Amped Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Most models have the cutoff halfway up I270 somewhere between Gaithersburg and Urbana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 HRDerps happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Most models have the cutoff halfway up I270 somewhere between Gaithersburg and Urbana. Good for us right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, EB89 said: Good for us right? Yes even the NAM keeps Frederick all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Easy 8” up there3-5 for leesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8” would be my biggest snowfall of the season so I’ll abscond. In the end you always win. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Interesting that there’s a winter storm watch in Chestertown on the eastern shore...it’s literally due east across the bay from Dundalk/ESsex. I think their criteria is a little lower with 2-4 but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 For what little it is worth the long range HRRR has the mix line further south than any other guidance. I’m hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: Easy 8” up there 3-5 for leesburg? CWG calls for 2-5 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: For what little it is worth the long range HRRR has the mix line further south than any other guidance. I’m hugging it. Yeah I just saw. Hope this keeps up through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 UHI is going to be a factor with this storm. I know it was today. But I left Baltimore and 5PM and it was 45 dregees. When I got home it was 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: Easy 8” up there 3-5 for leesburg? Easy 5 inches. Most of your action will come up front but I bet you get a couple inches in the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: For what little it is worth the long range HRRR has the mix line further south than any other guidance. I’m hugging it. How far south? To CHO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 How far south? To CHO?It’s close. DC never rains verbatim. Couple select panels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night. But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 8” would be my biggest snowfall of the season so I’ll abscond. I’m still leaning 4-6” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, mappy said: I’m still leaning 4-6” here. I think you're good for 4-8". Probably 3-6" down my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night. But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Let's hope this storm produces and we can move on and pretend this winter never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: I think you're good for 4-8". Probably 3-6" down my way. Last I heard, the NWS had my area(Southeast Harford) under a Winter Weather Advisory, for 1-3". Has that been upgraded to a WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Ji said: The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384 Yeah, I'm not worried at all that far out. I'm mainly tracking its rain/snow line since that can give a decent signal on where it sets up. Tomorrow it should have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Danajames said: Last I heard, the NWS had my area(Southeast Harford) under a Winter Weather Advisory, for 1-3". Has that been upgraded to a WSW? Nope. If you're in Harford county then you want to be north and west of 95 for the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I gave up watching the HRRR during snowstorms, it's the best way to drive yourself crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, Fozz said: Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night. But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384 It’s that good?! I was thinking it was more like the CRAS at range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I gave up watching the HRRR during snowstorms, it's the best way to drive yourself crazy.Only thing worse is looking at radar...which shows the back end coming thru before the front end starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 CWG https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/02/wintry-mess-sunday-accumulating-snow-north-west-washington-sloppy-mix-around-town/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ea47fc30f8ef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Those maps from CWG are my favorite. And I get it. I would do the same thing. It’s just classic. The “boom” if we are wrong and “bust” if we are wrong maps are great. Just symbolizes life in the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Let's hope this storm produces and we can move on and pretend this winter never happened See you Monday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Those maps from CWG are my favorite. And I get it. I would do the same thing. It’s just classic. The “boom” if we are wrong and “bust” if we are wrong maps are great. Just symbolizes life in the 95 corridor. I just look at their main numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Anyone with the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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