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weunice

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About weunice

  1. Spotter network has been reporting brief touchdowns in KS.
  2. I live near Baton Rouge and from having gone to multiple spotter training events with the New Orleans office it is important to recognize that many significant tornadoes here were not even close to evident one frame, there destroying homes the next and gone the next after that. One of our mets worked in the plains offices for a while and he said it is really hard to get a handle on when to issue tornado warnings here because we get a lot in the line, during hurricanes or in otherwise vast walls of rain. FWIW it is the first time I recall them issuing a warning like that in the many years I have lived here.
  3. The image below shows the tornado emergencies issued (3) -- white icon with the black circle around it. It shows the spotter network reports (the white triangle outlines) and the radar confirmed tornadoes (the slighly transparent red / black icons) ... black was warning indicated LARGE tornadoes. There was definitely some real activity in the high risk area. The BRIGHT red triangle is an LSR. There is a lot we know and none of it is logged as local storm reports yet.
  4. NWS LIX short term forecast is interesting ... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 .SHORT TERM... (removed text regarding rain threat) Regarding severe weather potential, it does appear all modes will be possible given the degree of low level speed and some directional shear to develop for tornado potential along with steep lapse rates and storm top divergence for adequate hail generation. The CHAP output on both the NAM and GFS does ping on a high risk situation, showing a Ricks Index at or above 200, which is typically a Particularly Dangerous Situation range. If model soundings are correct, these values show potential of EF-4 tornadoes with rotational velocities close to 200 kt, 95 kt gust potential and golf ball to baseball sized hail potential. Be mindful these are just potentials at this point, but does shed light on the Moderate Risk area currently depicted by SPC over SE Texas and SW Louisiana on the Day 2 outlook. One degree of uncertainty will be how much precipitation loading takes place to diminish the severity threat? It does appear in the CHAP guidance that the severe weather threat is greatest at onset and transitions to heavy rain as the event unfolds.
  5. I know I have seen ridiculous couplets in the plains that are not tornado warned. I can only venture to guess that different offices look for different parameters when warning or not. I would think that the offices in the plains have a much better idea of when a storm is producing vs. not as they follow more classic progressions than, for example, in my home office (LIX) where everything is rainwrapped, it is a hot mess on radar and you can have nothing one frame and an EF-2 on the ground the next. We are far more likely to see any decently strong rotation trigger a tornado warning here. They are also more likely to have conditions where people can see what is happening. I'd guess nighttime storms trigger warnings differently than ones with great visibility and 100 storm chasers on the scene.
  6. I am not seeing your images SmokeEater
  7. Where I drew the red lines are where warnings or changes in warning text was issued regarding the tornado. They are doing regular updates quite well indicating that the tornado has been on the ground for the majority of that path.
  8. Tornado ... possible language introduced into the lone SVR warned cell out right now.
  9. 70/30 probs on the tornadoes (2+ count and EF2+)
  10. The Killian tornado ramped up as it went into the marshes. It would be difficult to access areas to assess damage on those and in many instances not much vegetation to look at. The only "thing" it crossed was the I-55 bridge and concrete tends to fare well in all but the most violent tornadoes. I suspect that tornado may have actually been the equal of the other two. The Killian and Watson tornadoes both passed ~16 and ~12 miles from my home as the crow flies.
  11. It looks a lot like the other images of the Donaldsonville tornado today. It did look familiar ... thanks for the correction. I should have posted the ones with the refineries and chem plants that I am very familiar with in the foreground
  12. On the fatalities - I haven't either. It was a local spotter that I follow on Facebook. He is usually pretty reliable but I think he got some sketchy info this time. I shouldn't have posted it here without a secondary confirmation.
  13. Here are a couple ... I am hearing reports of fatalities in East New Orleans
  14. It is this time of year. I am in south Louisiana right now and I am posting actual pictures of tornadoes all over Facebook and am still getting the usual political banter and pictures of cats. Some people are in a life threatening situation and every indication to me is that they haven't a clue they are. There is not much of an excuse here. We get stuff like this all winter long.
  15. The locations of the icons are from the initial positions in the warnings where a "confirmed" was noted ... black icons are large tornado text in warnings and the white/black circle one is where the tornado emergencies were issued.