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StormChaser4Life

Feb 19-20th winter storm

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I haven't started a thread in ages so sure why not. Hopefully I won't be a storm killer. Models consistently showing a pretty moisture laden system mid-week with a mixed bag of precip. The main surface system stays pretty south but an inverted trough extends far north and provides a focus for a quick hitting intense burst of wintry precip

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Looks like another good event for Iowa. Kinda similar today with a heavy burst for a few hours. 

Havent looked too far in depth but the NAM soundings were even better than today with a deeper DGZ and better lift throughout. 

DMX already going with 4-6” 

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Still a ways away, but it looks like it should be mostly snow for a good chunk of the DVN cwa.  Looks like a quick mover, so amounts may be a little tempered.  Looks like 2-4" potential for the QCA if we can keep it all snow.  If we can get it to slow down a bit maybe it would be more of a 3-5" type event.  All in all nothing too exciting, but could act to stat pad the already very impressive season.

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Trending nicely for a solid 3-5" here, maybe more as we've tended to over achieve as of late with some help from high ratios. Backyard snowpack has compacted down to around a foot, will be a nice refresh.

3.9" for MSP to tie its snowiest February. I'll take the over.

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A substantial increase in precip for the QCA on the new Euro.  Now shows around 0.4" of precip, which is a big jump from the 0.25" it's been forecasting for several cycles.  UK is even more aggressive with over 0.6" precip.  If this trend holds it's looking like a nice 4-5" event is on the way, and this time the snow will be more wet compared to the fluffy stuff yesterday.  

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

A substantial increase in precip for the QCA on the new Euro.  Now shows around 0.4" of precip, which is a big jump from the 0.25" it's been forecasting for several cycles.  UK is even more aggressive with over 0.6" precip.  If this trend holds it's looking like a nice 4-5" event is on the way, and this time the snow will be more wet compared to the fluffy stuff yesterday.  

Wednesday morning may feature some pretty decent snowfall rates. Here in the QC we go from just trace amounts around midnight, to around 5 inches between midnight-6am w/ an additional inch or so after sunrise per the 00z Euro. 

liq.png

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Now they have really upped the totals. At least it won't be very windy this storm. Winter Storm Warnings are now being issued.

StormTotalSnowWeb_Minnesota.thumb.png.9c8bd2c0d0f1c462a2913828358e2f80.png

Quote

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for much of east central
through southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin starting tonight
and continuing through Wednesday evening. The Warning is along and
south of a line from Rush City to Saint Cloud to Litchfield to
Granite Falls and Canby. This includes all of west central
Wisconsin, all of the Twin Cities metro and all of the Mankato
area, along with Interstate 35 south of Rush City, Interstate 94
between Saint Cloud and Eau Claire, and the Interstate 90
corridor. Total snowfall accumulations of 6 to 9 inches can be
expected within the Warning area, some snow heavy at times,
particularly during the Wednesday morning rush. Snowfall is
expected to continue much of the day on Wednesday, potentially
with rates around 1 inch per hour. Snowfall will diminish
Wednesday afternoon and evening but still impacting the evening
rush.

 

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1 hour ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Now they have really upped the totals. At least it won't be very windy this storm. Winter Storm Warnings are now being issued.

StormTotalSnowWeb_Minnesota.thumb.png.9c8bd2c0d0f1c462a2913828358e2f80.png

 

Yeah this is really trending in our direction quickly, definitely was surprised to see WSW hoisted when I woke up this morning. Unfortunately I’ll be out of town in Courtland MN for work through Thursday. 

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Interested to see how the front end thump plays out in the Ohio Valley, given the bad track for that area.  It looks pretty respectable on some models.

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Here is what I posted to our EMA Facebook page for our area:

The weather will be a sloppy mess from 3 AM through Noon tomorrow in Huntington County. The timeline is what the consensus of weather models depicts for precipitation. We will see:

• Snow – around 2”
• Sleet – A trace
• Freezing rain – 0.10” – 0.15”
• Rain – 0.10”

The exact times of the transitions are an estimation and any deviation in those times will affect exact amounts. However, it is safe to say that we will receive the gamut of precipitation types. Give yourself extra time during the morning commute.

 

 

Wx 22019.png

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18z models continuing to shift north and have really begun to remove us from the heaviest swath of snow at this point. I don’t think we are at all at risk for a 0 cirrus or anything but it’s not looking as hot now here

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24 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

18z models continuing to shift north and have really begun to remove us from the heaviest swath of snow at this point. I don’t think we are at all at risk for a 0 cirrus or anything but it’s not looking as hot now here

Yeah, a few models are trying to pull the rug out from under parts of southern/eastern Iowa.  Other models are holding firm with solid totals.  There should be more agreement considering it's about to start.

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As has been mentioned the WAA thump in IN/OH will be interesting.  This is not unheard of in these parts but is pretty uncommon...

The temp profiles would warm quickly enough to preclude much accumulation if not for wet bulbing/dynamic cooling.  The dynamics are impressive (especially as you head east into OH) with very strong upper-level divergence in the right entrance quad of a strong jet streak, a deep layer of strong isentropic lift on a 70-80 kt LLJ, a tight thermal gradient/strong fgen, high PWATs advecting in and steep lapse rates above the mid-level warm nose providing for borderline convective instability.  This will combat the change to rain for a time and allow for heavy rates while it's snowing.  This has some similarities to the November front end thump on the East Coast that was wildly underpredicted by humans (though modeled embarrassingly well) but is toned down a tad (it produced a widespread 6-12")...I think some 6" lollis are doable in the heaviest band into OH and it will fall in a short time.

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4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Here is what I posted to our EMA Facebook page for our area:

The weather will be a sloppy mess from 3 AM through Noon tomorrow in Huntington County. The timeline is what the consensus of weather models depicts for precipitation. We will see:

• Snow – around 2”
• Sleet – A trace
• Freezing rain – 0.10” – 0.15”
• Rain – 0.10”

The exact times of the transitions are an estimation and any deviation in those times will affect exact amounts. However, it is safe to say that we will receive the gamut of precipitation types. Give yourself extra time during the morning commute.

 

 

Wx 22019.png

Bass ackwards I tell ya lol.

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6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a 1-3" event for much of the LOT CWA.

Gonna cut this back to a DAB to 2" area wide.

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twin cities bet payouts would most likely look like the following for this system, at least according to how I see it...

 

  • > 4" pays
  • > 6" pays
  • > 8" , 3-2
  • >10" , 7-2

the heaviest part of the snow falls 7a-1p (13Z-19Z). but I don't like some of the messaging up here with several of the TV mets splitting the snow 1/2 morning and 1/2 afternoon, not say a 2/3 - 1/3 type of split, which is looking like the much more probable scenario up here.  hope some of the messaging changes soon up here.

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