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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.

I would say it because the Nam's depiction is mostly light to moderate with not much forcing to add to rates.  12 hours of snow and snow maps only show 3-7" which means 1/2" hr rates....so a strung out period of light to moderate snow.  If you look at the 3K Nam snow map you will see a lit of purple stripes where all the ridges are which is the model suggesting elevation event. 

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.

It is a 10-12 hour event with .3-.5 qpf across most of the southern half of the state. Given marginal temp profiles, time of year, and not great rates, that could lead to a lot of issues with snow accumulating. 

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.

Somebody is going to get a decent hit. As per this season just a few pieces missing for a much bigger storm.

6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

One good thing is that a good bit of the snow comes late and after sundown.  It has gone back again from a 15 hour event to more of a 10-12 hour one.

I thought that this was modeled as a quick mover.

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1 minute ago, pawatch said:

Somebody is going to get a decent hit. As per this season just a few pieces missing for a much bigger storm.

I thought that this was modeled as a quick mover.

It was a few days ago but had gone to as long as a 15 hour event yesterday...just taking its time strolling over us with less than heavy snow.  

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Whatever it is 2,3, or 6 it is snow in March. Cold next week winter isn’t going away. 

I feel ya.   7+ days with snow cover and several storms to track is great.  Soon enough spring will hit, and this forum will go into hibernation until fall so let’s enjoy this period instead of worrying 

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38 minutes ago, Ruin said:

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.

I agree with you 100 %

There is a 6 inch snow storm on the way for at least the LSV tomorrow.

While I would love a foot plus event like most of us, I will take this event tomorrow all day. 

MDT after tomorrow will be well above normal snow & near 40 inches for the season.

Also, when was the last time that we had 3 separate accumulating snows with 4 days?

What I am trying to say is that we should enjoy this memorable stretch of winter!

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree with you 100 %

There is a 6 inch snow storm on the way for at least the LSV tomorrow.

While I would love a foot plus event like most of us, I will take this event tomorrow all day. 

MDT after tomorrow will be well above normal snow & near 40 inches for the season.

Also, when was the last time that we had 3 separate accumulating snows with 4 days?

What I am trying to say is that we should enjoy this memorable stretch of winter!

Right on.   I have a chance for 12” of snow in 4 days.   This is why I love the weather 

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24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I feel ya.   7+ days with snow cover and several storms to track is great.  Soon enough spring will hit, and this forum will go into hibernation until fall so let’s enjoy this period instead of worrying 

And that's what I hate. There is more to weather than just snow. Try to start a discussion about thunderstorms and tropical systems, and it's mostly crickets in here...

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And that's what I hate. There is more to weather than just snow. Try to start a discussion about thunderstorms and tropical systems, and it's mostly crickets in here...

I do like tracking severe storms and hurricanes.

Hurricanes can do so much damage and cause pain and suffering it is tough to “root” for a big storm.

Severe weather is hit or miss, so not as much tracking. And again “rooting” for severe weather is tough because people can die.


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I melted down my 3.0" of snowfall from overnight and once again got a perfect 10:1 ratio with 0.30" of liquid.  The weird thing is that both nights were 10:1 snow but last night's was way wetter than Thursday night's.  I don't get that.

I'm sure this will change but this morning's 12Z HRRR (which ends at 0Z tomorrow evening) starts the storm as rain early tomorrow afternoon and for portions of the LSV keeps it rain until sunset.  I think it has to do with precip rates in which it doesn't show the rain changing to snow until rates ramp up later in the afternoon.

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I melted down my 3.0" of snowfall from overnight and once again got a perfect 10:1 ratio with 0.30" of liquid.  The weird thing is that both nights were 10:1 snow but last night's was way wetter than Thursday night's.  I don't get that.

I'm sure this will change but this morning's 12Z HRRR (which ends at 0Z tomorrow evening) starts the storm as rain early tomorrow afternoon and for portions of the LSV keeps it rain until sunset.  I think it has to do with precip rates in which it doesn't show the rain changing to snow until rates ramp up later in the afternoon.

Yeah same here with last 2 events.  Almost copies of each other.  

On TWC this morn, they had a video of someone driving through Carlisle under two rows of trees.   It looked wintry with snow caked on the trees.  Was that you cruising the city:scooter:

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3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah same here with last 2 events.  Almost copies of each other.  

On TWC this morn, they had a video of someone driving through Carlisle under two rows of trees.   It looked wintry with snow caked on the trees.  Was that you cruising the city:scooter:

LOL...Nope.  I'm still sitting here in my pj's with my laptop relaxing.  I'm hoping to let the insolation do its dirty work on my car and sidewalk so I don't have much to shovel!  Temp has risen to 36.7 so there is melting going on now.

It did look very beautiful here when I got up though.  I love seeing everything covered in snow and sticking to everything.

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54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree with you 100 %

There is a 6 inch snow storm on the way for at least the LSV tomorrow.

While I would love a foot plus event like most of us, I will take this event tomorrow all day. 

MDT after tomorrow will be well above normal snow & near 40 inches for the season.

Also, when was the last time that we had 3 separate accumulating snows with 4 days?

What I am trying to say is that we should enjoy this memorable stretch of winter!

the only thing that comes close Is 2011 if memory serves we had the back to back blizzards that year. one was like on a sun night-tuesday morning i think and the next one was late thursday into sat. all the weather guys around here were like not buying 2 blizzards back to back it just doesnt happen. well they all had egg on faces after that week.

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

the only thing that comes close Is 2011 if memory serves we had the back to back blizzards that year. one was like on a sun night-tuesday morning i think and the next one was late thursday into sat. all the weather guys around here were like not buying 2 blizzards back to back it just doesnt happen. well they all had egg on faces after that week.

It was first week of Feb 2010.  I got 27" from storm 1 followed by 13" storm 2 for 40" in less than 5 days.  Not expecting to ever see that again in my lifetime...lol.

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I melted down my 3.0" of snowfall from overnight and once again got a perfect 10:1 ratio with 0.30" of liquid.  The weird thing is that both nights were 10:1 snow but last night's was way wetter than Thursday night's.  I don't get that.
I'm sure this will change but this morning's 12Z HRRR (which ends at 0Z tomorrow evening) starts the storm as rain early tomorrow afternoon and for portions of the LSV keeps it rain until sunset.  I think it has to do with precip rates in which it doesn't show the rain changing to snow until rates ramp up later in the afternoon.

I thought the dendrites were bigger in the 2nd event and they stacked higher.


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