• Member Statistics

    15,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    gotsnow
    Newest Member
    gotsnow
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I drive through southern Lanco for work.

Observing this morning, there must have been some sleet or rain as there was much less accumulation near border.


.

Yeah, I'm waiting to hear from Matt.  He went out at 2am to plow, and is a rather busy dude right now.  I was really happy to see no taint and when I came through Lanc to get to 222N it was snow from onset.  I'm happy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Guess I'm not sure where ya'll thought the big totals were coming from?  Personally I never believed them as we were initially concerned at how long it would take for column to cool w/o a good HP anchored in the NE, it was missing the big spark needed to get those totals?

Regardless, it was a great moderate event, and if that's the last appreciable event, oh well.  I may have blown my sled up anyway.

 

 

I agree 100%...hence why my call for my area was for 2" - 5". I was commenting this morning on what my ground truth was versus what models were showing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I didn't go back out and measure, but My brother in law next door said 4.5" 

perfect.  still can see the top of the beer can so you dont lose it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a great three days for March!   Yesterday I ended with 5.8 inches.  I had 3.5 Friday and 3 Saturday. My three day total 12.3 inches.  Just measured snow depth and it is between 8.5 and 9 inches.   The cold is setting in this week so we can actually enjoy it.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree 100%...hence why my call for my area was for 2" - 5". I was commenting this morning on what my ground truth was versus what models were showing. 

Yeah, I saw you post your concern and while I missed some of the background of why (viewing from afar), I thought something in between was a good call.  

 

We've had some fantastic discussion in here this year, and it was nice to see a few other weenies chiming in.  Took the load off my back a little this year :D.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, daxx said:

What a great three days for March!   Yesterday I ended with 5.8 inches.  I had 3.5 Friday and 3 Saturday. My three day total 12.3 inches.  Just measured snow depth and it is between 8.5 and 9 inches.   The cold is setting in this week so we can actually enjoy it.   

I'm tellin ya, its our 1 week deep winter.  Enjoy it pal.

I know I will.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

In fairness bud, you can pick a euro run that bounced around as well inside of 36.  Surely not arguing, but I just looked back at the GFS and NAM, and inside 24-36 i didnt see anything above 8 for the LSV.  To me, when the NAM shows 8" I know I'm not getting more than 6" w/ the best ratios, as we know its snowy bias.  Guess thats what I based my "happiness" off of.  Look back over the GFS

 

 

The Euro defintely bounced some.  It has not been that solid the year of 2019 in my opinion.  I think the NAM lead the way on this for the LSV but we do not all have to agree on that.  The GFS actually never showed 4-6" in Lancaster until the very last min if I am remembring correctly.  It and the RGEM were the model of choice for the MA DC people to get big snow.  For DC and Maryland the Euro and NAM told their fortune a week ahead of time.  I think another difference here is that you call the GFS Pappa G while I call it Goofus so we are both probably looked through our own colored opinions.  LOL.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree 100%...hence why my call for my area was for 2" - 5". I was commenting this morning on what my ground truth was versus what models were showing. 

My buds know where i get some info from, and saw the "biggies" and I told them..."aint happenin".  6" was my call from Friday night in for Lanco, and +/- we were close. 

Ground truth, I was happy to see totals that we did.  Antecedent cold was good...not great.  I wasnt so much worried about if it would snow, but more of how much with a marginally decent column. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The Euro defintely bounced some.  It has not been that solid the year of 2019 in my opinion.  I think the NAM lead the way on this for the LSV but we do not all have to agree on that.  The GFS actually never showed 4-6" in Lancaster until the very last min if I am remembring correctly.  It and the RGEM were the model of choice for the MA DC people to get big snow.  For DC and Maryland the Euro and NAM told their fortune a week ahead of time.  I think another difference here is that you call the GFS Pappa G while I call it Goofus so we are both probably looked through our own colored opinions.  LOL.  

