such a nice summer day, why are you out taking that down?  Why wait till the fall when it's cooler?

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