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Dr. Dews

May 2019 Discussion

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It is nearly May, the gateway to summer; and certainly close enough for long -range musings. Let's discuss the upcoming pattern and wx impacts.

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Some of the signals weren't looking very promising with a ridge becoming established across the southwest with a trough/cut-off potential in the east moving into May.

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26 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

We should start June also

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

July right around the corner too if you use the euro monthlies.

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

We should start June also

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yup.  It's never too early.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Beginning of May looks meh. Maybe we sneak in a few HHH dandies, but not many. 

How did your April forecast turn out? The first one from around the 20th of March, not the six subsequent....

it's only the 20th, but since you're looking at May, might as well, score it now.

zero. 

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Relative to climo, looks like standard fare Nino-esque pattern on the majority of LR guidance. Normal or above temps and precip a good bet. We'll see.

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Time to turn this shit around.  What's been a great start for lawns, has been a shit start for outdoor activities.

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On 4/16/2019 at 1:31 PM, weatherwiz said:

Some of the signals weren't looking very promising with a ridge becoming established across the southwest with a trough/cut-off potential in the east moving into May.

Pretty easy up here. Suckotrophic vector in full effect.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Pretty easy up here. Suckotrophic vector in full effect.

We *may* luck out down this way (though I use that term loosely. I foresee tomorrow where DXR gets to like 73 ad BDL is about 52. 

I'm working on EWR and even that is a challenge...MAV says lower 80's and MET is 50's lol. euro gets into the upper 70's. I think EWR gets into the lower 70's then the BDCF approaches and while it may not go through both the NAM/GFS bufkit shift winds to the SE so temps probably drop like a rock late afternoon. 

I always chuckle when MOS/bufkit are complete opposite in terms of winds. MET keeps EWR 60-90° yet on bufkit it's more 240-270°.

The high to the northeast is pretty weak and that would certainly indicate more of a E to SE flow, but the low back to the west would yield more of a W flow. Seems like on all guidance though EWR gets at least W flow through mid afternoon. 

ahhhhhhh

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We *may* luck out down this way (though I use that term loosely. I foresee tomorrow where DXR gets to like 73 ad BDL is about 52. 

I'm working on EWR and even that is a challenge...MAV says lower 80's and MET is 50's lol. euro gets into the upper 70's. I think EWR gets into the lower 70's then the BDCF approaches and while it may not go through both the NAM/GFS bufkit shift winds to the SE so temps probably drop like a rock late afternoon. 

I always chuckle when MOS/bufkit are complete opposite in terms of winds. MET keeps EWR 60-90° yet on bufkit it's more 240-270°.

The high to the northeast is pretty weak and that would certainly indicate more of a E to SE flow, but the low back to the west would yield more of a W flow. Seems like on all guidance though EWR gets at least W flow through mid afternoon. 

ahhhhhhh

Models are pushing that sfc boundary westward through the day. Maybe some late morning highs followed by steady or slowly falling temps?

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models are pushing that sfc boundary westward through the day. Maybe some late morning highs followed by steady or slowly falling temps?

Depending on how much, if any, heating is going on maybe some areas can sneak out a pleasant morning and get temps to boost up, but yeah I think tomorrow could really screw people in that regard. Temps should certainly fall through the day and maybe even quickly in some areas. But then again...maybe nobody warms if we're socked in with fog/llvl clouds for much of the morning lol

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