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nj2va

January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

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17 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I will admit I’m a bit concerned about how the Pacific looks on the ensembles once we get into February. What is it that is suddenly breaking down that big ridge on the GEFS? I don’t recall seeing that a couple of days ago.

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

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10 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I will admit I’m a bit concerned about how the Pacific looks on the ensembles once we get into February. What is it that is suddenly breaking down that big ridge on the GEFS? I don’t recall seeing that a couple of days ago.

This is pretty much why I was discussing why I wanted to see a pv around the Hudson Bay region. Though we may deal with occasional bouts of suppression when the pv comes in strong it will help to mitigate a not so good PAC as it tends to force the trough eastward into the central and eastern CONUS. It also provides a readily supply of cold to help offset the PAC flow.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

Oh dear.:cliff:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

My thoughts exactly.  Most here could care less about the MJO and for good reason sometimes but it is affecting the PAC pattern in the LR.  Fortunately cold will have already overwhelmed the pattern and the MJO will be decaying once again toward the end of the forecast period....if forecasts are correct.  I think we have enough drivers in our favor to blunt the effects but it may keep us from getting those 'epic' looks.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

Your post was good but was it so good you had to post it twice? :D

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

Is it fair to say that look could change back as quickly as it eroded?

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

Is this just the GEFS or us the EPS showing it also?

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25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is it fair to say that look could change back as quickly as it eroded?

the new pattern hasnt even started yet and the backedge is already showing up

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53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

This is pretty much why I was discussing why I wanted to see a pv around the Hudson Bay region. Though we may deal with occasional bouts of suppression when the pv comes in strong it will help to mitigate a not so good PAC as it tends to force the trough eastward into the central and eastern CONUS. It also provides a readily supply of cold to help offset the PAC flow.

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

ambig.thumb.png.c0cae9b6dea4012f718a1a299ef9ff55.png

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58 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

My thoughts exactly.  Most here could care less about the MJO and for good reason sometimes but it is affecting the PAC pattern in the LR.  Fortunately cold will have already overwhelmed the pattern and the MJO will be decaying once again toward the end of the forecast period....if forecasts are correct.  I think we have enough drivers in our favor to blunt the effects but it may keep us from getting those 'epic' looks.

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, frd said:

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

Winter is canceled I guess. 

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1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

FV3 was pretty good. Gfs seems to be becoming the new NAM at long range.

it definitely earned some street creds from this past event.

 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

it's all relative I think...  It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question.  Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted.  And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

D7K1WdE.png

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

We don't need perfection or anything close for it to snow over the next few weeks. Yeah those epic looks were pretty on paper, but they very rarely ever materialize as depicted. The one feature I am watching carefully now is the NAO. I don't buy the monster block looks the GFS/GEFS throws up at range. It has a propensity to do that and often times nothing even close materializes. It would be nice to see the EPS going a little more gung-ho with a strong west-based block.

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What's up with the double posting, thats strange. 

Never said winter is over, but something is up, and has been up, that is causing the Pac to crap the bed.  This is not the first time this winter it has happened.  

I know about the MJO decaying into the COD, and all that stuff, but we get these reshuffles and then when you think everything is all lined up, things go downhill yet again.   

I imagine everyone has thier own reasons on the causes.

Everyday I read great updates and posts from respected weather pros and experts that indicate things should align better to promote a +PNA -AO and a -NAO but then I look at the EPS hour 360 and see that the Pac does not look good.    

Maybe more time is needed.

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

ambig.thumb.png.c0cae9b6dea4012f718a1a299ef9ff55.png

If that block pinches off and retrogrades to Siberia say goodbye.  That’s what killed 11-12 right around this time as well.  We finally got something briefly on the west coast and then it turned more into just a blocking high up over AK, pinched off and retrograded and it was over 

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

it's all relative I think...  It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question.  Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted.  And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

D7K1WdE.png

 

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poof, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We don't need perfection or anything close for it to snow over the next few weeks. Yeah those epic looks were pretty on paper, but they very rarely ever materialize as depicted. The one feature I am watching carefully now is the NAO. I don't buy the monster block looks the GFS/GEFS throws up at range. It has a propensity to do that and often times nothing even close materializes. It would be nice to see the EPS going a little more gung-ho with a strong west-based block.

I quest for answers I guess, because at times its frustrating not to know the why behind the causes. But, weather is science and this hobby has its ups and downs like all things.

Really thought and to a degree still feel we may get the epic look on one of the weeklies run to actually happen in real time. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poor, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

Did you glance at either the gefs or the eps?  Starting today...the entire run is cold.  

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poof, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

Looks OK, no?

 

94C2B640-449C-40D8-AFA6-8AADC2E9CD90.png

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

f that block pinches off and retrogrades to Siberia say goodbye.  That’s what killed 11-12 right around this time as well.  We finally got something briefly on the west coast and then it turned more into just a blocking high up over AK, pinched off and retrograded and it was over 

The other thing, is what you bring up here. The orientation and location of the HL blocking has changed as well.  

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is it fair to say that look could change back as quickly as it eroded?

Yep and it's fair to say that we get could get a decent event next weekend or the week after. 

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A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a large area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

ensplume_full.gif.42819c9f92ffc22ef6276ef7c649c8a5.gif

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a largwe area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

ensplume_full.gif.42819c9f92ffc22ef6276ef7c649c8a5.gif

The sickest part of that is we broke the record for longest stretch in phase 5 last month.  That would potentially rebreak it if it verified 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a large area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

ensplume_full.gif.42819c9f92ffc22ef6276ef7c649c8a5.gif

I would focus on whats in front of us. Its going to get pretty darn cold, and remain pretty active. Multiple chances over the next 10 days or so. 

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