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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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This trend is over.
I'm confident of that.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some slight improvements for the GTG tmw.
You guys can watch well I put my arrow maps together :weenie:


8-10 your area is very realistic. And further north of the border, 10-16 is spot on.

Boston metro always had less buffer. I think 4-8 will accurately cover current guidance as well as a probable Messenger shift east. My initial call for Boston was 6-12 but those higher #s are looking less likely.

Wish I could join the GTG, would be fun to analyze and learn in person
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

As evidence of how warm the 00z suite was, WPC's 10th percentile distribution on top of our snowfall  (9 out of 10 time you should expect more than this number) for a location like ASH went from around 9" at 12z to 3" at 00z. 

Have the models really been that far off or is it that the rates will be so high near the changeover zone that a difference of a couple of hours or 20 miles could mean the difference between 9" and 3"?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Have the models really been that far off or is it that the rates will be so high near the changeover zone that a difference of a couple of hours or 20 miles could mean the difference between 9" and 3"?

What it means is that there are just enough models now spitting out the lower range values that the 10th percentile of the curve has lowered to around 3".

Previously so many models were high QPF and cold that 9" was the lower end of that tail.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

What it means is that there are just enough models now spitting out the lower range values that the 10th percentile of the curve has lowered to around 3".

Previously so many models were high QPF and cold that 9" was the lower end of that tail.

Thanks, how much of a change was there in the median between those two sets of runs?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, how much of a change was there in the median between those two sets of runs?

The median values are like 10-11".

The high end values are actually still quite high, because if it stays all snow there is still 18" potential. So their range just got wider. 

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Oh boy oh boy oh boy

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the ice. Temperatures plunging into the upper teens to
  lower 20s by late afternoon will result in a flash freeze and
  wet roads becoming icy. Any mixed precipitation will end as a
  period of snow Sunday afternoon. Travel will be very difficult
  and hazardous tonight through Sunday afternoon, along with po
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