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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Gradient is a dirty word. 

Depends on where you live.  I hear Ottawa is crushing it.

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What a joke. 1980s for weeks.


Love Scooters attitude. His newfound anger is going to deliver us a good couple weeks finally !
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5 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 


Love Scooters attitude. His newfound anger is going to deliver us a good couple weeks finally !

 

I wish I could go through winter with Snow88 eyes.

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6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

6z EPS yesterday sniffed this out . Snowpack survives!

ASOUT 

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Whatever happens happens. 75% of winter gone. We towel.

Could have sworn,  matter of fact, I know, you have always been a big storm guy not a pack guy.  Lol you will be the first one bunned next big storm and it will be well deserved.  What in the Sam Hell happened to you.  Eyeore

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Could have sworn,  matter of fact, I know, you have always been a big storm guy not a pack guy.  Lol you will be the first one bunned next big storm and it will be well deserved.  What in the Sam Hell happened to you.  Eyeore

Frustrated as all hell. That’s what happened. I am a storm guy. Even those have been weak sauce. At least in a super niño we can lose roofs in all rain events.

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38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’d say the majority on this forum are storm driven.  Pack is only for those whose lives depend upon it.

Or who like to play in it. I understand there are a lot of Charlie Brown window snow watchers but there are a lot of us who love the scenery while outside, play all kinds of ways in it ourselves with kids grandkids. I seriously think its time you prepare to move to the Disney land state and sit by the lake outside your trailer drinking an IPA and smoking a Cuban, grandpa

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Or who like to play in it. I understand there are a lot of Charlie Brown window snow watchers but there are a lot of us who love the scenery while outside, play all kinds of ways in it ourselves with kids grandkids. I seriously think its time you prepare to move to the Disney land state and sit by the lake outside your trailer drinking an IPA and smoking a Cuban grandpa

You realize we don’t live in an area that sustains pack for any extended period historically.  Microclimates excluded.

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If i wanted to watch snow fall from the sky to be gone the next day i would buy a snow globe, I want to see how high and how long we keep it around.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If i wanted to watch snow fall from the sky to be gone the next day i would buy a snow globe, I want to see how high and how long we keep it around.

Having to drive 100 miles a day like I do would with constant snow would drive me nuts 

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If i wanted to watch snow fall from the sky to be gone the next day i would buy a snow globe, I want to see how high and how long we keep it around.
Same. I just have a hard time staying positive when things don't go our way

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You realize we don’t live in an area that sustains pack for any extended period historically.  Microclimates excluded.

Yeah that doesn’t mean we don’t like snow pack. But since it’s not a sustainable thing around here, we take the big storms. Much more exciting too. I mean I love winter with the good sustainable snow packed. Don’t get me wrong. But, is it realistic? Not really.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Frustrated as all hell. That’s what happened. I am a storm guy. Even those have been weak sauce. At least in a super niño we can lose roofs in all rain events.

I'm collecting tons of computer model data for a possible significant storm (snowstorm?) for the Northern Mid-Atlantic to New England. This might happen by late month. It's taking a lot of time, but I feel that it might pay off. 

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This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum

 

Brooklynwx

 

"The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases."

 

1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada.

 

497776501_02111918zgefs500mbanom168-360.gif.64e3824307d09730c6a519f64c3df13f.gif

 

This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame:

 

1870127578_02111918zgefs2mtempanom168-312.gif.210dbdc1da3b5824d3ccab2be2f490f3.gif

 

There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase."

 

2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. 

 

258817622_02111918zgefs500mbanom312-384.gif.2186282501e3657b94a7790a5204e000.gif

 

Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition.

 

Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. "

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Why does everything have to be "historic?"

Because this period might be ?

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Why does everything have to be "historic?"

Because Louis Uccellini and Paul Kocin said so?

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Why does everything have to be "historic?"

We live in the age of marketing and hyperbole.  It starts at the top.  I think it is related to the way social media creates a certain kind of competitive energy.  It is probably also related to the fact that Milleniels are now the largest generational cohort.  I'm looking forward to when we move away from this, and I think it will happen in the next few years; the rubberband will snap back.  It isn't really sustainable.

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