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WxUSAF

January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

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1 minute ago, J.Mike said:

Mappy, FWIW my criteria for a great snow is 8”+. Metro shuts down outdoor tracks at 8”. 

well yeah, mine is at least snowball and/or snowman making snow. but technically... :whistle: 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, I love that we are getting snow and I'm more than satisfied with 2 to 4, but I'm just ****ing irritated with the Nrn stream trying to screw us.

i like the placement of it, but it needs to be weaker than modeled.  not sure how much i buy the high barreling down like it's showing.

in other news, for those not in the obs thread, snow showers incoming?  just got kinda gray out.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll go with if there's a central VA jack @ 72 hours then expecting a 50-100 mile north shift as the leads close will be right more often than wrong. Even Dec did that... but it wasn't enough... A lot of folks on the northern edge got surprised with big totals though. IMO- if we are locked into a light/mod event @ hr72 and there's a big jack through central VA then it's coming. At least to Rockville anyways. Sorry PSU...

You can have 8" and I will be totally happy with 5.  Just no crazy sharp cutoff that rarely does actually happen between you and me.  January 2010 might be the only time I can actually remember getting fringed when the cities did well.  Only 10/15 miles south of me got 5" though so a slight adjustment to that storm and I would have been very happy too.  

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, I love that we are getting snow and I'm more than satisfied with 2 to 4, but I'm just ****ing irritated with the Nrn stream trying to screw us.

would you rather have the pac puke pattern back?

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6 minutes ago, Clueless said:

To clarify:  Is it true the Euro models the NS better than the GFS?

I've heard the opposite but those biases are kinda old and there have been several upgrades to each since then so I have no idea if it's still true at all or just a weenie thing some say to justify their snow goggles.  

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Just popping in to say although my winter of unmitigated disaster continues, I’m pulling for all your backyards.

May you bask in the glory of cold powder this weekend. 

Also I swear, if you get a good snowfall and find a way to whine I will bury you. 

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd dig deep and analyze the run but the euro will be out in less than an hour so I'll just completely toss the run and wait. 

4 members showing a foot plus at this lead time shows the potential if all the parts come together. Didn’t say any total whiffs either so it could be worse.

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Best GEPS run yet.  15/21 members get me at least 1" of snow (at 10:1 ratios), although only 10/21 get me at least 2". 

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At HR 36 on the Euro, good changes out west as the SS SW is more consolidated early on.

 

Edit to add: Resulting in height heights out front.

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Just to remind folks as the Euro is running, last night's 0z was BETTER than the 12z run yesterday we were all thrilled with.  So if it stepsback/weakens/absconds/wtfs, keep that in mind.

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6 minutes ago, cae said:

Best GEPS run yet.  15/21 members get me at least 1" of snow (at 10:1 ratios), although only 10/21 get me at least 2". 

Always a good sign when stubborn guidance starts to cave towards consensus. 

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HR 54.  Compared to 0z, higher heights out front in the midwest and stronger SS SW.  Northern stream over NE about the same.

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Just now, yoda said:

To my weenie eye this looks good

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png

That is way further north than the gfs

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just popping in to say although my winter of unmitigated disaster continues, I’m pulling for all your backyards.

May you bask in the glory of cold powder this weekend. 

Also I swear, if you get a good snowfall and find a way to whine I will bury you. 

pm JI for his address.....

 

:)

 

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

I thought that last night’s Euro was a step back/less consolidated that 12z????

Bumped up precipitation at least, which is all we end up caring about in the end.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro looks really good @ hr72. No doubt it's the best model @ h5 d3 and under. 

Yeah, much better axis/tilt.  Oh the drama....

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