CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18Z ICON is colder on storm#1 vs. 12Z. This morning it showed the precip changing over to non-frozen before ending Friday morning (over LSV). 18Z now keeps LSV totally snow start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z gfs is some snow to ice then to a lot of rain for lsv. It has trailing energy which gives us snow on backside. We all know how that goes. Overall a more amped run than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: 18z gfs is some snow to ice then to a lot of rain for lsv. It has trailing energy which gives us snow on backside. We all know how that goes. Overall a more amped run than 12z. We are trending the wrong way right now. The players are not on the US map yet so still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 18Z ICON is colder on storm#1 vs. 12Z. This morning it showed the precip changing over to non-frozen before ending Friday morning (over LSV). 18Z now keeps LSV totally snow start to finish. 18Z GFS is a clear changeover to rain for Thursday night. Gets mixed back up to State College which is a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 18Z GFS is a clear changeover to rain for Thursday night. Gets mixed back up to State College which is a surprise. Not before depositing 2" of snow to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 And here is the 18Z GFS for the totals of storm#1 and #2 (...note...does not look like a ton of rain to me...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Not before depositing 2" of snow to MDT. No doubt just a bit surprised to see the mix line getting that far north. Come Friday morning, just taking the GFS verbatim, it would just be a wet drive in the mid to upper 30's. For some reason I thought this first system was a slam dunk for us but apparently not so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: And here is the 18Z GFS for the totals of storm#1 and #2 (...note...does not look like a ton of rain to me...) Trust me there is a good amount of rain on this run. The backside is giving you those numbers. Take the backside out and it's not close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 FWIW for Thurs/Fri NAM appears to be an all snow event for everyone. ICON also stays all snow GFS taints but still gets even LSV into 2'' territory, and taint is after much of the QPF has fallen. Fv3...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Trust me there is a good amount of rain on this run. The backside is giving you those numbers. Take the backside out and it's not close to that. Quick eyeballing it would suggest 1-2" of just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Trust me there is a good amount of rain on this run. The backside is giving you those numbers. Take the backside out and it's not close to that. I dont want to agree, but he's right. GFS gets wet for a while, but if believable, has a nice backend thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: FWIW for Thurs/Fri NAM appears to be an all snow event for everyone. ICON also stays all snow GFS taints but still gets even LSV into 2'' territory, and taint is after much of the QPF has fallen. Fv3...... Fv3 look decent for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I dont want to agree, but he's right. GFS gets wet for a while, but if believable, has a nice backend thump. Didn't the Euro depict a trailing wave today at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The models might be on to something with backside. Euro has it, gfs has it and now fv3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Quick eyeballing it would suggest 1-2" of just plain rain. 1" wet maybe, but 2" is a little much. Toggle throught the precip panels. Good front end and back end frozen. 5 or 6 hr period LSV goes wet before we flip back to something frozen this is for storm 2 btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: The models might be on to something with backside. Euro has it, gfs has it and now fv3. I've never put much faith in backside wins after changeover, but this one is juiced, so hey who knows...it has/can happen. My focus is still on #1 evolution as it sets up #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 264 for the score. Classic Gorilla in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Didn't the Euro depict a trailing wave today at 12z? yep. Thats what helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The best times to see significant backend events are when a sharpening trough with true arctic air are racing into the area. The speed at which the cold air is advecting in Sunday morning is incredibly rapid. There's a 20 degree temperature drop from 35 to 15 in 6 hours!! I'm definitely no expert. But, I have seen a few really good backend events and the real juicy ones have the arctic air rushing in with the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: I've never put much faith in backside wins after changeover, but this one is juiced, so hey who knows...it has/can happen. My focus is still on #1 evolution as it sets up #2 Agree back side of storms are usually a flop. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: The models might be on to something with backside. Euro has it, gfs has it and now fv3. It’s Not wrap around back side snow. It is 2 weak waves of low pressure. The first one heads towards PA & gives us snow to mix to rain. The second wave develops to our south & rides up the coast as the Artic air arrives. There is a ton of moisture & the models will bounce around a few more days with the boundaries. I think many would sign up for this 18z GFS Kuchera ratio snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Something to be reminded of. Thurs/Fri has a rather similar and progressive track much like what just happened in the MA over the weekend. While no coastal pops to give a double whammy, track IMO is subject to southerly adjustment. Especially if one believes in the atmospheric memory voodo. Watch the evolution in the next couple runs and we'll see if this has any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, daxx said: Agree back side of storms are usually a flop. I Yes, they usually flop when we get some major coastal that is supposed to retrograde and throw back moisture as it bombs out. This weekend is a very different set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 264 for the score. Classic Gorilla in the Gulf. That storm is just a beaut. I mighta ran that loop a couple times just to see how perty she is. Fits the period that has been touted as "go time" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: The best times to see significant backend events are when are sharpening trough with true arctic air are racing into the area. The speed at which the cold air is advecting in Sunday morning is incredibly rapid. There's a 20 degree temperature drop from 35 to 15 in 6 hours!! I'm definitely no expert. But, I have seen a few really good backend events and the real juicy ones have the arctic air rushing in with the wave. Yes, we have won with this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Something to be reminded of. Thurs/Fri has a rather similar track to what just happened in the MA over the weekend. While no coastal pops to give a double whammy, track IMO is subject to southerly adjustment. Especially if one believes in the atmospheric memory voodo. Watch the evolution in the next couple runs and we'll see if this has any merit. To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That storm is just a beaut. I mighta ran that loop a couple times just to see how perty she is. Fits the period that has been touted as "go time" for us. ...and it brings frozen precip down to the Florida border if not into it. A real classic storm. A bit of a fast mover so totals are not epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer. and to your point, look at the HP in the NE during storm #1. It is SLIGHTLY stronger and holds just a bit longer to keep white from turning wet. Watch that HP in the next couple days, as it alone can bring us to the promise land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: ...and it brings frozen precip down to the Florida border if not into it. Brings frozen down to the Florida border. A real classic storm. A bit of a fast mover so totals are not epic. 540's to central florida right after. Trough is headed for Cuba.... needless to say, whatever we can get in the next couple events, wont be going anywhere if that look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gefs mean is definitely colder than the op. Have to wait for individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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