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Frog Town

Overrunning Set-Up/Ice Storm 2/5-2/8

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The Tue-early Wed part may produce a band of high end advisory or warning criteria ice amounts, even accounting for some of the precip not accreting/running off.  Globals remain considerably farther north than the NAM with that.

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4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

A once in 100 year storm?  Yeah, pretty unlikely.

March 2016 wont be remembered compared to how widespread Dec 2013 was, but we had up to 2" of ice around orangeville. It was phenomenal to witness 

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11 hours ago, on_wx said:

March 2016 wont be remembered compared to how widespread Dec 2013 was, but we had up to 2" of ice around orangeville. It was phenomenal to witness 

I sort of recall that one (It was Easter weekend, right?).  Decent icing down here too, but nothing of that magnitude. 

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Models are sort of messy with handling these waves even though the general track corridor seems to be coming into focus.  I'll take the FV3 lol

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models are sort of messy with handling these waves even though the general track corridor seems to be coming into focus.  I'll take the FV3 lol

Me too, please!

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7 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I sort of recall that one (It was Easter weekend, right?).  Decent icing down here too, but nothing of that magnitude. 

Line 86 really separated the high ice accretion to almost nothing. I drove up to dufferin county that night to be at ground zero and went from just a glaze in Waterloo to widespread outages and trees down starting at elmira. Seeing fergus at 10pm or so was an experience. Someone on twitter said the town looked like an EF2 tornado had hit and they were right.

I got stuck on a county road off 109 and got help by an OPP officer. After that, I spent the night in grand valley and it was wicked. Continuous crashing all night from trees breaking. The next day was an icy winter wonderland. Would have been a catastrophic ice storm if it got down to kw/guelph/west GTA.

There was almost no wind so damage was minimal. Though, when you drive from belwood lake to orangeville ,especially now with no leaf cover, all the trees are bent and drooping.

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25 minutes ago, Baum said:

ice storm?

This could be one of the better ice setups in much of Chicago metro in a while, but there are some ways to "fail."

One, does more of the Tue-Wed morning precip end up being snow/sleet?  If not, ice accumulation could be decent.

Two, how much of a warmup happens on Wednesday to melt off?  With north/east surface winds, I don't buy a large diurnal recovery north of the front, assuming it stays cloudy.

Three, what kind of track does the wave later Wed-Thu take?  If that round is ice, then the totals could add up by the time it's done (especially if little/no melting on Wed).

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There looks to be the potential for some heavier/convective elements embedded in the precip shield Tue into Wed.  Mid level lapse rates are fairly steep.  This could result in some swaths of locally heavier ice accretion within the larger area, but temps will play a role in that because it's hard to accrete efficiently during heavy rates when temps are near freezing.

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2019020400_NAM_057_42.34,-83.33_severe_m

Pretty classic freezing rain sounding. I already did one ice storm with temps in the mid 20s and that was a pain in the neck to deal with. Don't want another one.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

There looks to be the potential for some heavier/convective elements embedded in the precip shield Tue into Wed.  Mid level lapse rates are fairly steep.  This could result in some swaths of locally heavier ice accretion within the larger area, but temps will play a role in that because it's hard to accrete efficiently during heavy rates when temps are near freezing.

The presence of CAPE on some guidance suggest TSFZRA being quite possible.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

The presence of CAPE on some guidance suggest TSFZRA being quite possible.

Agreed, the simulated reflectivity on the NAM3k looks convective as hell.

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Tue-Wed looks fairly good, and I could see an axis of ≥0.25" ice accrual across portions of the area.

Wed-Fri is much more iffy...Could be snow, ice or rain.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The presence of CAPE on some guidance suggest TSFZRA being quite possible.

Agree.  Have actually observed that twice.  I could go for a third time lol

A bit of a tricky call on how much plain rain vs freezing here though as a bunch of guidance tries to poke temps just above freezing during the precip.  I think I'll get ice but it's a question of how much.  Any heavier precip where temps are marginal could even cause temps to bounce up just above freezing via latent heat.

 

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36 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12Z models continue to warm for Wednesday night Thursday event. 

Indeed "warmer" and north.

If that trend continues, likely can write this one off for much of the area.

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For tomorrow night, it looks like most of the surface warming being modeled around here is due to waa aloft.  Even down to within a couple thousand feet above ground gets pretty torchy.  Question will be how long the surface can hang on to temps aob freezing with the assault from above so to speak.

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See LOT already posted an advisory for tomorrow night. Shame the second storm didn't pan out to at least keep the week interesting. After having nearly non stop tracking for 3 weeks I need my fix.....

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58 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Since snow is obviously off the table with this, I'm hoping for a decent period of sleet later tomorrow before it changes to frz rain.  Haven't seen much sleet the past few years.  Kind of miss it lol.  

Looks like a nice rainer with the next wave 

Miss sleet?  Seriously?  :lol:

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46 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Since snow is obviously off the table with this, I'm hoping for a decent period of sleet later tomorrow before it changes to frz rain.  Haven't seen much sleet the past few years.  Kind of miss it lol.  

Looks like a nice rainer with the next wave 

Take a ride with Hoosier to LAF.  It's a guarantee when he's in town lol.:sled:

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