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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My fear out here is wasting the heavier rates before sunset.   I believe Lanco County jackpots with the best rates after dark.   Lastest Euro still targets that area with best qpf

I'm glad it's not coming at noon, that's for sure.

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8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My fear out here is wasting the heavier rates before sunset.   I believe Lanco County jackpots with the best rates after dark.   Lastest Euro still targets that area with best qpf

True. It's a catch-22. Best rates after dark in eastern zones, BUT also spots to be warmest that need to be cooled the most. Heck, it's 36 already at LNS. 

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17 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My fear out here is wasting the heavier rates before sunset.   I believe Lanco County jackpots with the best rates after dark.   Lastest Euro still targets that area with best 

I did not do a forecast for the board but I had I would have put you and I at 6 to 8.  Eastern and southern Lanco 8 to 10.  Everything I have seen shows us missing the very best of the rates that slobberknock far SE PA and NE MD.  I think rates Lanco overcome surface Temps.  That observer in Upper Strausberg  may have to take a storm off being number one (or even in the top 50 perrcent)

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

I did not do a forecast for the board but I had I would have put you and I at 6 to 8.  Eastern and southern Lanco 8 to 10.  Everything I have seen shows us missing the very best of the rates that slobberknock far SE PA and NE MD.  I think rates Lanco overcome surface Temps.  That observer in upper strausberg may have to take a Strom off being number one (or even in the top 50 perrcent)

Nice Call.   Upper Strasburg had a 11” snow depth on coop report yesterday morn.    I’d like to hit 6.3” for this one to put me at 50” std, but my gut tells me this is a 4-5” event for us 

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Dew points have been slowly dropping since late yesterday & are now in the Lower 20’s for most. Surface temps are in low to mid 30’s. When Precip begins, temps will cool. We also have had snow on the ground since Thursday night, so the ground is cold. We are not coming off of some torch pattern, so surfaces should be ready to pile up snow.

Most of the best precip is coming in the late afternoon & this evening. We should get decent rates transitioning to very good rates as the sun goes down.

In the words of @Jebman, I  think that we are going to get shellacked with snow!

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hello @psuhoffman & @showmethesnow

What are your thoughts on the storm today for southern PA & the LSV ?

I saw PSU post a map yesterday, & was curious what it would look like for the rest of southern PA.

Liked PSU's map for the most part around the PA line. Won't really speak for up towards central PA because I am not so familiar with the climo. But for the southern counties (Adams and eastward) I think we might be looking at more a 8-10 type deal especially towards the MD line. Towards Philly and SE PA needs to keep an eye out for the coastal low ramping up a little stronger then projected to get some good CCB action. See that and I would not be surprised if we see 12+ through that local.

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It’s just great that many of us should be near 40 inches of snow for the season by the end of tonight!

Not bad for such a terrible winter according to some folks that declared winter over in mid January!

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Liked PSU's map for the most part around the PA line. Won't really speak for up towards central PA because I am not so familiar with the climo. But for the southern counties (Adams and eastward) I think we might be looking at more a 8-10 type deal especially towards the MD line. Towards Philly and SE PA needs to keep an eye our for the coastal low ramping up a little stronger to get some good CCB action. See that and I would not be surprised if we see 12+ through that local.

Thanks !

Hopefully we can hear more of your thoughts later on for this event.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks !

Hopefully we can hear more of your thoughts later on for this event.

We'll see. Wife will be dragging me out of the house shortly. 

Paleolady | Stories from a Paleo lifestyle

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We'll see. Wife will be dragging me out of the house shortly. 

Paleolady | Stories from a Paleo lifestyle

That is what my wife did to me after waiting up for the 0Z Euro Tuesday Night (or really Wed Am). To quote her..."that stupid weather board".

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10-1 on the 12Z Nam.  Continues to really play up the forcing that develops in SE PA then spreads to cover much of far S Central PA.  Rippage type snow.   8-10 really sounds good for Southern York and Lancastser as long as you can stay on the right side of the line.  Lollipos of a foot. 

image.png.c9b6ea920eeff783508edd326ae7092b.png

 

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A pic of the banding setting up for southern  and East Central PA.   Radar may even take a traditional coastal look to at this point with returns blossoming in from the S/E instead of West.  

image.png.494c0425e38dc7e23b8de278f8507d54.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

A pic of the banding setting up for southern  and East Central PA.   Radar may even take a traditional coastal look to at this point with returns blossoming in from the S/E instead of West.  

image.png.494c0425e38dc7e23b8de278f8507d54.png

 

 

Nice. 

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10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

10-1 on the 12Z Nam.  Continues to really play up the forcing that develops in SE PA then spreads to cover much of far S Central PA.  Rippage type snow.   8-10 really sounds good for Southern York and Lancastser as long as you can stay on the right side of the line.  Lollipos of a foot. 

image.png.c9b6ea920eeff783508edd326ae7092b.png

 

The High Res 12z 3k NAM agrees!

9C187DDF-0AA7-40CB-9B7A-72E52921C1C9.png

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7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

A pic of the banding setting up for southern  and East Central PA.   Radar may even take a traditional coastal look to at this point with returns blossoming in from the S/E instead of West.  

image.png.494c0425e38dc7e23b8de278f8507d54.png

 

 

it would be nice if we got some classic wrap around to tho I dont think we will get much of a negative tilt.

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

it would be nice if we got some classic wrap around to tho I dont think we will get much of a negative tilt.

I agree, it is not going negative....progrssive and flying by.  Going ENE so any wrap around will fly out of the state quickly so it would be minor.  Storm deepens into the 980's east of New England! 

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NAM looks great. Good luck to all today.

Could be biggest of season for us in Lanco.

Love the banded features and convective nature of system.

Should be fun this evening.


.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great analysis guys...seriously, you are all giving pause to some of my concerns. I'm sitting at 37 right now and just concerned I guess for obvious reasons.

I think the R/S line does get near or over you but isn't that the place to be?  If you want to see the action of a ground war you have to be at the front line.   LOL.  @pasnownut might have to finish the end of his ride home on his snowmobile. 

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This little bit of overrunning is going to help us stay cool thanks to less insolation/more wet-bulbing. Despite starting a bit milder than guidance, it may all even out in the wash as the main batch moves in. HRRR looks like it's catching up to this idea. Giddy up.

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