Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Read in the NYC forum that the Deep Thunder model supports the Ukie in burying PA - BOS in snow. Love to get the Euro on board next. (It was a red tagger that said it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 CTP discussion for this weekend is worth a read IMO: Quote .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... *Potential major winter storm for the holiday weekend followed by arctic cold snap and dangerous wind chills into early next week Friday into early Saturday looks quiet as focus will shift to potential major winter storm for the weekend. Confidence remains high for winter storm impacts this weekend, however the details of the storm are still not clear. Much of this is a result of shifts in the speed and track of the storm which will play a crucial rule in determining precipitation types and amounts. At this time, areas north of I-80 are most likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall with amounts around a foot possible. A zone of mixed precip (snow, sleet, freezing rain and even plain rain) appears most likely at times south of I-80 to the MD line. Expect more frozen ptypes (snow/sleet) between I-80 and I-70/76 with more freezing or plain rain ptypes south of the PA Turnpike. Even without the exact details, this storm will likely result in significant disruptions to travel and daily activities so please be prepared and plan accordingly. Brutally cold, arctic air will blast into the area later Sunday early next week. Blend of ensemble guidance shows low temps Sunday night in the single digits above and below zero. Gusty winds combined with the frigid airmass should result in potentially dangerous wind chills in the -10 to -20F range. After taking a leave of absence over the last month and a half, winter is poised to make a big comeback with odds heavily favoring cold weather/below average temperatures through the second half of January into early February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm. Hopefully things turn around at 12z. Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall. As you move north and west it gets better. Upstate NY does great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm. Hopefully things turn around at 12z. Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall. As you move north and west it gets better. Upstate NY does great. Yep...though the Ukie is interesting enough to keep some hope alive. It's still early in the game as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Maybe the true headliner will be the cold next week and not a significant snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Part of NWS discussion. At this time, areas north of I-80 are most likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall with amounts around a foot possible. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=ooffs still plenty of time for most everyone to get in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, daxx said: Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm. Hopefully things turn around at 12z. Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall. As you move north and west it gets better. Upstate NY does great. At least the severe ice situation appears to be not materializing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 36 minutes ago, daxx said: Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm. Hopefully things turn around at 12z. Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall. As you move north and west it gets better. Upstate NY does great. Horst just issued a new 7 day forecast and man is beating the heavy rain drum for Saturday night... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst just issued a new 7 day forecast and man is beating the heavy rain drum for Saturday night... He's also in a Twitter fight with some met from NJ who says we might get 2' of snow. Horst said it's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, canderson said: He's also in a Twitter fight with some met from NJ who says we might get 2' of snow. Horst said it's impossible. Money on Horst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night. 1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA. Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS. Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, canderson said: He's also in a Twitter fight with some met from NJ who says we might get 2' of snow. Horst said it's impossible. Oh wow, didn't know that. Juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night. 1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA. Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS. Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast. was just looking at 500/700/850 panels for 12z Nam for that very thing. Just need to hope the GFS caves to the meso's. Doesnt have to cave a lot, just a bit. Sorry, but I really really like Horst, and he's usually more right than wrong.....but I'm hoping for the latter (as we all are). Not expecting 24", but a more frozen variety is my bar. Boy do I wish I was in state college to NC Pa for this one over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 and at further look, the 700's and 850's on the 12k NAM are definitely a tick south of 6z. I'll take that as a good start for nooners. Just looking for trends, not perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: was just looking at 500/700/850 panels for 12z Nam for that very thing. Just need to hope the GFS caves to the meso's. Doesnt have to cave a lot, just a bit. Sorry, but I really really like Horst, and he's usually more right than wrong.....but I'm hoping for the latter (as we all are). Not expecting 24", but a more frozen variety is my bar. Boy do I wish I was in state college to NC Pa for this one over the weekend. A big heck yes to every word of this. I'm fine with some snow and then a wintry mix...just please not hours of heavy rain and temps in the 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW, the German's bring the 534 down into CTP for Thurs/Friday and are all snow for the LSV. Obviously 540 also ticked south. When you dont have much to work with ....every little bit helps. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: FWIW, the German's bring the 534 down into CTP for Thurs/Friday and are all snow for the LSV. Obviously 540 also ticked south. When you dont have much to work with ....every little bit helps. hehe 12z icon is just not giving up still showing snow and ice for the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: 12z icon is just not giving up still showing snow and ice for the weekend storm. I think I read somewhere that the Icon is partially funded by area milk and bread companies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 As of now, even the "warm" GFS isn't sending temps into the 40's and obliterating the previous snow. The LSV goes up to 34, maybe 35 tops before the bottom falls out. Rain falling on snow with a temp of 34 is not going to obliterate the new snowpack. The GFS is also notorious for warming things up too much at the surface. I'm about to see what the ICON is showing for storm #2 and will report back. It's been consistently colder, and now along with its next door neighbor the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hmm...only out to 75. Got a ways to go yet. It gives 1 to 2 for us Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, daxx said: 12z icon is just not giving up still showing snow and ice for the weekend storm. Where are you accessing the ICON? I'm on TT. Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Where are you accessing the ICON? I'm on TT. Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe. Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Where are you accessing the ICON? I'm on TT. Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe. Pay site. Stormvista is very fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Pay site. Stormvista is very fast Ahh. Got 'ya. I will keep it free and wait...for either it or for your commentary...lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 icon now shows snow into central MD for #1. Nice tick south on snow maps (remember, I'm searching for trends for the weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The icon on TT skipped right over the storm with the radar maps I was looking at but here is the end result...a bit north of the UK for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 ICON also brings critical thickness slightly south and has 534 now touching northern LANCO. Prob 30ish mile shift. For my trends so far... NAM - check ICON - check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store. We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us. We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good. 12Z GFS is bringing low #1 into Pitt! Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 out to 66 GFS is following the trend for boundary layers. Gonna be a nailbiter for weekend me thinks. HP is doing its job and CAD signal is showing signs of helping for storm #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store. We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us. We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good. Yes we will probably rain. We can hope for more front and back end of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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