pawatch Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah MA forum is worried about serious icing down there. Verbatim we get some, but mostly snow. Its just one run, but I'd take it, mix or no mix. I wanna get on the board. 2.5" of moisture at what ratio will be another question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, daxx said: Agree, cmc is rain to Maine with some backside snow. with all due respect, the cmc has been moderately abysmal this year. Not saying its wrong, but....I'm just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Ditto. Biggest example of that was an incredible ice storm in January of 1994...about 10 days before the all-time record cold that hit these parts. I was in northern NJ for it but I experienced the same thing. Heavy freezing rain with a temperature of 16 degrees F! My friend who lived up in the extreme NW corner of NJ (High Point) had freezing rain and a temp of +4 F !!! Truly unbelievable, but for real. That's the storm I was referring to. When the record cold hit roads around my area were like driving on a washboard for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pawatch said: 2.5" of moisture at what ratio will be another question agreed. 10:1 may be tough as thermals are tricky south of I80, but our northern crew should be salivating at this run. Im holding hope as weve seen a southerly progression as we approach game time (so far this season), so I'm wondering if that is a new tendency to factor in. I sure hope so anyway (verbatim) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: That's the storm I was referring to. When the record cold hit roads around my area were like driving on a washboard for 2 weeks. The ice was everywhere and there was a TON of it. All the sidewalks solid ice. You couldn't walk on anything. On all the trees. Lots of damaged trees from such weight. Easily the worst ice storm of my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, canderson said: I'd think the intensity would overcounter any ZR right? Isn't ZR with heavy rain rates basically impossible? 10" of snow with 4" of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: with all due respect, the cmc has been moderately abysmal this year. Not saying its wrong, but....I'm just sayin..... Yep terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Would 15 other people want to chime in to tell me I was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pawatch said: 10" of snow with 4" of sleet. can someone add a "love" button? #glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 29 here since we're doing the age game lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, canderson said: Would 15 other people want to chime in to tell me I was wrong? My daughters both were screaming "what is canderson talking about!!! So that's 2 more... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: can someone add a "love" button? #glacier I agree with you on this and mentioned this last year...I'd almost prefer 1' of snow with a layer of ice than 18" of all snow. Staying power! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 BTW, we did a page of posts in 36 minutes ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree with you on this and mentioned this last year...I'd almost prefer 1' of snow with a layer of ice than 18" of all snow. Staying power! can i get an A-MEN!! btw, due to the average age of the board......you may not want to reference it as "staying power" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: BTW, we did a page of posts in 36 minutes ...… And not during a storm, no-less. It helps when you're retired and have nothing else to do but sit with the laptop on your lap and drink coffee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Would 15 other people want to chime in to tell me I was wrong? Why should we tell you what you already know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Unlike the rest of you bums, I have to work. I'm missing a lot of this. Somebody brief me: where do we stand currently? First person to answer with "on your feet" ends up in the Susquehanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Unlike the rest of you bums, I have to work. I'm missing a lot of this. Somebody brief me: where do we stand currently? First person to answer with "on your feet" ends up in the Susquehanna. Its up in the air..... edit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: can i get an A-MEN!! A-men. I am all about snow pack!! Get's me through periods with nothing to track. Track the cold/ hoping it doesn't get too warm and slowly watch my precious yard snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: It helps when you're retired and have nothing else to do but sit with the laptop on your lap and drink coffee. I work in the car business. (Sales) This tells you guys two things about myself. I have a lot of free time on my hands, while I "work" and I love snow. I say this because...when it snows, I have to help clear 100's of cars of it! Not fun, but I still root for every flake of snow, every time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Options: Comparison: Turn ON - Archives: Turn ON ] System CMC-GDPS CMC-RDPS NCEP-GFS NCEP-NAM UKMET-G ECMWF-HRES DWD-ICON JMA-GSM Run Mon 14 Jan 12Z Mon 14 Jan 00Z Map Classic Precipitation 2m T 10m Wind 850-hPa T 500-hPa Vorticity 250-hPa Wind Ukie on Sunday morning Well that is not good for snow. That high is much too far west as has been stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, pawatch said: 10" of snow with 4" of sleet. The Valentines storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Now that I've had a chance to look at the ICON...which only goes out to 180 every 12 hours and to 120 the off hours...when comparing last night's 0Z run to this morning's 12Z there was a substantial improvement in the amount of frozen precip from the storm. Last night gave a few inches followed by a fair amount of rain then ending as minor snow. This morning it goes into snow and snows gangbusters for a decent chunk of the storm. It does go over to either rain or freezing rain for a while as the storm makes its closest approach, then ends as minor snow. Very nice run to see and to add to watching throughout this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, daxx said: Options: Comparison: Turn ON - Archives: Turn ON ] System CMC-GDPS CMC-RDPS NCEP-GFS NCEP-NAM UKMET-G ECMWF-HRES DWD-ICON JMA-GSM Run Mon 14 Jan 12Z Mon 14 Jan 00Z Map Classic Precipitation 2m T 10m Wind 850-hPa T 500-hPa Vorticity 250-hPa Wind Ukie on Sunday morning Let's nudge the High a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Friday sets the weekend table for us, so hope that one stays under. We need that boundary south. Very true Nut, may I call you Nut? haha. Everyone should look through the models. CMC cuts the Thur/Fri system way north= we get a crap weekend storm. GFS has the Thur/Fri system running through southern pa=mixed bag south/northern guys do well still. ICON has the Thur/Fri system running below the maxon dixon=good weekend snow results. Our fate will be decided with the Thur/Fri system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Well that is not good for snow. That high is much too far west as has been stated. You are right. The thing is it much less amped than it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Now that I've had a chance to look at the ICON...which only goes out to 180 every 12 hours and to 120 the off hours...when comparing last night's 0Z run to this morning's 12Z there was a substantial improvement in the amount of frozen precip from the storm. Last night gave a few inches followed by a fair amount of rain then ending as minor snow. This morning it goes into snow and snows gangbusters for a decent chunk of the storm. It does go over to either rain or freezing rain for a while as the storm makes its closest approach, then ends as minor snow. Very nice run to see and to add to watching throughout this week. Yes I saw that. Friday’s system doubled snow amounts. It’s far from a wrap but not a disaster. We are close and need a south trend like we’ve seen so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, daxx said: You are right. The thing is it much less amped than it's 00z run. Less amped also means less diggy. Less diggy means further south is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Less amped also means less diggy. Less diggy means further south is possible 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Less amped also means less diggy. Less diggy means further south is possible You bet, definitely an improvement. Still mostly wet for now. Euro up next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 33 minutes ago, JTrout said: Very true Nut, may I call you Nut? haha. Everyone should look through the models. CMC cuts the Thur/Fri system way north= we get a crap weekend storm. GFS has the Thur/Fri system running through southern pa=mixed bag south/northern guys do well still. ICON has the Thur/Fri system running below the maxon dixon=good weekend snow results. Our fate will be decided with the Thur/Fri system. Lol. Of course you can call me Nut. Everyone else does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now