oh....if you look over my posts of the last many years... GooFuS has been my go to, until by product of interbreeding, it spawned the Fv3  hence my renaming it Pappa G :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

oh....if you look over my posts of the last many years... GooFuS has been my go to, until by product of interbreeding, it spawned the Fv3 :P

LOL.  Since you mentioned the FV3, it was one of two main stream models showing over 8" (Friday and Saturday) in Lanco along with the CMC.  At one point on Saturday the CMC has 12-14" in Northern LANCO!  lol.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few pic's before the storm and during.  Looks around 5" or so.  The last 3 days were just amazing, loved getting snow on top of snow.  Maybe we can do 1 more.

IMG_2278.jpg

IMG_2273.jpg

IMG_2271.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

LOL.  Since you mentioned the FV3, it was one of two main stream models showing over 8" (Friday and Saturday) in Lanco along with the CMC.  At one point on Saturday the CMC has 12-14" in Northern LANCO!  lol.

 

 

 

 

Did you see why they are delaying Fv3 rollout?  Issues w/ cold and snowy bias.  Since I read that, i look at it for continuity in LP and 500 panels, and just peek at snow maps when I need to see perty colors.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, daxx said:

What a great three days for March!   Yesterday I ended with 5.8 inches.  I had 3.5 Friday and 3 Saturday. My three day total 12.3 inches.  Just measured snow depth and it is between 8.5 and 9 inches.   The cold is setting in this week so we can actually enjoy it.   

With me, retaining snowpack is almost as important as snow itself.   This next 5 day period might be the best all winter for that.    Plus someone might go below 0 if they maximize the snowcover and radiational cooling.    

My final was 5.9” from .57” liquid 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is just my opinion so here it is..models were pretty damn good.  We all got pretty close to what was modeled.  I know to us an inch or two here is huge but in reality that is not.  The warm layer in the upper levels surged a little further north and east which caused and icy structure to the flakes as you went further east in the lsv.  Take that out of the equation and we might have tacked on an inch or two more here in eastern part of the lsv. All said a great three days!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Porsche said:

A few pic's before the storm and during.  Looks around 5" or so.  The last 3 days were just amazing, loved getting snow on top of snow.  Maybe we can do 1 more.

IMG_2278.jpg

IMG_2273.jpg

IMG_2271.jpg

great pics !! thanks for sharing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah guys take the victory lol...we averaged less than an inch per storm.

I think my discussion is more about modeling and how to use it...we defintely scored down here.  I think the modeling did fairly well but parts of Lancaster ended up dealing with the same warm surge that NMD did causing less accum's.  There were places in NE MD that had 6-8 forecast and got no accumulation.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think my discussion is more about modeling and how to use it...we defintely scored down here.  I think the modeling did fairly well but parts of Lancaster ended up dealing with the same warm surge that NMD did causing less accum's.  There were places in NE MD that had 6-8 forecast and got no accumulation.  

And the fact the coastal cranked up a little bit faster keeping that deep convection that was targeted for our area (per the models) off shore. It helped SNE tremendously, lol.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think my discussion is more about modeling and how to use it...we defintely scored down here.  I think the modeling did fairly well but parts of Lancaster ended up dealing with the same warm surge that NMD did causing less accum's.  There were places in NE MD that had 6-8 forecast and got no accumulation.  

Wasn't referring to you bud, just in general. You do fine work here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


And the fact the coastal cranked up a little bit faster keeping that deep convection that was targeted for our area (per the models) off shore. It helped SNE tremendously, lol.


.

Yea and I think you were the one that caught that last night while happening.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't measure, but a co-op observer over in Mahanoy City, about 12 miles from my house on the other side of I-81, recorded 7 inches from this event. Eyeballing my own backyard, it looked like maybe about 3-5 inches here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, daxx said:

This is just my opinion so here it is..models were pretty damn good.  We all got pretty close to what was modeled.  I know to us an inch or two here is huge but in reality that is not.  The warm layer in the upper levels surged a little further north and east which caused and icy structure to the flakes as you went further east in the lsv.  Take that out of the equation and we might have tacked on an inch or two more here in eastern part of the lsv. All said a great three days!

