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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hrrr looks good even up here tomorrow 

AC4C897A-7ED2-4D95-B794-4FBAAA5C993C.thumb.png.cce20e3a0876388ed4924b502f8dabd9.png

HRRR and NAM have been hinting at a CCB deformation band forming over Baltimore metro northern md And southern PA for a few consecutive runs now. NAM has done well so far. This too could happen with proper coastal influence. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

You’ll be alright in Bowie, sir. Dc proper and southern MD should be okay. South of 66 could run into problem if this storm truly has trended 25+ miles north. Models showed the potential of a warm layer intrusion in the SE quadrant of the storm for days. Think many assumed it would be all snow but more coastal development can easily rush warm air on the SE flank as cold air wraps around the NW. 

Yeah I think I will be alright this time. Models don’t show a flip for me but it’s closer than I thought. 

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21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nice.  What was your call for DC again?  I believe you called for around 6?  Or am I wrong?

 Went 4-5” yesterday as a final call. We’ll most likely top that measurably. But I don’t like revisions. 

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Near Baltimore City, I'm probably somewhere around 3" on the grass. I will say though, roads look like they're going to be okay. Even my side road was getting white but salt truck cleared it right up. I have to imagine the main roads are fine. 

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6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Very true. The whole metro coast really did get in on a lot of good action. Really stood out here with the over 100” in the second half for KBOS. Something I’ll never see again most likely 

Don't bet on it. You will see it again in your lifetime, likely will be bested several times. The weather is changing. Unusual snow events will increase, both in intensity and in frequency.

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7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m facing the math that it’s likely to snow for another 16 hours at 0.3 to 0.7”ph so I will let you do the math.

Thats just wow, like Unbelievable , when you consider that places like Dale City are probably already in excess of 3 inches otg already. Just look at whats inbound. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Its like You gotta be kiddin me 16 times half an inch an hour and some hours could easily be an inch an hour, on top of what many places in N VA/MD/DC already have otg?

Whomever gets in on the Conditional Symmetric Instability banding will find out firsthand what a crush job truly is.

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Thats just wow, like Unbelievable , when you consider that places like Dale City are probably already in excess of 3 inches otg already. Just llok at whats inbound.

There’s already reports of 2-3” all over central Maryland as well. Like I suspected, Montgomery county to Howard county would benefit from a solid location (south enough for QPF- North enough for great snow crystal growth) 

The heavy stuff is knocking on our doorstep again! If NAM is to be believed, we are in for another 5-8” or so

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3.7" and rates just picked back up. May be up to 5" after this round of heavier stuff moves through.

Undeniable trend this year with southern shortwaves packing more juice than models were showing even in the short range. What a year around here. I still laugh at last winter's dire Armageddon drought thread. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

3.7" and rates just picked back up. May be up to 5" after this round of heavier stuff moves through.

Undeniable trend this year with southern shortwaves packing more juice than models were showing even in the short range. What a year around here. I still laugh at last winter's dire Armageddon drought thread. 

You ready for the death band? Cause I sure as heck am. 

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36 minutes ago, Snow36 said:

Jebman, sorry for butting in. You and your posts literally symbolize the epitome of the enthusiasm that drives half the board to be weather enthusiasts. I honestly don't think this forum [and the predecessor] would be the same without your posts. Don't trivialize them! 

I second this sentiment!

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The 850 mb rich area that was pulling gulf moisture is finally getting close. Notice out west its going more NNE. We are almost in the peak soon within the next 3 hours or so

WUNIDS_map (19).gif

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