Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: We are now getting into range to view the euro 4x daily.. That's great. More chaos! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looks like the models are centering in on a more centralized track. I am thinking 8 to 14 inches for much of New York, with the southern Dacks and northern Catskills being the champions with more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 WSW, pretty generic wording for now...to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 213 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170715- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0003.190119T1800Z-190121T2300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson- Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 213 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Light snow will begin as early as Saturday morning. Snow will become heavy Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Snow will then transition to lake effect Sunday night and continue through Monday. At this time, greater than 7 inches of snow is possible. Gusty winds and arctic air will also produce blowing and drifting snow and wind chills well below zero. * WHERE...All of western and north central New York. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well that looks like crap.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well that looks like crap.. IDK. I hate to disagree with you but I think it’s pretty ok. Good consolidation where we need. Sure a tick NE would be nice but this is solid for all but extrem NW areas. Tight though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If they were going NE i would agree lol But im not so sure they are.. Eps mean snowfall is not terrible but it has dropped for the 3rd straight run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Some of this may also be from friday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Control run a little better then the OP.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We got greedy. Lots of time for strengthening and a NW tick. This is a good set up still. NWS must feel good about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow that low is really far south...if that moves more easterly than NE this may become a non event altogether Come on man seriously, a non event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Consensus is about 1"-1.25" for Oswego county, even at 10-1 thats a foot.. That friday storm is like an inch or so now, so almost all of that precip is from this weekend system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Control run a little better then the OP.. We’re gonna be right on the cutoff in BUF gonna either be really good or really bad. If I had to guess right now I’d bet the models are gonna continue SE trend and hen last second NW trend within 36 hours to get us pretty much back to where hey are right now. I think it’s gonna end up an upper tier advisory or low tier warning for BUF which wouldn’t be the worst thing but sucks when this was looking totally awesome 24 hours ago but that’s the name of the game when we start storm watching 156+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Consensus is about 1"-1.25" for Oswego county, even at 10-1 thats a foot.. That friday storm is like an inch or so now, so almost all of the precip is from this weekend system.. I’d feel a lot better where you are then here as someone said several pages ago the N and W sides of these systems often have sharp gradients and can smoke Virga for quite a while wasting away some of the lesser QPF were modeled to get. Still time though but just not a good feeling in my gut right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Don't forget lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Control run a little better then the OP.. If I recall correctly, that graphic looks very similar in placement to what we were seeing as a general consensus a few days ago, before it drifted N&W. So basically I think we are back to status quo ante? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think ROC eastward is nearly a lock at this point because they have some wiggle room even if this thing goes further SE a bit especially with lake enhancement along the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: ukmet is getting there UKMET is straight garbage has supr timing issues let NE sweat out the garbage, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Lmaooo Makes no sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Lmaooo Makes no sense.. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NWS is smart, broad brush till more confident, 7" for all for now which is a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Its an error, has to be lol KART and fort drum are at 9"-10" respectively.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.” I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 now I see what u mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 From the BUF AFD: While the main deformation zone with this storm should line up over Pennsylvania... deep lift over our region will still be provided Saturday night through both H925-70 frontogenetic forcing and strong H25 jet support. Since H85 temps over Lake Ontario will be in the vicinity of -12c...the counties that line its south shore will ALSO receive SIGNIFICANT lake effect enhancement as the steering flow will back from 060 to about 020. Temperatures will fall into the single digits Saturday night with wind chills falling below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I think ROC eastward is nearly a lock at this point because they have some wiggle room even if this thing goes further SE a bit especially with lake enhancement along the south shore. You know anywhere from buffalo north to the lake Ontario shoreline will get much more snow than say Lackawanna or hamburg due to LE...ive witnessed it with every storm and is always underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some of this may also be from friday.. It also is only including true moisture output from the system itself. This does not include lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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