It really was. Just under 11" for me since Thursday. I'm over climo for the winter. And I think we get more....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think my discussion is more about modeling and how to use it...we defintely scored down here.  I think the modeling did fairly well but parts of Lancaster ended up dealing with the same warm surge that NMD did causing less accum's.  There were places in NE MD that had 6-8 forecast and got no accumulation.  

And thats where the next level of the hobbyist comes in that we just dont look at models, but also incorporate climo, and model biases blah blah blah. 

Someone posted earlier about how "we" (and i use that term loosely, as i include my amateur self in it)....have become model watchers and not forecasters.  Thats not a pointed statement, but just generalization... and feel that its partly true sometimes.  Its easy to get sucked in and wanna believe - we all do it.  I know i've been guilty at times. 

Models have greatly improved (even despite this challenging winter that we are soon done with), but there are still other factors/forcing mechanisms that need taken into consideration.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And thats where the next level of the hobbyist comes in that we just dont look at models, but also incorporate climo, and model biases blah blah blah. 

Someone posted earlier about how "we" (and i use that term loosely, as i include my amateur self in it)....have become model watchers and not forecasters.  Thats not a pointed statement, but just generalization... and feel that its partly true sometimes.  Its easy to get sucked in and wanna believe - we all do it.  I know i've been guilty at times. 

Models have greatly improved (even despite this challenging winter that we are soon done with), but there are still other factors/forcing mechanisms that need taken into consideration.  

This is all so, so true...

Do models take into account situations like yesterday when we had 3+ hours of light to moderate snow with NO accumulation? I was thinking about that this morning...how much would we have gotten if the storm would have moved in at 6pm and snowed until 6am this morning? 

Honestly, truly i probably lost at least 2" yesterday afternoon to "white rain." 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4.5 1st event, 2.5 second, and 6.25 from yesterday, with melting and compaction I have around 9 inches of snow left as of this morning at 7am. Couple miles NW of Elizabethtown. Finally a cold week to enjoy it. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And thats where the next level of the hobbyist comes in that we just dont look at models, but also incorporate climo, and model biases blah blah blah. 

Someone posted earlier about how "we" (and i use that term loosely, as i include my amateur self in it)....have become model watchers and not forecasters.  Thats not a pointed statement, but just generalization... and feel that its partly true sometimes.  Its easy to get sucked in and wanna believe - we all do it.  I know i've been guilty at times. 

Models have greatly improved (even despite this challenging winter that we are soon done with), but there are still other factors/forcing mechanisms that need taken into consideration.  

You mentioned bias and that is a sticking point with me.  I think many model biaes are rumors that spread on boards like these are not based in reality.  The FV3 over amps systems is a legit bias. The Nam at 84 hours is "out of range" is not in my opinion.  Here is an offical NWS list of known biases.  Not sure if this is the only one.   If you check out this list it looks like they are picking on the GFS but it has also been around a long time. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#NAM

 

Speaking of the NAM at 84, it is already on top of our Friday snow :-). 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

i can't even recall. I don't mind shoveling, but damn these last 3 events I've had to dig my way out of my driveway. The chit the plow truck leaves behind has been like an ice jam. I said to my wife i wondered if our township was using a different kind of rock salt or something. I have never had this issue before. 

Tuesday-Thursday lows are going to be chilly

@canderson had asked about it the other day - there are a number of times that MDT reported more than a trace and even more than an inch for 3 straight days but based on time used to make those reports I am not sure that many of those are from 3 separate systems. 

January 24-27 2004 and February 15-18 2003 had 4 straight days of at least 1"

As someone else pointed out last night - their totals for the last 3 days are suspicious.   They are currently reporting 4.2" for the 1st with .42" liquid, 1.2" for the 2nd with .24" liquid, and 6.8" for yesterday with .69" liquid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.