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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
213 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0003.190119T1800Z-190121T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
213 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Light snow will begin as early as
  Saturday morning. Snow will become heavy Saturday night and
  continue into Sunday. Snow will then transition to lake effect
  Sunday night and continue through Monday. At this time, greater
  than 7 inches of snow is possible. Gusty winds and arctic air
  will also produce blowing and drifting snow and wind chills well
  below zero.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&
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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Control run a little better then the OP..

E745A0BE-F263-4221-8383-FB74C6464CD5.thu

We’re gonna be right on the cutoff in BUF gonna either be really good or really bad. If I had to guess right now I’d bet the models are gonna continue SE trend and hen last second NW trend within 36 hours to get us pretty much back to where hey are right now. I think it’s gonna end up an upper tier advisory or low tier warning for BUF which wouldn’t be the worst thing but sucks when this was looking totally awesome 24 hours ago but that’s the name of the game when we start storm watching 156+ hrs out. 

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Consensus is about 1"-1.25" for Oswego county, even at 10-1 thats a foot..

That friday storm is like an inch or so now, so almost all of the precip is from this weekend system..

I’d feel a lot better where you are then here as someone said several pages ago the N and W sides of these systems often have sharp gradients and can smoke Virga for quite a while wasting away some of the lesser QPF were modeled to get. Still time though but just not a good feeling in my gut right now. 

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10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Control run a little better then the OP..

E745A0BE-F263-4221-8383-FB74C6464CD5.thu

If I recall correctly, that graphic looks very similar in placement to what we were seeing as a general consensus a few days ago, before it drifted N&W.  So basically I think we are back to status quo ante?

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From the BUF AFD:

While the main deformation zone with this
storm should line up over Pennsylvania... deep lift over our
region will still be provided Saturday night through both
H925-70 frontogenetic forcing and strong H25 jet support. Since
H85 temps over Lake Ontario will be in the vicinity of
-12c...the counties that line its south shore will ALSO receive
 SIGNIFICANT lake effect enhancement as the steering flow will
 back from 060 to about 020. Temperatures will fall into the
 single digits Saturday night with wind chills falling below
 zero.
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20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I think ROC eastward is nearly a lock at this point because they have some wiggle room even if this thing goes further SE a bit especially with lake enhancement along the south shore. 

You know anywhere from buffalo north to the lake Ontario shoreline will get much more snow than say Lackawanna or hamburg due to LE...ive witnessed it with every storm and is always underestimated.

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