40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Razor I'm leaning toward sticking with my 8-14" n of the pike....I could honestly see either end of the range verifying here. However I'm also expecting a colder tick either at 00z or tmw....so I will have to see. Either way, I am going to have one dense pack after this event....reminds me a lot of VD Day 2007 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 for CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: On BUFKIT for KHVN it is definitely sub 32. Put down 4-5 inches of snow with .4-.6 of ice on top and we'll have problems down here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 that nasty warm tounge just above 850 is killing us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 not a good start to the 0Z models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game.... If you can't have ratios, hope for the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing. Looks in good agreement with the EURO..about 8-10" here, then a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'll take that run...that's a nice pounding here for about 6 hours. Actually looked better than 18z for the forcing. That’s what I thought ! I want to see the sounding for the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That’s like a foot on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: not a good start to the 0Z models.. If you want over a 1', sure....buts its fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That's a pounding of snow up here, Similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: That’s what I thought ! I want to see the sounding for the sleet. BOS looks good through about 09z ad then 12z is pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Robust parting gift with snow. Sunday afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 TBH, I'd rather have 9" of snow, then a ton of sleet...then 9" followed by a meteorological ego stroke amid P Sunny skies for having remained all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Qpf in line with the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you want over a 1', sure....buts its fine for us. The front end looked a bit better...it had a more defined bent back midlevel WF passing through us so better lift. That's what you want to see for big time rates on a front ender. It can also slow down the advance of the sleet too a bit more than guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 sorry read that wrong.. yeah looks like close to 10" here before we sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Congrats Brian and Jeff on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 0.3C at the sfc at HVN at the warmest. That's big signal for ZR given model biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS looks good through about 09z ad then 12z is pellets That’s 6 hours of 1-2/hour snow before the PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 51 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too. I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one. That is insane. That thermal gradient is crazy. Worth saving that one to the weenie folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, I'd rather have 9" of snow, then a ton of sleet...then 9" followed by a meteorological ego stroke amid P Sunny skies for having remained all snow. I'm going for pure frozen LE in this pack given my bare ground status. I'll be totally content with 8" of snow followed by a scalping that gives another 3-4" of sleet. We can pile up the currier and ives fluffer nutters all late January and February, but I want a big time base so I don't see grass until at least april fools day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Instead of cutting qpf, Nam ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3km is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM has slowly been figuring it out over the past 24 hours. Last night's 00z and 06z backed off quite a bit on QPF up north but the 12z/18z/00z have now been going in the right direction. A couple more runs and the QPF will match the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". not sure you need to cut, other models are similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There's a funny irony about this in that the low has finally agreed upon to not come on land anywhere yet the ptype transition it's penetrating farther north west every recycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: For me NAM 1.6" all snow All snow surface temp 10F. So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM and it brings me to 1" qpf. Ratio 15:1 thats 15". The snow is going to end here with temps near 0F. BTV in the CPV funneling from the north may even be below zero while snowing. This is a vastly overlooked aspect of this... how cold it will be while snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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