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cyclone77

Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019

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Positive trends the last few runs for a system this upcoming weekend.  GFS and FV3 both look the most robust, as they deposit a fairly wide swath of accumulating snows from MO to OH and beyond.  Also a corridor of warning criteria snows as well closer to the OH river.  The Euro/GEM/ICON models show a storm as well, although not quite as impressive as the GFS brothers.  There have been positive trends on the Euro though, as it hasn't been showing much until recently.  

I very rarely start storm threads, so hopefully this one works out lol. :snowing:

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The GFS and GGEM are fairytales. The UKMET is reality. Matter of fact, the GGEM and GFS have been so bad this winter, they should think about shutting them down to save money.

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Positive trends the last few runs for a system this upcoming weekend.  GFS and FV3 both look the most robust, as they deposit a fairly wide swath of accumulating snows from MO to OH and beyond.  Also a corridor of warning criteria snows as well closer to the OH river.  The Euro/GEM/ICON models show a storm as well, although not quite as impressive as the GFS brothers.  There have been positive trends on the Euro though, as it hasn't been showing much until recently.  

I very rarely start storm threads, so hopefully this one works out lol. :snowing:

Oh no you didn't.  

j/k

We'll see what happens.  We probably continue the overall suckfest for some time after this window but hopefully it pans out for some.

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17 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The GFS and GGEM are fairytales. The UKMET is reality. Matter of fact, the GGEM and GFS have been so bad this winter, they should think about shutting them down to save money.

You forgot your calling card;"The pacific jet will shred everthing to tatters"

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One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4".    Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us.    High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. 

But hell, at least it's something to track.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4".    Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us.    High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. 

But hell, at least it's something to track.

The story of our lives in this neck of the woods.

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

You forgot your calling card;"The pacific jet will shred everthing to tatters"

Funny thing is both 12z GGEM and Ukie are just jumping on board with the storm idea.

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I have zero faith in the gfs.  If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over.  Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs.

 

Slight exaggeration I think

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9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I have zero faith in the gfs.  If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over.  Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs.

 

The 0z Euro run looked like it was starting to cave to GFS/FV3. We'll find out soon if the 12z continues that or reverts.

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31 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Funny thing is both 12z GGEM and Ukie are just jumping on board with the storm idea.

The Ukie is heavily opposed to the storm idea.

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Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z.  Trough was deeper and better heights in front.  I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120.    I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS.

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20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z.  Trough was deeper and better heights in front.  I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120.    I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS.

:lol:....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive.     Euro probably gonna win this.

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:lol:....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive.     Euro probably gonna win this.

Little less phased and HP is a little stronger and south.

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Basically the pac jet is prepared to shit a major turd onto the CONUS after 96 hours. This suppresses the energy and it struggles to develop. The slower, further west the STJ comes, the greater chances of suppression and non development.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

:lol:....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive.     Euro probably gonna win this.

FWIW the 18z FV3 looks even better than it's 12z for you guys, with warning criteria snows from southern IL through the southern halfs of IN/OH.  

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

FWIW the 18z FV3 looks even better than it's 12z for you guys, with warning criteria snows from southern IL through the southern halfs of IN/OH.  

that'd be great if the FV3 didn't have a verification score similar to a cras ensemble member.

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Guys, this is probably a cripplingly stupid question, but can someone tell me what FWIW means?

For What It's Worth

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