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40/70 Benchmark

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh, the average cost per person is $3 a year. I could find worse uses for the money. You can gripe about things government spends tax dollars on, but honestly weather is not one of them.

Yes it's money well spent but I feel like these big companies make dont use the data as they should and instead try to put their own "spin" on it, hence taxing them more.

 

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft.

This whole winter has been like nostalgia for the 80s, because almost every big event (outside of April 1982 and February 1983) that happened here in the 80s was like this.

 

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4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

This was only an hour ago.  They just lowered it again at 5:10!  Wish they’d get their act together......

How about we be happy with 12-20"?

It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF.

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm 

Kev as you probably know sleet gets measured as snow (at lower ratios, like 2:1).  Frozen precip totals (what we call "snow totals") are actually a measurement of both snow and sleet added together.  Freezing rain (glaze) gets measured and put in the books as just rain and only added to the liquid precip totals, not the frozen ones.

 

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4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

This was only an hour ago.  They just lowered it again at 5:10!  Wish they’d get their act together......

More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time.  18 vs 20", not that big of a deal.  My expectations are 14/15" anyways.

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Just about equally likely at this point that QPF busts as low as a borderline warning event as it is over 1.5" for SNE. 

Your Pike north line, that gives you goalposts of safely like 5 to 15" right now. Not a bad spot to be. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

How about we be happy with 12-20"?

It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF.

Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more!  Just a little grouchy....  I’m good!  ^_^

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1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more!  Just a little grouchy....  I’m good!  ^_^

Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent.

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2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time.  18 vs 20", not that big of a deal.  My expectations are 14/15" anyways.

Been expecting 14” here for quite some time, then they blast it up to 22 and then dropped it a short time later.  I was NOT following my own rule of keeping it in a range.  Maybe I can blame it on lack of coffee, not the fine folks in Gray.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent.

Just as long as we get MORE than them!  :P

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Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent.
Todd Gutner going 18-24"

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Have so cool temps with your snow up in Maine.  18Z on Sunday.  I'll take the under on my p/c -5* on Monday night.  

gfs_T2m_neus_11.png

I would go colder for the Cape too, there is no way with that much cold air present, we don't plummet too.  I doubt we get out of the mid to upper 30s on Sunday.

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Todd Gutner going 18-24"

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

24" is on the table, but I wouldn't be banking it at this point. I'm fine with that being the upper end of the range though. 

I'm more comfortable with the 12-18" range at the moment.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh, the average cost per person is $3 a year. I could find worse uses for the money. You can gripe about things government spends tax dollars on, but honestly weather is not one of them.

Wasn't griping - just pointing out that the private corps do pay a "fee".

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I always thought that the NAM is usually the model that sniffs out the mid level warmth that often results in pingers making it farther north. And now it keeps trending south as several of the other models bring the warmth further north. I know it’s usually good at recognizing low level cold being a meso and all. Interesting last hour model battle.


.

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