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powderfreak

NNE Warm Season Thread

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Wow, how are there not some sort of flood warnings out there?  I just drove from Burlington to Waterbury and it was like driving through a blizzard with the incredibly low visibility from extremely heavy rainfall.  Even the fastest windshield wiper speed was no match for gaining visibility.  There was ponding on the roads in many places, with several inches in a few low spots, and people had to drive really slowly.  I’m just not sure where all this water is going to go around here, because this heavy rainfall is certainly not all that localized.  The rainfall was nonstop heavy all the way from the Champlain Valley, into the mountains, and my wife said she had the same thing heading out to the Mad River Valley.

It's been a pretty solid rain event.  Two hours of steady heavy rain.

The heaviest axis cut through the I-89 corridor on a SW to NE axis.  A soaking rain.

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Got way more than I'd expected, as by 10 last evening the best echoes appeared to be sliding to our north.  Finished at 1.91" in about 4 hours, with occasional thunder throughout the first half of that period.  Cocorahs reports show 8 stations - 5 in Somerset County and 3 in adjacent Franklin - with 1.72" to 2.90", and nowhere else above 1.20".  Temple to Palmyra ftw.  My gauge had caught just 0.20" during the 3 weeks Sept. 3-23 so other than some driveway gravel on Starks Road (Rt 134) there was no evidence of the downpour by 7 AM.  Sandy River rose about 5" and is already going back down. 

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54 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

September comes to an end in very dry Central NH.  Finally it looks like some rain chances.  Further north there has been more rain.  I am 1.78" for the month but over an inch of that occurred around Sept 2nd.

Picture of Pemigewasset  River in Bristol NH area.

Wow I would've thought you had more than that but a couple events probably went just north of you.  I'm just shy of 4" of water in September though in two events the core of convection moved just south of here by 5-10 miles.

Immediately SW of here in Richmond, VT they've had 5.45" and in Duxbury next to Waterbury they are over 5" too.  J.Spin looks to be a couple tenths shy of 5" too. 

The month certainly had a dry vibe to it and I was surprised at the local totals...felt drier but actually not bad, averaging around 1"/week or even higher just south of here.

 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow I thought you had more than that.  I'm just shy of 4" of water in September though in two events the core of convection moved just south of here by 5-10 miles.

Immediately SW of here in Richmond, VT they've had 5.45" and in Duxbury next to Waterbury they are over 5" too.  J.Spin looks to be a couple tenths shy of 5" too. 

Yeah, there’s another tenth or two out there in the gauge, so it looks like we’re a bit past 4.8” for the month.  This September has been wetter than average, so the lawn is doing well.

Seeing the picnic table talk in the forum, I just did a quick check on the Mansfield point forecast, and indeed flakes are starting to appear out there toward the weekend:

Friday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 16 mph.

If potential flakes are starting to appear down below 4,000’, we’re certainly getting close now.  It’s October by that point, so it’s totally normal, but it’s always interesting to watch those first volleys of winter make their way into the models and forecasts.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

September comes to an end in very dry Central NH.  Finally it looks like some rain chances.  Further north there has been more rain.  I am 1.78" for the month but over an inch of that occurred around Sept 2nd.

Picture of Pemigewasset  River in Bristol NH area.

Pemi.jpg

Wow that seems weird. 4.7" here for the month. It came in big rainstorms so it's been dry at times, but certainly not dry overall

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Drought and heat are the story down here. I am missing those cool fall conditions of VT! These mid 90's are killing me.

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On ‎9‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 9:59 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Here is a map of C/NNE rainfall over the last 30 days.  We had a nice soak on the first couple of days of September.  If not for that the departures would be more severe.  It's another world up towards PF and Alex.

Similar results but different sequence, as more than 3/4 of the month's RA came in the last week, 70% on 9/24 alone.  The 3.18" is a half inch below the average while a bit higher than the median.

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September is in the books here. 2.00"....dry, but not as bad as most.

