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Baroclinic Zone

Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

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I wonder if we see a tuck as well late tomorrow night. I'm having a little trouble seeing SNH warm as much as guidance has, especially with that high location. 

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Secondary just doesn't get stronger ... it'd cut off that 700 mbar elevated WCB fold it back into a trowal ...that would be a fun bust

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if we see a tuck as well late tomorrow night. I'm having a little trouble seeing SNH warm as much as guidance has, especially with that high location. 

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

 

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

 

 

 

 

Feb11_sfc10pm.gif

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Think that's a slam dunk guys…but it's also possible that we don't tuck because there's no real reason to slosh back cuz just being underestimated in the bottom layer all along with more ageo

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

 

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

 

 

 

 

Feb11_sfc10pm.gif

Yeah. It's different from the last event when we lost the drain. Should have a decent drain with that high north of maine. It will be torched above 950, but I feel like some of that cold will slosh into central and NE MA Monday morning. At least that's what past experience says. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...pretty close on that. Almost has Mitch pinging while the Cape is still snowing.

 

This is still one of my favorite sfc maps:

 

 

Dec16-sfcMap-7am.gif

all time classic

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heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

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1 minute ago, Organizing Low said:

heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

The biggest bust in this storm I think is going to be surface temps over interior SNE.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest bust in this storm I think is going to be surface temps over interior SNE.

Agreed with that. 

HREF pretty torchy in mid levels. 

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20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Upton likes the ice threat in ct.. they think some places could see up to 0.4

0.6 here last February, didn't do any damage

 

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8 minutes ago, Organizing Low said:

heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England

Poorly timed snowfall forecast. Lots of people caught on the roads if I remember correctly. Snow came in like a wall.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS a bit warmer aloft, but still stubborn. 

Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol.

NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z.

 

RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels.

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England

Solid SWFE.   12-18" up in BTV area with no sleet and a big 6-12" in the NE half of SNE.

Large SNE gradient from SW to NE.  Tolland scalping while +SN at BOS.

IMG_2220.thumb.JPG.eaf1386daae12bc8c57216f70d0045da.JPG

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Poorly timed snowfall forecast. Lots of people caught on the roads if I remember correctly. Snow came in like a wall.

Oh...duh...the gridlock storm?   If so, then yeah,  very memorable.  Awesome, if not huge, just due to the timing

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Oh...duh...the gridlock storm?   If so, then yeah,  very memorable.  Awesome, if not huge, just due to the timing

No, it wasn't that storm....that was 12/13/07 just a few days earlier....12/16/07 was on a Sunday morning.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol.

NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z.

 

RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels.

Wonder if we can get some low level flake generation too. I feel like the last few times I thought it may happen, it did not occur..but with such cold below 900..maybe they can generate crap flakes with the sleet and add an inch or so. 

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Man that 3km NAM is even warmer than before.  

Has about 0.2" QPF as sleet here now, and 1.0" as snow.  

Quite the model battle.

IMG_2219.PNG.a191ba63422585955d18be50bac6c0c7.PNG

IMG_2221.PNG.ecd6e0ba10dc4e3a00b45d519f0c3322.PNG

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No, it wasn't that storm....that was 12/13/07 just a few days earlier....12/16/07 was on a Sunday morning.

Ok.  That makes more sense, but it seemed like the Sunday event was fairly routine in SNE

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ok.  That makes more sense, but it seemed like the Sunday event was fairly routine in SNE

It was notable for the positive bust....most were under a WWA for 2-4/3-5....and 8-10 fell north of the pike.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It was notable for the positive bust....most were under a WWA for 2-4/3-5....and 8-10 fell north of the pike.

Well...that sure isn’t happening...

I’ve gained a new respect for the NAM thermal profiles this winter...maybe just the type of systems that we have gotten. 

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Nam says I get zero, GFS says I get 4.   The difference between those for someone starved of winter is massive. I'm hoping the forecast of 2 inches is right, but I wouldn't be surprised if the thump was limp and I quickly got flipped off.  

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

It is a frigid air mass.  

I'm down to 1F and MVL says 0/-4.  

Bodes well for you guys down south at the SFC.

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