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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Have 60% tornado odds ever been issued? Could we see them with the 3:00 update?

Yes they have

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Just now, MUWX said:

Have 60% tornado odds ever been issued? Could we see them with the 3:00 update?

Yes, back on 4/7/2006 in Tennessee.

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Crosby County, TX storm starting to show signs of rotation.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Crosby County, TX storm starting to show signs of rotation.

Spotter reporting wall cloud on this cell.

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TWC just said second time in history there's been a watch this high end, all 95's. Jesus.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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I dont think this is worthy of a 60%. This is going to be a significant, possibly historic event, but people need to keep their expectations in check. I've seen comparisons to 4/27/11 on twitter and elsewhere and that's simply not what this is. We aren't gonna get 10 violent tornadoes today. I think 1-2 violent tornadoes is certainly within the realm of possibility and that something as high end as  4/26/91 or 5/3/99 is in the cards if the potential in this event is totally maximized, but something more like 5/24/11 seems like a reasonable outcome at this point. 

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I would not want to be in Paducah, TX right now.  Anywhere along Hwy 287 is likely to see some action shortly.  Cells maturing quickly.

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Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

TXC195-233-357-393-201945-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190520T1945Z/
HUTCHINSON TX-HANSFORD TX-ROBERTS TX-OCHILTREE TX-
201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR HUTCHINSON...SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD...NORTHERN ROBERTS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MORSE, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPEARMAN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPEARMAN, STINNETT, GRUVER, SANFORD, MORSE, WAKA AND PRINGLE. 

 

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Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

TXC107-125-153-345-201945-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-190520T1945Z/
DICKENS TX-FLOYD TX-CROSBY TX-MOTLEY TX-
201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKENS...EASTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CROSBY AND
SOUTHERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CROSBYTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSBYTON, MATADOR, RALLS, DOUGHERTY, AFTON, MCADOO AND ROARING
SPRINGS.

 

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Just now, hlcater said:

I dont think this is worthy of a 60%. This is going to be a significant, possibly historic event, but people need to keep their expectations in check. I've seen comparisons to 4/27/11 on twitter and elsewhere and that's simply not what this is. We aren't gonna get 10 violent tornadoes today. I think 1-2 violent tornadoes is certainly within the realm of possibility and that something as high end as  4/26/91 or 5/3/99 is in the cards if the potential in this event is totally maximized, but I think something more like 5/24/11 is a reasonable outcome at this point. 

The one 60% tornado risk in history spawned 47 tornadoes, which is pretty much exactly average for all high risks. I don't remember if that was considered a mini-bust or not.

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Friendly reminder to keep discussion on individual storms locations precise as possible given how many there will be. Radar sites perhaps as well. The crosbyton cell at lbb looks like it’ll need a tor warning soon

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5 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Friendly reminder to keep discussion on individual storms locations precise as possible given how many there will be. The crosbyton cell looks like it’ll need a tor warning soon

Tornado Tech chase team is on that cell now over at Severestudios.com.

 

EDIT - I mean REALLY on it.  Heading north up TX70 and look to run smack into it if it drops.  Great position for the first intercept of the day.

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Cell near Reydon trying to go too. 

Definitely looks suspect. Shame it’s in such a radar hole

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7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Tornado Tech chase team is on that cell now over at Severestudios.com.

 

EDIT - I mean REALLY on it.  Heading north up TX70 and look to run smack into it if it drops.  Great position for the first intercept of the day.

Link for the lazy.

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/tornado.tech.html

pity the stream is in such high contrast. 

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For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? 

If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ;) ).

If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box). 

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The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
  Northwestern King County in northwestern Texas...
  Eastern Motley County in northwestern Texas...
  Southern Cottle County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 214 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest
  of Dumont, or 13 miles northeast of Dickens, moving northeast at
  35 mph.  This storm is exhibiting some low level rotation east
  northeast of Dickens and near McAdoo.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Paducah, Grow, Dumont, Finney, Delwin, Afton and Chalk.

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Just now, Roger Smith said:

For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? 

If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ;) ).

If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box). 

60% chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of a given point. 

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