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June 13-30 Severe weather

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There may be some elevated severe potential toward the middle/end of next week as a more robust jet is progged to eject into the central/northern Plains, but until then the pattern appears relatively quiet for mid-June standards.

Given the orientation of a trough across the eastern half of the country, it is noteworthy that the southern Plains, south of I-40, will see some severe threats today and tomorrow. Areas near the Red River are well past their peak season and usually don’t have much severe activity this late in the year. 

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Is that really a PDS severe thunderstorm watch I see?

Don't think I've ever seen one of those outside of derecho events.

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1 minute ago, KSWx said:

Is that really a PDS severe thunderstorm watch I see or is it an error?

Nope, it's a real PDS STWatch 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

   Areas affected...Western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

   Valid 160211Z - 160315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364

   SUMMARY...Significant damaging wind threat emerging in western

   DISCUSSION...Storms that had developed earlier across the Texas
   Panhandle have grown upscale into a mesoscale convective system/bow
   echo that is now entering the western tier of counties in Oklahoma.
   This system has a history of producing significant damaging wind
   gusts of 80+ mph. Forecast soundings support the maintenance in the
   short-term, with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, rich
   boundary-layer moisture (70F surface dew point temperatures), ample
   instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and a developing low-level jet.
   Outflow along the leading edge of the system has thus far kept pace
   with the convection, suggesting the threat for significant damaging
   wind gusts will continue for the next couple of hours across
   southwest Oklahoma and affect central Oklahoma by 04-05 UTC.

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22 minutes ago:

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
926 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Custer OK-
926 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019


At 925 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 5 miles northwest of Custer City, moving south at 10 mph.


HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.


Locations impacted include...
Arapaho and Custer City.


To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is
on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm
shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!


LAT...LON 3577 9902 3576 9888 3556 9886 3554 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 008DEG 10KT 3571 9897




Moving south at 10 mph...hmm.

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This is a bowing squall line that is not producing a lot of storm reports right now. It produced quite a few wind reports earlier. It almost looks like half a hexagon.


  • Haha 1

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36 minutes ago, Chinook said:

possible tornado over I-35E junction with I-635. That's got to be a busy place.

Wonder if it produced at all? That warning came and went lightening quick

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This storm sounds like fun

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
842 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Southeastern Hutchinson County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Northwestern Gray County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Southwestern Roberts County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 842 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
  of Borger, moving southeast at 30 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and baseball size hail.

  SOURCE...Emergency management. At 837 PM CDT, emergency management
           reported an 86 mph gust on the southeast side of Borger.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pampa, Borger, Panhandle, White Deer, Skellytown, Kingsmill and


This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from

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5 hours ago, cheese007 said:

D1 enhhanced for the DFW metro with 5% tor probs.


SPC added a small 10% area for initial supercell development expected late this afternoon/early evening just northeast of DFW. Larger area of hatched hail/wind probabilities as well. The storms are expected to quickly merge into a southeastward moving severe MCS.


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In the Tyler area I had a strong line around 5am that later went severe east of me. Looks like some strong storms this evening into tonight again for my area.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z



   Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
   afternoon across north-central/northeast Texas. Very large hail and
   severe wind gusts are expected. Other isolated severe storms are
   expected from western Tennessee into southern Indiana.

   ...North-central TX/Arklatex...

Note: Some consideration was given to raising severe probs (MDT)
   across north-central TX. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are
   expected with convection into the late evening.
   Strong boundary-layer heating has developed across west TX into the
   DFW Metroplex where surface temperatures have risen into the mid
   90s. This has resulted in a very unstable air mass along southern
   fringe of influential short-wave trough that will eject into AR this
   evening. 19z sounding from FWD is quite impressive with PW values
   >1.6", 40kt surface-6km shear, and steep lapse rates. Latest
   satellite imagery suggests a festering cumulus field just south of
   the Red River and thermals are expected to gradually deepen over the
   next few hours. Scattered supercells will develop and propagate
   east-southeast this evening through the Metroplex and northeast TX.
   Very large hail and damaging winds are expected. One or two
   tornadoes could be noted with discrete activity before clustering
   leads to a potential MCS this evening.

   ..Darrow.. 06/19/2019

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9 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

In the Tyler area I had a strong line around 5am that later went severe east of me. Looks like some strong storms this evening into tonight again for my area.

There was a tornado warning near/west of Marshall, TX and there were reports of wind damage, it wouldn't surprise me to have a survey crew confirm a tornado in that location.

I had some strong winds in Longview from that line, but I think the worst winds hit just north of me.


Models are showing supercell initiation in the 5-7 PM time frame this evening near and NE of the DFW metro.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Areas affected...Northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...southwest
   Arkansas...and far northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 192014Z - 192245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development is expected by late afternoon/early
   evening. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots
   continues to advect high theta-e air northward across central and
   northern Texas in the wake of last night's MCS. A cumulus field has
   expanded and advected northward on the northern extent of this
   moisture rich air mass. The 19Z FWD RAOB suggests the air mass has
   mostly recovered from earlier convective overturning with deep
   boundary layer moisture and very steep mid-level lapse rates (~8.5-9
   C/km) with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the low 90s.
   This combination of a high theta-e air mass beneath very steep
   mid-level lapse rates has led to an extremely unstable air mass with
   MLCAPE around 4000 to 4500 J/kg. CINH has been mostly eroded now
   across this area with less than 50 J/kg on the 19Z FWD sounding. 

   Surface streamline analysis shows the strongest low-level confluence
   just north of Abilene in the vicinity of an analyzed 1004hPa surface
   low as of 19Z. Initial convective development may occur in this area
   as early as 21Z where both buoyancy and mesoscale forcing will be
   most supportive. Additional storms may form eastward along the
   instability gradient as surface temperatures approach the convective
   temperature. In fact, recent 1-min GOES16 imagery shows some deeper
   towering cumulus development along what appears to be the remnant
   outflow boundary from the overnight MCS which is now lifting north.
   Any storms which develop should quickly take on supercell structures
   given the extreme instability and effective shear around 50 to 60
   knots (57 kts FWD 19Z RAOB). 

   Initial storms will pose the greatest threat for very large hail and
   a few tornadoes while storm mode remains discrete. Weak low-to-mid
   tropospheric flow will be a limiting factor to a greater tornado
   threat with the strengthening and elongating low-level hodograph not
   materializing until after 00Z once storm mode becomes less discrete.
   However, there is enough low-level cyclonic curvature in the lowest
   1 to 2 km to support the potential for a few tornadoes. 

   The environmental variables are very supportive for very large hail,
   including the potential for giant hail given the extreme
   instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and >50 kts effective
   shear. The only negative factor to a more widespread threat for
   giant hail will be the limited duration of a more discrete storm

   Widespread storm coverage is expected between 00Z and 03Z due to the
   arrival of the mid-level shortwave trough and a strengthening
   low-level jet. A very large hail threat will remain for a few hours
   before the primary threat becomes damaging wind as storms congeal.
   There is significant wind gust potential given the extreme
   instability and the the steep mid-level lapse rates with the
   potential for wind-driven large hail, especially in the 01-04Z

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


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