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powderfreak

NNE Warm Season Thread

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23 hours ago, tamarack said:

Average for winter's largest:  14.97"

I do actually track that parameter in my data, and the stats are surprisingly consistent on it right now.  For the largest storm of the season, the mean is 22.4” and the median is 22.5”, which was also the largest storm from this past season.

Just this season I added the dates associated with those largest storms to get a sense for when they’re occurring.  That’s surely going to be quite variable with dates ranging from 12/3 (19.2”) to 3/19 (21.3”), but February is the middle of that distribution with the mean at 2/6 and the median at 2/22.

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Wet pattern continues... 

Another .4-.5" here in past 24 hours though just south of here was .6-.9".  

IMG_3443.GIF.6be0383528ef7b8c9ca83dff0427254b.GIF

BTV has another .5-1.5" forecast overnight for the area.  

62012869_2741081199297097_54518336937084

Should be over 10" in the past 36 days by morning.  

Including the cities of Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga,
Island Pond, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury,
Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Rutland,
Springfield, White River Junction, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, and Killington
325 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...Moderate to Locally Heavy Rainfall Tonight Could Lead to
Localized Flooding...

Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the northern
Adirondacks, southern and central Vermont, and portions of the
Northeast Kingdom tonight.

An additional 1-2 inches of rain are expected between this evening
and Thursday morning in these areas. Given the recent rainfall the
area has received (some areas up to a half inch in the last 24
hours), the ground is already relatively saturated. As a result,
the additional rainfall could cause rapid rises of small streams
which may lead to areas of minor flooding and ponding of water on
area roads.

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23 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I do actually track that parameter in my data, and the stats are surprisingly consistent on it right now.  For the largest storm of the season, the mean is 22.4” and the median is 22.5”, which was also the largest storm from this past season.

Just this season I added the dates associated with those largest storms to get a sense for when they’re occurring.  That’s surely going to be quite variable with dates ranging from 12/3 (19.2”) to 3/19 (21.3”), but February is the middle of that distribution with the mean at 2/6 and the median at 2/22.

Re-calculated largest storm - actually 14.92"   Median is 13.8".   Avg. date of largest is Feb. 10, median 4 days later.
Biggest by month
NOV:  once, in 11-12.
DEC:  1.5  (16-17 had 21.0" storms in both D and F.)
JAN:   6
FEB:   4.5
MAR:  6
APR:   2
Average peak pack:  30.1",  Median 28"   Average last day of continuous 1"+:  April 6,  Median 4/8.

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20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wet pattern continues... 

Should be over 10" in the past 36 days by morning.  

Yes, I just checked – 10.39” through today and almost 30” for the calendar year.  This year’s liquid contributed to over 130” of snow and a good supply of moisture to start the growing season.  It looks like we’ve got an extended stretch of sunny, pleasant weather to enjoy now as we head through the weekend.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Yes, I just checked – 10.39” through today and almost 30” for the calendar year.  This year’s liquid contributed to over 130” of snow and a good supply of moisture to start the growing season.  It looks like we’ve got an extended stretch of sunny, pleasant weather to enjoy now as we head through the weekend.

That's more than twice my total May 1 forward, and 2019 is at about 20.45".  (Depending on what fell after 7 AM this morning.)

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7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's more than twice my total May 1 forward, and 2019 is at about 20.45".  (Depending on what fell after 7 AM this morning.)

I know PF has been commenting on our rainfall in this neck of the woods lately because it’s been on the wet side, but I haven’t looked at the regional rainfall maps to see the details throughout NNE.  It looks like there’s quite the variability though based on your numbers, so it will be interesting to see a regional rainfall map at some point.

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After my trip, I will say if anyone gets to visit the Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe, they are worth it.  The "Transylvanian Alps" are pretty stunning.

This is like a 4-5000 vertical foot rock wall, ranging from roughly 4,000ft elevation in the valley to 8-9,000ft at the ridgelines.

61904646_10103753346275840_6147162012435

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On 6/6/2019 at 4:17 PM, J.Spin said:

I know PF has been commenting on our rainfall in this neck of the woods lately because it’s been on the wet side, but I haven’t looked at the regional rainfall maps to see the details throughout NNE.  It looks like there’s quite the variability though based on your numbers, so it will be interesting to see a regional rainfall map at some point.

BTV posted some good maps summarizing  the wet May we experienced.  Our area or axis looked to be the wet "winners" for precip.

