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NorEastermass128

Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They aren't idiots...but they factored it in incorrectly. Just like they did the la nina last season...I explained why their thoughts were flawed in November, and reiterated why they were in March.

I'll do it again this season.

And you correctly factored in the El Nino?????

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This winter sort of reminds me of the 1968/1969 Winter. In other words dead in both December and January, then February all of a sudden 2 coastal bombs that were generally 20"-30"+ for the heart of our viewing area and then the first half of March.  I guess the moral of the story is anything is possible.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll answer this in a month. It will be clearer then. I'm not doing the pissing contest.

Well then. perhaps you should wait a month to see if the NCEP factored in the El Nino correctly.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll answer this in a month. It will be clearer then. I'm not derailing the futility thread.

Happy New Year Ray.  Don't worry, I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet.  I do actually understand the pattern that is in the back of a lot of peoples minds and know what's going on. I really want to see it work out for you and the rest of the snow weenies here.

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5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Happy New Year Ray.  Don't worry, I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet.  I do actually understand the pattern that is in the back of a lot of peoples minds and know what's going on. I really want to see it work out for you and the rest of the snow weenies here.

Happy New Year, bro.....and Great Snow 1717..same to you.

We'll see what happens.

How much did you get in Wilmington, Greg?

.5" in Methuen...

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40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happy New Year, bro.....and Great Snow 1717..same to you.

We'll see what happens.

How much did you get in Wilmington, Greg?

.5" in Methuen...

Probably around the same just got home from work and despite the rain the lawn is coated and the drive way has a good coating of slush. Wasn’t expecting that.

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8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And you correctly factored in the El Nino?????

We don’t know the answers yet obviously but to automatically paint El Niño warm is just wrong.   Some our most severe winters in the past 70 years being were during ninos, most with warm periods like we’ve experienced.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still drinking?

Prob pounded a few to get rid of the hangover. 

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

We don’t know the answers yet obviously but to automatically paint El Niño warm is just wrong.   Some our most severe winters in the past 70 years being were during ninos, most with warm periods like we’ve experienced.

CPC's JFM outlook isn't warm.  It looks okay, I think.  

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m pulling for you 

 

Come late January and if I sit where I am at currently, I will too. 

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12 hours ago, dryslot said:

Futility? Seriously? on 01/01??

Yeah, I mean reality is that we do the bulk of the accumulation between 12/15 and 3/15.

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They aren't idiots...but they factored it in incorrectly. Just like they did the la nina last season...I explained why their thoughts were flawed in November, and reiterated why they were in March.

I'll do it again this season.

And on the NCEP side of things, all they do is forecast temps and precip for the season. So you can easily have temps average above normal, yet your above normal snowfall works out as well. 

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2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Futility is now at 47 days.  My last accumulating snow was 11/15/18.

My son thinks winter runs from Halloween to Thanksgiving. 

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Stop....I mean ya I had some drinks last night but these posts were this morning.....at least theres this great thread for it so I don't get into weenie trouble......lol

You have to admit this is just a terrible start.......I don't count that November thing....

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still drinking?

 

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob pounded a few to get rid of the hangover. 

 

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24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I mean reality is that we do the bulk of the accumulation between 12/15 and 3/15.

And on the NCEP side of things, all they do is forecast temps and precip for the season. So you can easily have temps average above normal, yet your above normal snowfall works out as well. 

I'm pretty sure they missed the huge ending, though. Also begs the question...how do we know from a temp and precip forecast that they have forecaste "wall to wall pacific jet"?

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17 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Stop....I mean ya I had some drinks last night but these posts were this morning.....at least theres this great thread for it so I don't get into weenie trouble......lol

You have to admit this is just a terrible start.......I don't count that November thing....

 

 

Great start, terrible last 6 weeks. Great second half.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure they missed the huge ending.

Last year?

They did have above normal for all of New England, greatest chances towards CAR. CAR was +4.2, CON +0.4, and ORH -1.2 so I wouldn't call that a wild bust. Precip was above normal for all except The County in ME. That was a little more scattershot, with ORH up, CON down, and CAR up. 

It also depends on lead time, those were the 1 month lead forecasts. But even the longer lead times (3 month) ended up verifying as slightly above normal for spring. 

Regardless, they don't forecast snow and even inferring snow from the combination of temps and precip can be dangerous. But we know that was well above normal for the end of winter.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Last year?

They did have above normal for all of New England, greatest chances towards CAR. CAR was +4.2, CON +0.4, and ORH -1.2 so I wouldn't call that a wild bust. Precip was above normal for all except The County in ME. That was a little more scattershot, with ORH up, CON down, and CAR up. 

It also depends on lead time, those were the 1 month lead forecasts. But even the longer lead times (3 month) ended up verifying as slightly above normal for spring. 

Regardless, they don't forecast snow and even inferring snow from the combination of temps and precip can be dangerous. But we know that was well above normal for the end of winter.

I think the issue is that for forecasting purposes, probability forecasting just isn't that useful. It doesn't tell you a great deal about the evolution of winter.

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