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Minnesota_storms

June 13-30 Severe weather

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I agree with SPC concerning the tornado threat, my concern is for potentially wind-driven very large hail. That would be no fun.

*edit - Towers are going up north of DFW. Initiation seems likely soon.

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The southern supercell has a hook on it, very beefy storms in the NE TX region.

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TXC231-192300-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0242.000000T0000Z-190619T2300Z/
Hunt TX-
527 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HUNT COUNTY...

At 527 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Celeste, or 8
miles northwest of Greenville, moving east at 20 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.
HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

...

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH

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The hail core passing through Campbell looks crazy, warned for baseball sized hail. 

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It's kind of in a bad radar spot but the storm west of Winthrop AR looks very impressive. 

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could it be held up by the CI/AS layers currently in most of the metro from the storms off to the SW near Brownwood/Abilene/Dyess AFB (extrapolating from the ASOS cloud heights and satellite pics there attm). it also looks like two sets of the blowoff tops may have caused a bit of a bubble to form in between, with that bubble right on top of the metroplex.

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00Z RAOB from FWD. just an ever so slight lid still holding attm, especially if you look at the mixed layer, not the pure surface Td. still though 3900 j/kg cape and an LI of -12. just need to bust the cap at 750hPa. the lapse rate from the lid to 500hPa is big though, so pop it, and you'll need more than the Coyote's parasol to protect you from the hail.

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185253730_uh25_024hmax_max_cp.f02400(1).thumb.png.0b46742d4f7eb4fad1485e5859940c39.png

HREF probs look pretty impressive this evening in the Central Plains. Depending on how robust these storms are could have major implications for tomorrow's event. 

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That is an impressive shortwave coming through the S Plains for the end of June on Sunday. Setup looks more May-like synoptically.

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quick question on this double squall line moving through eastern KS and Missouri currently. How close can these lines be before they end up working against each other in a dynamically destructive manner?

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On 6/21/2019 at 9:45 AM, Jim Marusak said:

quick question on this double squall line moving through eastern KS and Missouri currently. How close can these lines be before they end up working against each other in a dynamically destructive manner?

I'm not sure my answer is 100% correct but from my experience it is more about the timing than the distance apart. What I mean by timing is how long it takes for that second line to pass through the same environment the first line did. Generally that second line would weaken as it pushes east due to the fact of the first line eats up all the moisture and instability ahead of it. However, looking at previous models it was ridiculously unstable across that geographic area when those two lines passed through to where it would be hard for that first squall line to work over the atmosphere enough. Those lines were also moving really fast so it's not like that first line had time to work over the atmosphere enough either. Also the LLJ was very strong which definitely fueled those lines. Personally, I would consider this event an anomaly. I'm sure other mets can correct me or add onto this but I hope my explanation helps a bit at least!

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Back on Friday the double squall line or double MCS was able to survive because both had open access to the LLJ and inflow. They were moving somewhat in parallel, instead of one immediately following the other. Eventually they somewhat merged in the Ohio Valley before continuing through the Tennessee Valley and off the Carolina coast. @Jim Marusak @It's Always Sunny The MCSs were impressive. 

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7 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Back on Friday the double squall line or double MCS was able to survive because both had open access to the LLJ and inflow. They were moving somewhat in parallel, instead of one immediately following the other. Eventually they somewhat merged in the Ohio Valley before continuing through the Tennessee Valley and off the Carolina coast. @Jim Marusak @It's Always Sunny The MCSs were impressive. 

that makes total sense. and yes they were impressive. not something you or I will see very often. just hope i remember the mental notes for the next time it happens, say in like 10 year or so.

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