Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 What is the date stamp for week 4? Is that Feb?Jan 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: What is the date stamp for week 4? Is that Feb? Last week of Jan is basically epic and never lets up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 That is some bitter cold at 372 in Canada. 480dm. It’s something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Last week of Jan is basically epic and never lets up Well it can’t stay awful for ever I suppose. I mean it can but I bet it won’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: LOL! Damn near the entire eastern half of the Pacific has a negative anomaly. Just ridiculous. I think December 2015 rang and wants an encore. Please do not mention that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I see 4 troughs. It's a little negative responsive. The Pacific is not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Arctic power front incoming at 384. Hell if we are going to call bad long range op output we can call the weenie ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: What is the date stamp for week 4? Is that Feb? I'd actually rather not talk about the weeklies right now (turns head and pukes). Cant help but say it....JI may end up right. How many great 2-3 week looks have been touted... Reading PSU's assertion that sometimes the tellies/indies dont really have the final say obviously has merit, but I scratch my skull at how much infulence the PAC has over other forcing mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just my $.02 but from my reading and research lately there are SSWEs going on in tandem at both poles. This is apparently a rather rare event. Couple that with the near-record SSW SD event in our hemisphere and imho this is like a powder keg with a lit fuse. We are entering unchartered atmospheric conditions and to me it is clear why the models are struggling this severely and showing some rather unique and odd looks. Something is going to give over the next 2-3 weeks because I dont think anyone knows what to expect from these happenings at both poles and how they will effect this patterns globally. I think there is a 50/50 chance we either head into a highly anomalous pattern in the East which favors a 'cancel winter' type pattern OR something very wintry that we are all going to look back on and use as a measuring stick for future seasons. I just have a hunch things are going to bust wide open in a big way and it is really going to be worth the wait. Like I said tho its damn near impossible to say which way but some highly anomalous weather is coming to the US in a few weeks with wild swings and a tight gradient/boundary. I am holding out hope and I normally would have tossed the towel in by now. Heck even my winter outlook argues for much BN snowfall but somewhere in the East is going to pay for this run we r having....the atmosphere plays a balancing act it always has and always will and no I'm not referencing 'atmospheric memory' either lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: I'd actually rather not talk about the weeklies right now (turns head and pukes). Cant help but say it....JI may end up right. How many great 2-3 week looks have been touted... Reading PSU's assertion that sometimes the tellies/indies dont really have the final say obviously has merit, but I scratch my skull at how much infulence the PAC has over other forcing mechanisms. Hope although not a plan is all we have right now. The winter is far too young at this point to write it off on Dec 31st. We could see some massive turnaround just past mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 This winter is a carbon copy of 09-10 except that the dec 19 blizzard went to Richmond. Jan 30 to feb 10 will be epic 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, cbmclean said: Please do not mention that month. Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010. But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Last week of Jan is basically epic and never lets up Wonder how far we can kick the can? Honestly, Feb into March should be our best period for snow chances, esp given the late start to this Nino. Yes, as of today, ENSO is still offically Neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Hi all I'm just pooping in here but the gfs is awful I heard 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Hi all I'm just pooping in here but the gfs is awful I heard Poop away lad. Turd dropping in this thread has not been uncommon! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: This winter is a carbon copy of 09-10 except that the dec 19 blizzard went to Richmond. Jan 30 to feb 10 will be epic Well at least Jan 1-29, 2010 wasn't totally awful either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hi all I'm just pooping in here but the gfs is awful I heard It gave some hope at the end. All is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Wonder how far we can kick the can? Honestly, Feb into March should be our best period for snow chances, esp given the late start to this Nino. Yes, as of today, ENSO is still offically Neutral. I'm keeping it simple and just tracking the Pac. Until a stable +pna or -epo gets going we're going to remain in a shutout. Im not doubting that a flip to epic can happen. But it cant even get started until the pac jet lays off a direct shot into western north america. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 h5 at 384. That looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm keeping it simple and just tracking the Pac. Until a stable +pna or -epo gets going we're going to remain in a shutout. Im not doubting that a flip to epic can happen. But it cant even get started until the pac jet lays off a direct shot into western north america. Yeah, we need a Nino instead of a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 This is starting to look like 13-14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What is the date stamp for week 4? Is that Feb? Calendars are awesome math can be cool too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Fantasy gfs implies that the strat and trop not only couple but work in our favor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 This is starting to look like 13-14. Lol. You troll better than leesburg04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fantasy gfs implies that the strat and trop not only couple but work in our favor That's damn near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 That's damn near perfect.Went from hysteria to utopia in 45 minutes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010. But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter! Actually I'm from the SE forum. My group seems to have gone into hibernation after our snow so I have to come here for actual analysis. Jan 16 was just rain for us., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Weeklies save February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's damn near perfect. Went from hysteria to utopia in 45 minutes Utopia? Lol. Maybe if it wasnt 15 days away. We're totally screwed for at least 10 more days. Utopia wont start until we're tracking a discrete event inside of 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It gave some hope at the end. All is not lost. I know it reemerged at the end of run but was nice to see the ridge N of Hawaii weaken substantially in the mid range which to me is more important than a 384 hr prog. Start hammering that PAC pattern little by little. Still plenty of time its not even Jan 1 technically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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