09/01 70.2  47.0 0.00   11  0.0  0
09/02 62.5  57.9 0.41    9  0.0  0
09/03 73.0  54.1 0.00   10  0.0  0
09/04 74.2  56.9 0.20   18  0.0  0
09/05 71.0  48.3 0.00   15  0.0  0
09/06 67.4  46.6 0.00   12  0.0  0
09/07 69.0  49.8 0.55   14  0.0  0
09/08 68.8  48.8 0.00   15  0.0  0
09/09 68.1  44.6 0.00   11  0.0  0
09/10 66.4  45.4 0.00   12  0.0  0
09/11 79.7  61.3 0.16   14  0.0  0
09/12 66.1  47.3 0.13   10  0.0  0
09/13 65.8  42.7 0.00   12  0.0  0
09/14 63.5  42.2 0.01   12  0.0  0
09/15 72.5  53.1    T   11  0.0  0
09/16 66.6  47.1 0.00   21  0.0  0
09/17 67.7  45.5 0.00   12  0.0  0
09/18 60.3  39.6 0.00   14  0.0  0
09/19 67.4  36.2 0.00    7  0.0  0
09/20 75.3  40.9 0.00   10  0.0  0
09/21 79.9  52.8 0.00   10  0.0  0
09/22 81.2  52.6 0.00   11  0.0  0
09/23 81.0  63.3    T   18  0.0  0
09/24 72.8  49.3 0.29   14  0.0  0
09/25 64.9  47.6 0.00   14  0.0  0
09/26 69.9  46.5 0.25   12  0.0  0
09/27 68.2  45.8 0.00    8  0.0  0
09/28 77.2  44.3 0.00   15  0.0  0
09/29 67.2  42.7 0.00   19  0.0  0
09/30 57.0  36.0 0.00    8  0.0  0
      69.8  47.9 2.00       0.0

 

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40+ CoCoRAHS stations in Vermont with over 3.50" of rainfall this month...some stations as much as 5.0-5.6" just south of here in J.Spin's neighborhood of Duxbury, Richmond and Huntington.

You guys to the south/east will be stealing all our QPF in the winter when the coastal storms roll in.

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September Precipitation: 4.93”

2019 Precipitation: 46.39”

2019 Water Year Precipitation:  64.86”

 

September is the driest warm season month in my data set, but this year its total precipitation came in about an inch above average and it wound up being our wettest September since 2012.  Typically, even average precipitation for the month is plenty of moisture to keep the lawn happy with the cooler, early fall temperatures, so the extra precipitation was just sort of a bonus.

The end of September not only marks the end of the month, but the end of the 2019 water year, and that came in on the high side as well.  The average I have in my data here is in the 55” range, and this year it’s about 1 S.D. on the high side.  A lot of the water year total came from the extra moisture we got during the winter, with 30.82” of total liquid during the accumulating snowfall season.

Calendar year precipitation is currently a bit ahead of its average pace as well, and we’ll see what the next three months bring.  We typically average about 50 inches of snow at our site in the coming three months, so hopefully we can keep the moisture train going to get that early snowfall down to start a good snowpack in the valleys and mountains.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You guys to the south/east will be stealing all our QPF in the winter when the coastal storms roll in.

Based on what I’ve heard from the meteorologists in the forum, haven’t the number of coastal storms been abnormally high in recent seasons?  I hear the SNE folks talk about how their snowfall averages over the past decade are on the high side – is that due to coastal storms?  I did a quick look at my storm list from last season and grabbed any that were “coastal”, or along/near the coast for the list below.  I found 15 in my storm list, but there may be more because a storm won’t be in my list if we don’t get any accumulation at our site.  It seems like defining what a “coastal storm” is could be tough though, with the way things redevelop and take various tracks.  What was last season like with respect to the typical number of “coastal” storms?

 

Storm   Date                 Description

3          10/23/18          Compact low pressure system off the New England Coast followed by upslope flow

4          10/27/18          Nor'easter

6          11/9/18            Double-barrel low pressure - eastern Great Lakes & coastal lows

7          11/13/18          Low pressure system hugging New England coast

9          11/15/18          Winter Storm Avery - low pressure just inland from New England coast

12        11/20/18          Low pressure passing through Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New England

14        11/26/18          Winter Storm Bruce - triple point low passing through New England

22        12/17/18          Vertically stacked system off coast + upper level trough/upslope

30        1/2/19              Clipper system with a bit of coastal redevelopment

36        1/19/19            Winter Storm Harper - Low pressure tracking from NYC to Gulf of Maine

40        1/29/19            Winter Storm Jayden - St. Lawrence/Ottawa Valley low & coastal development

45        2/12/19            Winter Storm Maya - low pressure tracking through Great Lakes & redeveloping off the coast

47        2/18/19            Winter Storm Oren - Benchmark low with weak shortwave moving through Northern New England

52        3/3/19              Winter Storm Scott - low pressure passing along coast near Cape Cod

59        3/21/19            Upper-level closed lows consolidating with coastal development and upslope

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21 hours ago, dryslot said:

1.31" for the month here.

Difference was the evening event on 23-24, which 1.7" to 2.9" on the Route 2 corridor from Rumford to Newport along with some spots 20-40 miles north of there.  And almost nothing to the south.)

High for the month was 76, tied with '94 and '96 as coolest max.  Low was 27 on the 19th, slightly below my average for the month's coolest.  3.18" RA was 1/2" BN but kicked the median into a virtual tie with February for driest median.   2.11" RA was recorded on the 24th though about half came on the 23rd after my 9 PM obs. 

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