Definitely fits with what I remember...lots of bigger rain events.  Not only was the rain consistent but there were at least 3 (maybe 4) separate events over 1" water...mixed in with lighter events. 

But look those totals... that's a large area of 6-9" totals through the heart of the forecast area.

62365306_2744998542238696_53859425259513

61931447_2744998552238695_38643802545921

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The dog loved cooling off in every pile of snow we came across on our hike today.

But c'mon, the weather doesn't get any better than this for outdoor recreation.  60s up high, 70s on the lower half of the hill, with low humidity, full sunshine and just enough breeze to keep the black flies moving.  It's almost euphoric being that nice and comfortable for hiking.

61978615_10103755278887870_1029363666392

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Gorgeous day today made it to 78 after a low of 36 - a 42 degree swing!

Went to the Lupine Festival in Sugar Hill and ironically... Not a single lupine is flowering yet! Kinda funny. Things are definitely behind schedule. 

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This is the summer weather I envisioned when I moved to New England, mid-upper 70s low dews and perfect sleeping weather.  Temp down about 20F in a few hours down in to the 50s now.

Of course we will have our bouts with higher temps and dews at times which will make a few posters happy, but sign me up for this.

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On 6/6/2019 at 7:55 PM, powderfreak said:

After my trip, I will say if anyone gets to visit the Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe, they are worth it.  The "Transylvanian Alps" are pretty stunning.

This is like a 4-5000 vertical foot rock wall, ranging from roughly 4,000ft elevation in the valley to 8-9,000ft at the ridgelines.

61904646_10103753346275840_6147162012435

That is awesome! I will be in the Scottish Highlands for a couple of days in August.

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33 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That is awesome! I will be in the Scottish Highlands for a couple of days in August.

Nice! The Cuillin hills region is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been. Really the whole west coast of Scotland was awesome.

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7 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice! The Cuillin hills region is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been. Really the whole west coast of Scotland was awesome.

Very cool! I will be in Glencoe.

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On ‎6‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 7:55 PM, powderfreak said:

After my trip, I will say if anyone gets to visit the Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe, they are worth it.  The "Transylvanian Alps" are pretty stunning.

This is like a 4-5000 vertical foot rock wall, ranging from roughly 4,000ft elevation in the valley to 8-9,000ft at the ridgelines.

61904646_10103753346275840_6147162012435

Fantastic pic PF.  I’m sure you’ve zoomed in and looked at that gorgeous cirque up top there in the middle – oh man does it look like it would provide some beautiful turns.  The only issue I can see is access, at least from the side that’s shown.  That’s how it was when we lived in Montana – the valleys were ~4,000’ and the peaks were 9,000’ – 10,000’.  You could easily ski well into the summer if you wanted to, as long as you were willing to hike 4,000’+ and however many miles to get to the terrain.  As neat as it is to have potentially skiable snow “relatively” close, it’s just not that practical for a typical day trip though.  Hiking 4,000’ – 6,000’ of vertical and several miles is already a beefy hike on its own, not to mention hoofing it with skis, ski boots, and other ski gear.  With all that said, it almost looks like there’s some sort of structure or something at the ridge of the cirque?  Maybe access isn’t as difficult from the back side?

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10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Fantastic pic PF.  I’m sure you’ve zoomed in and looked at that gorgeous cirque up top there in the middle – oh man does it look like it would provide some beautiful turns.  The only issue I can see is access, at least from the side that’s shown.  That’s how it was when we lived in Montana – the valleys were ~4,000’ and the peaks were 9,000’ – 10,000’.  You could easily ski well into the summer if you wanted to, as long as you were willing to hike 4,000’+ and however many miles to get to the terrain.  As neat as it is to have potentially skiable snow “relatively” close, it’s just not that practical for a typical day trip though.  Hiking 4,000’ – 6,000’ of vertical and several miles is already a beefy hike on its own, not to mention hoofing it with skis, ski boots, and other ski gear.  With all that said, it almost looks like there’s some sort of structure or something at the ridge of the cirque?  Maybe access isn’t as difficult from the back side?

do they get a lot of snow there?

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Hey peeps. Question. We are under attack by these stupid little bugs I've never seen before. Even my poor dog is full of bites. Daycare is keeping the kids inside because of them. WHAT ARE THEY??? And most importantly... when will they be gone??? They are awful! And I'm not sure what they are. They look almost like a tiny beetle... bigger than a gnat but much small than a fly. Any ideas???

