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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Few big hits on the 12z EPS. It's a longshot  but worth watching

Nice change of pace from all the dews talk anyway.

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He's terrible. I can nail a winter if I say minus this storm or that storm. I've seen his tweets and forecasts.

Lots of hate 

he did very well last winter

nobody is minusing a storm, nobody had 12”+ 24 hours out for The little Nuke...I mean please

i dont read tweets, I don’t even enjoy typing the word, I read his blog, nobody is worshipping lol

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

image.thumb.png.27add3352a9fa0862088052c9db93ce8.png

Alot of hits on the 12z GEFS sucks it's two weeks away... but EURO definitely  semi interesting for next week

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6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

You guys know how to do tropical. I miss the roaring 50s and 60s and I long for a 38' repeat.

Pattern looks good for it just need something  to cook up

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The GFS has a tendency to sweep these TCs away too quickly and now we are seeing new solutions on the table. Still not very favorable for getting the Bahamas disturbance into the NE but an indication of the uncertainty ahead. However I suspect if the intensity modeling was correct it may have followed the Euro.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week will only possibly give a rain chance. Flow is not enough to bring something into SNE.

I’m with you. Doesn’t look conducive for a landfall. Thinking September/early October are for the southeast coast and Gulf though.

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Until I see a strong cut-off low in the Ohio Valley, I'll sell. 

I'd rather a pattern like '38..closed low over the western lakes, opening up to the ne against that high to the E. That way you don't see so much dry air entrainment with the storm above 30N. ;)

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there a specific place out there where you can see the upper level pattern in the days before historic landfalls? I should know this but I don’t.

Could be, but I'm more familiar with them from looking at post mortem papers about storms like Hazel and '38.

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I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? 

geometry.   That's all

If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... 

If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...)  the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs...  By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. 

Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way ;)

Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.    

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Cranky is awful with tropical weather forecasting, he is better with synoptic and winter seasonal as well as thunderstorm seasonal forecasting, Tropical Cyclone forecasting just isn't in his area of expertise.

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Usually I'd be all over if something was brewing for mid to late next week...

...but I'm going to the Cape for a vacation with some of our extended family... :yikes:

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