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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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1 hour ago, Wilpo Snowhole said:

Looks like maybe a few inches here Monday night into Tuesday.

Welcome to the forum. Couple other members from Wilpo on here.

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5 hours ago, canderson said:

Is the polar vortex not happening? It looks cold next week but no colder than it was last weekend. Highs in the mid to upper teens don’t make a polar vortex. 

Polar vortex is definitely happening, its just the question of how much it dumps south into PA.. which models have been toying around with the last couple days. 12z models today has the Euro as colder than the GFS. Wed-Fri looks to be the brunt of the arctic air intrusion with Thursday as the absolute coldest. For Thursday GFS had high singles for while Euro looked debatable if it reached 0 in H-burg. Either number for a high is hard to do in the Sus Valley. Interior Central PA was in the -10s on both (Euro colder) on both models for Wed night. Wind and prospective snow on the ground could dictate an even lower bottom to low temperatures. 

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Polar vortex is definitely happening, its just the question of how much it dumps south into PA.. which models have been toying around with the last couple days. 12z models today has the Euro as colder than the GFS. Wed-Fri looks to be the brunt of the arctic air intrusion with Thursday as the absolute coldest. For Thursday GFS had high singles for while Euro looked debatable if it reached 0 in H-burg. Either number for a high is hard to do in the Sus Valley. Interior Central PA was in the -10s on both (Euro colder) on both models for Wed night. Wind and prospective snow on the ground could dictate an even lower bottom to low temperatures. 

If we get a 4 to 8 event definitely looking much colder.

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This is also NAM 10-1 ratio, & Kuchera ratio would more than likely bump these amounts up a bit.

NAM looks interesting as it develops a low further south and looks like it goes negative tilted.


.
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I think its just alot of uncertainty. I think are chances are good. It Looks like we still can still hit a few homers soon if things don't suppress to much to my empty brain.   There are a few flakes flying out there now other then me.

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5 hours ago, 2001kx said:

I'm assuming things aren't looking good as it is dead in here.

The Euro really lessened the threat for the lower and eastern areas of the state...Americans still going for 3-5" in LSV and 4-6" most of the rest of the state.  NAM has no snow for far SE LSV though.   Euro really is 3-5" of Partly cloudy for S Central PA.

 

8773E06A-1D56-4307-8B02-8958A68702E9.png

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Just measured 1" of fresh powder - looks like it's over until the front moves through. And that is looking pretty healthy on radar, but plenty of time for it to either fall apart or separate to go around State College. ;) 

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Anybody on this forum live in Bedford? We talk about Pittsburgh getting shafted, Bedford seems to take the fist about as much as Pittsburgh. The NAM verifying would agree.

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Good agreement between the 12z GFS & Canadian for our Tuesday snow this week.

The next frame on the Canadian wasn’t available, hence the difference in end time on the 2 maps, but the precip was through in CTP with both posted maps.

I would take 4 inches of snow followed by a few days of frigid temps to preserve it !

6ADBCB01-1025-467B-86E7-6986A0746FA5.png

7423CA3D-9F7A-4C01-AFA8-E8F2A6C24CB4.png

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29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good agreement between the 12z GFS & Canadian for our Tuesday snow this week.

The next frame on the Canadian wasn’t available, hence the difference in end time on the 2 maps, but the precip was through in CTP with both posted maps.

I would take 4 inches of snow followed by a few days of frigid temps to preserve it !

6ADBCB01-1025-467B-86E7-6986A0746FA5.png

7423CA3D-9F7A-4C01-AFA8-E8F2A6C24CB4.png

Bring it Blizz. Need winter to come back and stay for Feb. it would be nice to starting getting a cold active pattern again. Some southern stream love. 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The ending dates & times are different on those 2 maps posted above. 

Different offices right? Which makes it more confusing.

It seems every office ends their maps at different times.

Buffalo snow map ends at 1:00 am.

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15 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Picked up 4" overnight..didn't know we were supposed to get that much.

Geez well that'll be quite the insurance policy if Tuesday's snow doesn't work out. 1.3" down here this morning.

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22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Geez well that'll be quite the insurance policy if Tuesday's snow doesn't work out. 1.3" down here this morning.

just shy of 4"

 

 

4.jpg

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