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2 hours ago, alex said:

Hey peeps. Question. We are under attack by these stupid little bugs I've never seen before. Even my poor dog is full of bites. Daycare is keeping the kids inside because of them. WHAT ARE THEY??? And most importantly... when will they be gone??? They are awful! And I'm not sure what they are. They look almost like a tiny beetle... bigger than a gnat but much small than a fly. Any ideas???

Alex,  just sent you an email but I would bet these are the famous NNE black flies.  Much smaller than house flies, really look like gnats.  Swarm to the point you can't go outside.  In your eyes, up your nose, swallowing them.  I always heard Mother's Day to Father's Day is blackfly season in NH.  The black fly season is over in S NH and is now ending in my area of Central NH but your cold spot is even further behind.  Wear the screen headgear or shirts, we have to for a week or so until they pass.  There awful things and bite like crazy

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44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  just sent you an email but I would bet these are the famous NNE black flies.  Much smaller than house flies, really look like gnats.  Swarm to the point you can't go outside.  In your eyes, up your nose, swallowing them.  I always heard Mother's Day to Father's Day is blackfly season in NH.  The black fly season is over in S NH and is now ending in my area of Central NH but your cold spot is even further behind.  Wear the screen headgear or shirts, we have to for a week or so until they pass.  There awful things and bite like crazy

Totally right. The next question is... this is my third summer here, why is it that it’s the first time I notice them??? 

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On ‎6‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 10:58 AM, tamarack said:

Average peak pack:  30.1",  Median 28"

Getting back to the post-winter data analysis, I do track the seasonal maximum snowpack depth.  For our site during my period of record it’s got a mean of 27.1”, a median of 26.0”, and 8.4” is the S.D.  That seems fairly similar to the values you reported, although I suspect the water content in the snowpack on those days would be higher at your site.  Often the peak snowpack depth at our site each season will be attained from being topped off by some dry upslope snow on the back side of a storm cycle.

This year I added the dates for when the max snowpack depth occurred each season, and they range from as early as 12/30 (19.0”) in the 2012-2013 season to as late as 3/16 (29.5”) in the 2016-2017 season.  It’s amazing to the think of peak snowpack depth happening in December, but checking that season, December was the snowiest month.  It was only modestly above average with 49.5” of snow, but I see that January and February were both notably below average with roughly that same amount (53.3”) combined.  March snowfall was roughly average at 30.8”, but it just wasn’t enough to push the snowpack past that December peak.

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A weather friend sent me this on today's date.

"1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland."

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21 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

After 228 days it’s over. BTV pic

 

Yeah here was my comparison of the stake in mid-winter depth and currently...I had sent them this and gave a report of the snow around the stake and I thought a trace amount would be the right call (which they already made that call too) due to no snow around/in front of the actual stake but then other areas with 1-2 foot deep patches. 

It is crazy how hard it is to melt that snow up there at 4,000ft.  The Cliff Trail hiking trail from the top of the Gondola also has quite a bit of snow on it still, all the nooks and crannies filled in and packed hard from a windy, wet winter.

62308452_10103755213972960_2436373808437

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On 6/10/2019 at 9:48 PM, alex said:

Totally right. The next question is... this is my third summer here, why is it that it’s the first time I notice them??? 

We have a solid 10-14 day window of them here where 3-5 of those days are unbearable. It just must be coincidence that you haven't noticed them before because your area would be a nice breeding ground with the river and streams. Black flies love NNE.

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On 6/10/2019 at 9:02 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  just sent you an email but I would bet these are the famous NNE black flies.  Much smaller than house flies, really look like gnats.  Swarm to the point you can't go outside.  In your eyes, up your nose, swallowing them.  I always heard Mother's Day to Father's Day is blackfly season in NH.  The black fly season is over in S NH and is now ending in my area of Central NH but your cold spot is even further behind.  Wear the screen headgear or shirts, we have to for a week or so until they pass.  There awful things and bite like crazy

I can tolerate mosquito bites, and even after the initial pain of a horse/deer fly, but black fly bites I think I have a special reaction to. They itch like crazy. To the point I'd consider severing the limb than go on. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I can tolerate mosquito bites, and even after the initial pain of a horse/deer fly, but black fly bites I think I have a special reaction to. They itch like crazy. To the point I'd consider severing the limb than go on. 

Any thoughts on potential for extremely dense fog at PWM tomorrow night? 

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