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June 2019 Discussion

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Climate models continue to show ridging over sw us and tx during peak summer, as our centre has been forecasting since April. This is good news for folks who like their warm months to not be overly oppressive nor swampy. A good ole fashioned summer incoming, enjoy it.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Filtered sun 66 glad we live here

We sun now. We'll catch up.

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Bro. It’s june frickin 1st.

Did you think it would stay cool and wet all summer with the ever present SE ridge just waiting to expand NW this summer like LR stuff shows?

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you think it round stay cool and wet all summer with the ever present SE ridge just waiting to expand NW this summer like LR stuff shows?

Stop following Cranky. Your boy is awful, makes your visions hallucinate. 

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop following Cranky. Your boy is awful, makes your visions hallucinate. 

Most of the seasonal stuff shows WAR along the east coast as we hit late June and beyond . Euro seasonal etc.. Until then though yes there will be some COC k

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of the seasonal stuff shows WAR along the east coast as we hit late June and beyond . Euro seasonal etc.. Until then though yes there will be some COC k

Then we may agree here. I still don’t see the war establishing itself like last summer though, we’ll see.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Then we may agree here. I still don’t see the war establishing itself like last summer though, we’ll see.

I don’t think it’s nearly as wet this summer . You’d think a lot of Bermuda blues days with like 88/72,, but most of the storms staying out over PA/ NY up into VT while we are much drier. That’s what I’m envisioning 

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13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awesome pic and great comparison to my pic. They have had 718 inches at the summit, 07 they had 222

I had my date wrong. The picture is from 6/9/06. Mammoth had 578" that season.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think it’s nearly as wet this summer . You’d think a lot of Bermuda blues days with like 88/72,, but most of the storms staying out over PA/ NY up into VT while we are much drier. That’s what I’m envisioning 

I’ll be fine with that. We can’t handle another monsoon summer where it rains every evening and mornings are cloudy drizzle.  There was a couple hour window around lunch where the sun poked thru when everyone was stuck in the office. People who have no clue about weather have said they hope this summer doesn’t rain as much as last. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll be fine with that. We can’t handle another monsoon summer where it rains every evening and mornings are cloudy drizzle.  There was a couple hour window around lunch where the sun poked thru when everyone was stuck in the office. People who have no clue about weather have said they hope this summer doesn’t rain as much as last. 

+1 Last year was awful. Way too much rainfall.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll be fine with that. We can’t handle another monsoon summer where it rains every evening and mornings are cloudy drizzle.  There was a couple hour window around lunch where the sun poked thru when everyone was stuck in the office. People who have no clue about weather have said they hope this summer doesn’t rain as much as last. 

I think we'd all take some drier times, but I'm pretty sure it was a wishcast because of his moss issues this spring. :scooter:

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Basically the first half of may in nashville was cool with lots of clouds and showers. Then the second half of May the death ridge centered itself right over my fanny, and we flipped highs in the upper 60s, to two weeks of mid and upper 90s with a dewpoint of atleast 70. Normal high for the second half of May is 81. No storms at all here because of the position of the ridge.  Now we are back to more normal temps, but still no precip in the forecast...maybe next week

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13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Basically the first half of may in nashville was cool with lots of clouds and showers. Then the second half of May the death ridge centered itself right over my fanny, and we flipped highs in the upper 60s, to two weeks of mid and upper 90s with a dewpoint of atleast 70. Normal high for the second half of May is 81. No storms at all here because of the position of the ridge.  Now we are back to more normal temps, but still no precip in the forecast...maybe next week

Sounds like hell

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Killington/Superstar at 10am on 6/1/19. First time it's been TTB in June in a long time. I didn't ski but my son did. Probably about 1,000 people there today. A vast majority of the folks did one run. Free skied in June t-shirt to the first 500 people in line. My son was about 60 in line and got a t-shirt.

 

IMG_20190601_52660.jpg

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Basically the first half of may in nashville was cool with lots of clouds and showers. Then the second half of May the death ridge centered itself right over my fanny, and we flipped highs in the upper 60s, to two weeks of mid and upper 90s with a dewpoint of atleast 70. Normal high for the second half of May is 81. No storms at all here because of the position of the ridge.  Now we are back to more normal temps, but still no precip in the forecast...maybe next week

Diane,  a friend of mine lives in Crossville to your east.  Tennessee is actually getting a bit dry missing all those thunderstorms.  I would hate to live there, too much heat and humidity for me.  As you can see in the thread leaf out is still occurring in the higher terrain.  I just finished leaf out here.  I'll take my low 70's and dews in the 40's and 50's.  

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5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Climate models continue to show ridging over sw us and tx during peak summer, as our centre has been forecasting since April. This is good news for folks who like their warm months to not be overly oppressive nor swampy. A good ole fashioned summer incoming, enjoy it.

Interesting choice of words for your context here...

There cultural vernacular I've ever been exposed to ... "ole fashioned summer" always meant more in the way of torridity.  That's the typical trope in literature and lore ... and nostalgic memory.  

interesting...  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like no real heat in sight.

Euro is close but doesn't  really make it

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Well ...there's obviously some subversive troll tactics by some users peppered across recent pages... People don't like summer... and will 'ruin' it for those that do at least excuse imaginable.  haha!

it's all good... Be that as it may, there are still signs the pattern is slated toward a warmer one toward week two.  

This has been in the GEFs teleconnectors in a slow trend, and also ... nestled in the suggestive tenor of the operational vacillations et al.  These "cues" were not really prevalent in previous weeks...and probably do more at herald a pattern change.  

The EPS has always been flatter and less invasive into the lower Maritimes with that beady-eyed obsession the Euro has in its extended... which frankly, on this 12z cycle seems to even violate large synoptic wave mechanics in pinning that feature into that region with no over-arcing geographic higher heights.... and a full latitude trough pressing into the Rockies... That flow should be lifting more N through Maine.  It does...but waits too long to do so...

I feel it's more likely this pattern plays particularly tempting into the Euros native bias for too much vertical trough depth/ridge heights in that range and that's really what we are seeing that.  I'd recommend toning down that Maritime trough D 8 ish... and also toning down the ridge height/heat it has on D10 ... A flatter overall adjustment to those features actually is a reasonable fit for the bevy of mass-field balancing/tele's I've seen... 

Of course, we have to keep in mind that a 'new' pattern comes with some uncertainty... 

 

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