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Minnesota_storms

January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

LOT is explicitly forecasting the all time record low max to be broken in Chicago.  With it still being 3 days away, the potential is there for further downward adjustments.

or upward. :grinch:

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37 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

or upward. :grinch:

Well, anything is possible lol.  It is noteworthy though because the NWS is typically conservative with forecasting records, and we're talking about an all timer. 

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We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities?

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7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities?

Temperatures are going to be at a point where it’s not only a risk for older people to be outside, but pretty much anyone. I hope some businesses take that into consideration before opening, especially when they aren’t going to have much in the way of business.

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11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities?

Airlines already offering free changes on Wednesday

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47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The FV3 is still like a coldpocalypse.  Has about -37 at ORD on Wednesday.  

Crazy. Will be fun to see the HRRR temps over the next couple of days. 

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46 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Crazy. Will be fun to see the HRRR temps over the next couple of days. 

Oh yes.  It can be aggressive over snowpack.

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14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

I actually wonder if the NWS offices are gonna possibly put the "THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION" tag on some of the WCW's that get issued

Usually I like my PDS watches to be of the tornado variety but I'd be okay with a PDS Wind Chill Watch/Warning.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the bitter wind chills have arrived early in Iowa.  Knoxville currently has a wind chill of -54 courtesy of a biting 750kt north breeze.

dfgdf.jpg

Hahaha, what is that ~860mph? 

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Hahaha, what is that ~860mph? 

Yeah like 863mph lol.

On a serious note the Euro continues to indicate max (or I guess min lol) potential may be Thu morning.  Ridge axis moves in and calms winds over a very deep snow pack.  WAA will already be taking place off the surface, but we've often seen a lag in the reflection down near the surface in a powerful arctic air mass in prior events.  It actually got colder than the 00z, and now shows -35 to -39 from the QC northwestward through north-central IA.  Simply amazing.

If the timing of the ridge axis is correct it will just come down to if there's any clouds streaming in from the west with that incoming WAA.

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So here's my first call for Wednesday's low at ORD. 

I have spent the last couple days looking at the models and looking back at historic cases, and based on those things, I believe any guidance showing a low warmer than -25 is probably too warm.  So then the question is how low?

Progged 850 mb temps and the amount of expected snowcover at ORD and upstream generally match or exceed the coldest historic cases.  In this case, the coldest temps aloft also come in during the night/early morning, so pretty good timing.  It was tough coming up with a number given the variance in the guidance for 2m temps, and that is where the historic cases were helpful.  

I'm going with a low of -29 to break the all-time record low of -27 from 1/20/1985.  I'd be lying if I said I had a lot of confidence in that particular number, and I certainly didn't want to stray too far above an established all-time mark (here's looking at you FV3).  I would give about a 60-70% chance of the record being tied/broken, so more likely than not but still a very reasonable chance that it comes up a little short.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So here's my first call for Wednesday's low at ORD. 

I have spent the last couple days looking at the models and looking back at historic cases, and based on those things, I believe any guidance showing a low warmer than -25 is probably too warm.  So then the question is how low?

Progged 850 mb temps and the amount of expected snowcover at ORD and upstream generally match or exceed the coldest historic cases.  In this case, the coldest temps aloft also come in during the night/early morning, so pretty good timing.  It was tough coming up with a number given the variance in the guidance for 2m temps, and that is where the historic cases were helpful.  

I'm going with a low of -29 to break the all-time record low of -27 from 1/20/1985.  I'd be lying if I said I had a lot of confidence in that particular number, and I certainly didn't want to stray too far above an established all-time mark (here's looking at you FV3).  I would give about a 60-70% chance of the record being tied/broken, so more likely than not but still a very reasonable chance that it comes up a little short.

Should have a contest for Chicago's low and high that day and maybe other areas. Not often we get cold like this to toy around with.

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12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Should have a contest for Chicago's low and high that day and maybe other areas. Not often we get cold like this to toy around with.

Good idea

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Crazy. Will be fun to see the HRRR temps over the next couple of days. 

Probably will show some -40's somewhere at a nearby colder location.

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For Weds 1/30 I will take lo -30 for a nice round number and to one-up Hoosier and a hi of -20 for crank-to-eleven levels of raw suffering freezepocalpyse

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5 minutes ago, sokolow said:

For Weds 1/30 I will take lo -30 for a nice round number and to one-up Hoosier and a hi of -20 for crank-to-eleven levels of raw suffering freezepocalpyse

You want to qualify the -20 as daytime high in case of a midnight high? :guitar:

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I have spent the last couple days looking at the models and looking back at historic cases

Thanks for doing and sharing the research and analysis. I have a question about snowcover ....
How does the quantity of snowcover matter, given the cases of >=3" ?
I've only come up with two most important impacts of any snowcover. One is for providing a cold surface of less friction for cold air masses to move over on their way south; depth of cover wouldn't matter at all. The other is as an insulator/reflector of radiant heat; of this I'm more uncertain on the impact of snowcover depth, but I'm not groking any significant difference between 3" and 9".

 

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10 minutes ago, whoosh said:

Thanks for doing and sharing the research and analysis. I have a question about snowcover ....
How does the quantity of snowcover matter, given the cases of >=3" ?
I've only come up with two most important impacts of any snowcover. One is for providing a cold surface of less friction for cold air masses to move over on their way south; depth of cover wouldn't matter at all. The other is as an insulator/reflector of radiant heat; of this I'm more uncertain on the impact of snowcover depth, but I'm not groking any significant difference between 3" and 9".

 

Good question.  There are diminishing returns to the impact of snow depth as the numbers get bigger.  Having 0" or 6", having 2" or 8", having 18" or 24", all are a difference of 6" but that difference matters a lot in the first case, less in the second case and I would say virtually no impact between having 18" or 24".  

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I read before in an afd from Maine, multiple times, that fresh snow is far better than an older snow..or, as we call in the north 'Elder Snow'. Typically Elder Snows have more temperature related armor str def.  The sun's dps, which...unfortunately...is more able to hurt ranged builds like 1:20 snow, archers, and fresh, cute snow were all recently rebalanced in a patch by god where the loss of snow was compensated by a corresponding loss in temperature at night - which was seen as uniformly meaningful if a bit academic. On the other hand, warriors, as well as snowcover, that use bulking and reflective agents such as dust, pollutes and other means of ****ing with radiational heat loss are nerfed under this new patch, and while still somewhat capable of skewing some of these measurements are nonetheless balanced by being exposed to a lack of radiational cooling under clear night skies.

 

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I never thought that these readings would ever be seen in my area in my lifetime.Well I was wrong. I wonder how cold the temps/windchills are going to be at our normal cold spots like lone rock,black river falls,or camp douglas.

Screenshot 2019-01-27 at 6.36.19 PM.png

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Still a ways away, but I'm gonna go with an all-time record low at MLI on Thursday of -33.  Only concern for me is upstream clouds that can sometimes come in a little faster than expected.  At this point all other ingredients are pretty nicely lined up for an extraordinary low temp event for the area.  

I have a feeling many of us will be looking back at this thread in the years to come.  

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