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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So...apparently the 12z Euro today was showing somethin' cookin' at the end of it's run. (time period matches the FV3)

I don't have access to full Euro ensembles but I do have the Euro control run that goes out to 360. It does have an event in that range, kind of a weaker miller-B type deal with some snow in PA and probably marginal thermals in DC. So yea, it had something.. but not the 3-5 feet the FV3 served up lol. 18z FV3 still has a pretty big storm. 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, I saw they were close in time, so thats a good start.  Pappa G had something brewin yesterday at that timeframe.  

edit....18z pappa G is goin all happy hour on us at same period 

Its amusing that were getting cranked up over 264 hour storms on Op runs, but what the heck.  Period is looking good and storms are popping up.  Hopefully by the weekend we see legit threats starting to get inside 7 or 8 days.  and sorry, but no more cutter crap. I want a clean powder keg.

It's time. And then when @Blizzard of 93 posts those pretty colored snow maps they'll actually all be snow! 

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hello !

Awesome stuff today folks!

I’m looking forward to posting lots of maps over the next couple of weeks !

Our best storm is yet to come this season!

On wgal tonight Joe Calhoun normally pretty conservative was saying that the ingredients were coming together for a storm if not next weekend then the start of the week after. Could be he is referring to the storm showing up in the long range. If as everyone has been saying everything is coming together perhaps it is our time. I think someone said March could be the new February. 

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1 hour ago, Festus said:

- High Wind Watch up for Sunday into Monday.

- Up to 11 hours now between sunrise and sunset.

- Turn clocks ahead in a little over 2 weeks.

- Yard is half snow, half grass.  Methinks snow is gone by Sunday.

Not sure I remember the last time we were under a HWW for 2 days...

 

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I know.  That blows.

 

 

:)

I just don't have a good comeback for that. lol

One concern I have in the coming weeks is the sheer number of systems being modeled. I just hope they don't cause interference with each other and muck something up. I kinda remember that happening a few times previously where there just wasn't enough space/distance for one discreet wave to blow up. That, and we're still largely in a progressive pattern. 

Thoughts? 

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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I just don't have a good comeback for that. lol

One concern I have in the coming weeks is the sheer number of systems being modeled. I just hope they don't cause interference with each other and muck something up. I kinda remember that happening a few times previously where there just wasn't enough space/distance for one discreet wave to blow up. That, and we're still largely in a progressive pattern. 

Thoughts? 

We are entering a time when wavelengths naturally shorten as we approach spring, so while we may lose some potential with a big blown up system, you can also play the odds at getting a decent hit if there's enough shit in the chute.  Just another perspective.  Im an odds guy, but yeah i want a hum dinger for sure.

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

We are entering a time when wavelengths naturally shorten as we approach spring, so while we may lose some potential with a big blown up system, you can also play the odds at getting a decent hit if there's enough shit in the chute.  Just another perspective.  Im an odds guy, but yeah i want a hum dinger for sure.

and to add to this, If we can get any semblance of blocking, it COULD help to "slow the flow" and give shortwaves time to dig. Right now, tellies are not indicative of that, but as we get into next week and beyond, if one believes the ensembles, then we do look to morph into a workable pattern and all seem to show some continuity.  That makes me feel better about where we are heading.  

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Yesterday Flagstaff, Arizona, had 35.9” snow!

@Voyager aren’t you headed there this weekend? Lol

Actually, I'm going to Phoenix, but they had 3 inches in North Scottsdale, and the close-in Valley mountains (White Tanks, Estrellas, etc) got snow overnight into this morning as snow levels were down to around 2,000ft, which is pretty low for out there.

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29 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Smart posters...what's deal with wind coming up? Seems like they really are pushing it's severity early and often.

My tag does not say "Smart Poster" and I am not totally sure of each models bias toward properly gauging wind speed but here is the panel of the  12Z GFS showing the max wind speeds for Eastern PA.  Does not really jump out at me as being much different than the other half dozen wind events this season.   My specific location has high winds quite frequently and a local WUnderground anemometer has recorded over 65 MPH gusts 3 times since the start of the year so not sure this is much different.  These winds are in knots but the conversion to MPH only adds 3-4 on to these sustained predictions. 

image.thumb.png.91223a8d67eff5cc996ba6dee58336d1.png

 

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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sunday afternoon we have to drive across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge - I should buy a GoPro for prosperity. 

That might be the most difficult 4.5 miles of driving you've done in your life yet. 

I drove across it once when I was 18...I was heading from an O's game over to Rehoboth to join my family on vacation. Got to the bridge just minutes before a severe thunderstorm hit. I was extremely naive at the time and didn't realize how horrible that trip would have been if i was 5 minutes later. 

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